Hyde5: Are the Dolphins just beating up bad teams?

[CF DolFan]

The month of November doesn't look very promising when you look at the stats. The teams we have beaten have a combined record of 10-21.  Take out the 6 Patriot wins and it gets much worse!!

By Dave Hyde FootballMiami DolphinsNFLNew York JetsJimbo FisherBlake BortlesAFC

The Dolphins offense averages 30 points in wins and 15.25 points in losses.
The Dolphins' November consists of playing four winning teams.
1. Are the Dolphins' results just reflective of the schedule? Are they beating up mostly bad teams and losing to winning ones? This is something an AFC scout wondered after Sunday's win in Jacksonville and is interesting to ask because for the next month they'll just facing winning teams.

Let's look at their record split by the opponents.

Record of teams they beat: 10-21 (New England 6-2; Oakland 0-7; Chicago 3-5; and Jacksonville 1-7. New England obviously would be the outlier in this general idea - a good team the Dolphins did beat).


Record of teams the Dolphins have lost to: 14-9. (Buffalo 5-3, Kansas City 4-3, Green Bay 5-3).

Let's break down some keys stats by wins and losses considering the apparent talent different in opponents. Consider:

Average points scored in wins/losses: 31.25/16.3.

Average opponent points in wins/losses: 15.25/30.

You expect some differences in bottom-line stats between wins and losses. But these are wild swings - roughly half the points allowed by the defense and half those scored in wins compared to losses.

Let's look at Ryan Tannehill's stats:

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In wins: 7 TDs, 3 ints, 8.0 yards per pass attempt.

In losses: 4 TDs, 3 ints., 5.6 yard per pass attempt.

So now they get a good opportunity to show these stats don't tell the story. As mentioned, the Dolphins' November schedule is against four winning teams: San Diego (5-3), Detroit (6-2); Buffalo (5-3); and Denver (6-1). Throw in the playoff (and tie-breaker) implications against San Diego and Buffalo and the month has added importance.


The Dolphins are doing, so far, what on some level is needed to have a good season. They're beating teams they should. Now we're going to find if they can do something more. We're about to find in the next month if they can beat some winning teams.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-dolphins/sfl-hyde5-are-the-dolphins-just-beating-up-bad-teams-20141028-story.html?track=rss

[Brian Fein]

Why would you "take out 6 Patriot wins?"  That's a ridiculous argument.

You play against your schedule.  Win the games you play, it doesn't matter.  The same can be said about most teams who have a bunch of wins against crap teams.  Those are games you are "supposed to" win.

Sad to see the media trying to crap on the team - again - even in "good times."

[MikeO]

The Patriots game counts! You can't cherry pick stats.

The Pats, Bills, and Jets all play the Raiders too....so not like we are the only one getting a winless team on the schedule. The whole article is stupid

[EDGECRUSHER]

Almost every team scores more points in wins than losses. Yes, we've beaten some bad teams, but so has everyone else. Look at Buffalo, they beat Detroit without Megatron and the Lions kicker was so bad he was released the next day. They played like shit, but it still counts like us vs. the Jags.

They were actually terrible against the Jets too, but it's hard to lose when you are given 7 turnovers. This article just states the obvious, doesn't mean much. We beat the Pats and we beat the Packers until Philbin ran in like Randy Orton with a chair and cheated us out of a win.

[Spider-Dan]

Let's apply this logic to the other teams in our division (besides the Jets, who just suck):

If we consider both MIA and CHI bad as per above, then BUF has beaten 4 bad teams (NYJ MIN MIA CHI) and a crippled DET.  Throw out the DET win (as we are throwing out the NE win for MIA) and we must conclude that BUF is also not a good team.
That means that NE has beaten 5 bad teams (BUF NYJ MIN CHI OAK) and one decent team (CIN).  So after we throw out their one respectable win, it seems that all NE has done is beat scrubs, too!

[fyo]

The Dolphins are now 10th overall according to footballoutsiders, whose advanced metrics are adjusted by opponent. Clearly, the team is playing fairly well right now.

[Sunstroke]

"Give me 10 random numbers, and I can prove to you that elephants fly."

[Rich]

Let's apply this logic to the other teams in our division (besides the Jets, who just suck):

If we consider both MIA and CHI bad as per above, then BUF has beaten 4 bad teams (NYJ MIN MIA CHI) and a crippled DET.  Throw out the DET win (as we are throwing out the NE win for MIA) and we must conclude that BUF is also not a good team.
That means that NE has beaten 5 bad teams (BUF NYJ MIN CHI OAK) and one decent team (CIN).  So after we throw out their one respectable win, it seems that all NE has done is beat scrubs, too!

I decided to put pen to paper on the logic you're following here and I came to the conclusion that every team in the NFL is a bad team. Life makes sense now.

[Pappy13]

Let's apply this logic to the other teams in our division (besides the Jets, who just suck):

If we consider both MIA and CHI bad as per above, then BUF has beaten 4 bad teams (NYJ MIN MIA CHI) and a crippled DET.  Throw out the DET win (as we are throwing out the NE win for MIA) and we must conclude that BUF is also not a good team.
That means that NE has beaten 5 bad teams (BUF NYJ MIN CHI OAK) and one decent team (CIN).  So after we throw out their one respectable win, it seems that all NE has done is beat scrubs, too!

This. If we would have beaten GB then GB would be classified as a bad team too because if you lose to Miami you must suck. (Except NE of course they are terrific no matter who they lose too, it's just an aberration). Would Chicago be considered a bad team if they went out and whipped Miami? No, they would be considered a good team that was beaten by really good teams. Soon as they lost to Miami though....WELCOME TO LOSERVILLE!!!!!

[MaineDolFan]

I will say this:  I thought Miami should have handled Jacksonville easily.  That was an ugly, ugly game.  However, you can't have it both ways.  Good teams find ways to win.

I live in New England.  When the Pats win games like that, against bad teams, people flat out say "it's all about the win."  Case in point, when the Raiders came in town.  Ugly win, and Oakland almost pulled off the upset.  Beat writers to fans alike up here seem to "get it."  It's not easy to win in this league, no matter who you play.

So, I'll take an ugly win over bad teams versus bad losses over bad teams any day.

[Phishfan]

I will say this:  I thought Miami should have handled Jacksonville easily.  That was an ugly, ugly game. 

Man, don't say the game was ugly (especially using it twice). You might have to spend two pages repeating yourself that you aren't calling it the end of the world.

[Brian Fein]

Case in point, when the Raiders came in town.  Ugly win, and Oakland almost pulled off the upset.  Beat writers to fans alike up here seem to "get it."  It's not easy to win in this league, no matter who you play.

Great, great example.  I'm curious to know if Pats fans and media reacted the same way after that game as they are reacting down here this week.  I swear, listening to radio hosts and callers, you'd think the Dolphins just lost their 8th straight game with these reactions.

But, in the broad scope, when they do lose, the same callers and hosts are calling for people to be lined up in front of a firing squad.  So, I guess its all relative...

[Spider-Dan]

MIA never trailed in the game.
They went up by two TDs less than 3 minutes after halftime.
The offense scored an insurance TD late in the third to go up by three scores, and the defense held it at a 3-score-game until what was basically garbage time.
That