My biggest fear now

[Pappy13]

miami has been looking in the 99 cents store for qb replacements. where other teams that have found one have shopped at nordstrom's.

I won't disagree, but a lot of the teams that have been shopping at Nordstrom's have failed to find an elite QB too. Shopping at Nordstrom's doesn't guarantee you anything except that you are gonna pay top dollar.

[Cathal]

I won't disagree, but a lot of the teams that have been shopping at Nordstrom's have failed to find an elite QB too. Shopping at Nordstrom's doesn't guarantee you anything except that you are gonna pay top dollar.

True, but I'd still rather the team go pay top-dollar on someone who should be a star, instead of taking more of a gamble on someone else.

[dolfan13]

the numbers say that chances are after the first round, a pick on a qb is basically throwing it in the garbage.

i don't know what the reason is behind this is, but the singular most important position on the field more often than not is picked in the first round of the draft.

sure there is not guarantee you find a qb with the pick, but in a qb driven league, you have to at least try once in a while. you pay top dollar to personnel folks to make these decisions. otherwise you might as well have monkeys making draft picks, like the dolphins have had for some time now.

[Spider-Dan]

the numbers say that chances are after the first round, a pick on a qb is basically throwing it in the garbage.

Actually, the numbers really say that a pick on a QB, period, is usually throwing it in the garbage.  But let's look at 1st round QBs.

Since Peyton Manning was picked, here are the QBs taken in the 1st round:

98: R. Leaf (epic bust)
99: T. Couch (bust)
99: D. McNabb (multiple Pro Bowls)
99: Akili Smith (bust)
99: D. Culpepper (traded in what should have been his prime)
99: C. McNown (bust)
00: C. Pennington (above average)
01: M. Vick (cut in what should have been his prime)
02: D. Carr (bust)
02: J. Harrington (bust)
02: P. Ramsey (bust)
02: C. Palmer (multiple Pro Bowls)
03: B. Leftwich (mediocre)
03: K. Boller (bust)
03: R. Grossman (mediocre)
04: E. Manning (?)
04: P. Rivers (multiple Pro Bowls)
04: B. Roethlisberger (franchise-quality)
04: J. Losman (bust)
05: Alex Smith (bust)
05: A. Rodgers (elite)
05: J. Campbell (mediocre)
06: V. Young (cut in what should have been his prime)
06: M. Leinart (bust)
06: J. Cutler (traded in what should have been his prime)
07: J. Russell (epic bust)
07: B. Quinn (bust)
08: M. Ryan (franchise quality)
08: J. Flacco (above average)
09: M. Stafford (above average)
09: M. Sanchez (mediocre)
09: J. Freeman (above average)
(excluding '10 and '11 because more time is needed to evaluate)

So of the last 32 first-round QBs selected, exactly 3 have started a Super Bowl and won, and approximately 7-8 teams (including the aforementioned 3) got a good return on their investment.

[tepop84]

QBR is a garbage stat.