Maine's 2012 MLB forecast

[MaineDolFan]

American League:

East
Winner:  Tampa Bay 99-63

Central
Winner: Detroit 94-68

West
Texas: 95-67

Wild card: Yankees 97-65
Wild card II*:  LA Angels 94-68
*I expect this to get pushed through

Two teams who will be much better than you expect:
Toronto (will approach 90 wins) and Cleveland (will approach 90 wins).
Teams facing a bleak year:  Twins and White Sox

National League:

East

Philadelphia:  100-62

Central

St. Louis:  91-71

West

San Francisco:  94-68

Wild card: Atlanta (90-72)
Wild card II:  Washington (88-74)

Dark horses: Cincinnati (might break .500) and Pittsburgh.
Teams that will tank this season:  Milwaukee & Marlins

[Sunstroke]

Teams that will tank this season...Marlins?

Taking a quote from the AS cartoon, The Boondocks... "That's a bitch move, Santa."

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Tiggers
AL West:  Angels

Wild Card: Tampa Bay

NL East: Marlins
NL Central: Reds
NL West: D-Backs

Wild Card: Phillies

[MaineDolFan]

The Phillies won 102 games last season and return intact, + Papelbon.

The Marlins added a SS that gets hurt when the wind blows, have an incumbent SS that cries when the wind blows (that now needs to move to 3B and is crying about it) and added a 13 game winning SP in Buehrle.  Oh, and they managed to win 72 games last year.  Good for dead last.  30 games out of first.

They are suddenly good for +30 wins?  Based on what?  Carlos Zambrano?  The only thing that added was the "WWE" element to this team.

The Phillies will be better.  Atlanta will be better.  The Nationals will be better.  The Mets and Marlins will circle the drain.  But it will be fun to watch.

[Tenshot13]

I'd post what I think, but it would look identical to Maine's post.  I'm digging the Rays love!

[Brian Fein]

I'm going to bookmark this post for reference in September...

I know you hate the Marlins, but jeez.  A little realism would be nice as well.

[tubba marxxx]

The only guarantee I'll make is that Detroit will win the AL Central.  Everything else is too tough to call with all the "familiar faces in different places"


Some talking out of my ass predictions:  The Red Sox will win the AL East and the Mets (que the homer pick) will finish at .500 or better

[Spider-Dan]

Two teams who will be much better than you expect:
Toronto (will approach 90 wins) and Cleveland (will approach 90 wins).

Why do you say this?  (I don't care about baseball and only follow it when the Indians are good.)

[MaineDolFan]

Why do you say this?  (I don't care about baseball and only follow it when the Indians are good.)

First - I think the benefit from a (mostly) weak division.  They have a lot of games against the likes of the Twins, White Sox and Royals.  This helps a lot.  However, I will break down a few reasons why I like the Indians a lot this year:

Pitching:

I think they have a really strong starting four Ubaldo Jimenez, Justin Masterson, Josh Tomlin, and Derek Lowe.  Round that to five with Garland and they are looking really good.  I really like the Lowe pick up for this squad.  I know people are down a little on Ubaldo, but I love the kid.  You're talking about contact pitchers which brings me to another portion of this team I really dig...

The defense.

Cabrera and Kipnis and REALLY good at SS and 2B.  Masterson and Lowe will keep them very busy.  I love the Kotchman signing, he brings a decent bat to 1st (and a great glove).  I think Sizemore will have a bounce back year.

Bats wise - Cleveland was middle of the road on offense last year...and that was with a lot of AAA players and their "stars" (I say that loosely) hurt.  Choo should bounce back, I think (again) Sizemore will be okay.

I freaking LOVE Carlos Santana.  Holy crap, this kid is the goods. 

I like the bullpen.  I don't LOVE the bullpen, but I like it.  A lot.  Pestano, Smith, Perez, Hagadone...good arms out there.  Pestano is almost unhittable against righties.  Chris Perez is a pretty good option at the back end.

I think Cleveland is going to make some noise this year.

[bsfins]

^^ Garland is no longer with the Indians...( I know 5th starter,no big deal,but I thought I'd pass it along..)

http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ssf/2012/02/dan_wheeler_looking_to_fit_int.html

Almost the bottom of the page...
Parting ways:  Veteran right-hander Jon Garland is no longer an option for the Indians.  They had agreed on a minor league deal just before the start of camp pending a physical.
Garland, who underwent rotator cuff surgery last year with the Dodgers, was scheduled for the physical Monday. He did not take it and the Indians and Garland have parted ways.

[MaineDolFan]

Take him or leave him.  They have some decent options at 5, including Kevin Slowey - which might not be a bad pick up.

[MaineDolFan]

A little realism would be nice as well.

The team finished 30 freaking games out of 1st last year and is playing in a division with a team that won over 100 (A) and another that won close to 90 (B).  You do realize the division the Marlins are in, yes?  This isn't the NL Central we're talking about here.

And I am unrealistic?  Sure. 

No, you're right.  I am sure the Marlins will suddenly win 93 this season.  It's been done before, a 30 game swing.  I don't know when, but I'm sure it's happened.

[Sunstroke]

No, you're right.  I am sure the Marlins will suddenly win 93 this season.  It's been done before, a 30 game swing.  I don't know when, but I'm sure it's happened.

I know that the O's improved 33 games from 1988 to 1989, and the 2004 Tigers improved 29 games from 2003 to 2004. There are probably a few more out there at that level...I just don't have time to dig.

The Marlins added a SS that gets hurt when the wind blows, have an incumbent SS that cries when the wind blows (that now needs to move to 3B and is crying about it) and added a 13 game winning SP in Buehrle.  Oh, and they managed to win 72 games last year.  Good for dead last.  30 games out of first.

They are suddenly good for +30 wins?  Based on what?  Carlos Zambrano?  The only thing that added was the "WWE" element to this team.

If your point is strictly to spin the Marlins as negatively as humanly possible, then mad props to ya. If accuracy was the target, then it should be noted that...

1) The SS that Miami signed is healthy as a horse, and a quick look at his injury history shows no wind-related medical issues.

2) The SS moving to 3B (Hanley) is doing anything BUT crying about it. Please post any links you may have that say otherwise...I could list a ton from the past week that supports the "no-crying" point.

A few semi-important details you left out...that didn't fit with your "piss on the cheerios" approach:

* A core of outstanding young hitters (Mike Stanton, Gaby Sanchez, Logan Morrison Chris Coghlan, et al) that are all on the improving side of the player development hill.

* A core of good young starting pitchers including Josh Johnson (healthy now), Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco that are all better than the savvy veteran innings-eater (Buehrle) they signed this offseason

* Upgraded from one of the worst closers in the league (Nunez) to one of the best (Heath Bell)

* Signed a manager with a set of cajones larger than cherry tomatoes (Ozzie)

Aside from that short list, your assessment was spot on...






(edited to remove potentially offensive comment)

[Brian Fein]

Comparing the Marlins starting rotation from last year to this year is night and day.  Just that:

Last year:
Nolasco
Sanchez
Vasquez
Volstad
Bum du jour/Clay Hensley

This year:
Josh Johnson
Nolasco
Sanchez
Buehrle
Zambrano

When Carlos Zambrano is your #5 starter, you're in decent shape.  His problems were mostly mental, and he's still a decent-to-above-average pitcher when his head is right. 

And don't undersell the importance of Heath Bell.  Leo Nunez/JC Oviedo was 1-4 with a 4.06 ERA.  Great stats for a closer. 

And this is the same Marlins team that was 10 games ABOVE 0.500 at the end of May, 2011. 

I grant you, the Marlins were horrible last season, but I don't think they were wholly as bad as their record.  And, given the key offseason improvements without losing anyone critical, don't be surprised if they can swing 20-25 games and grab a wild card spot this year.

[SportsChick]

I am expecting a craptastic season from the Sox and hoping for the best

[el diablo]

At this point, I would take a wild card for the Braves. Hopefully Heyward's offseason work puts him on the right track.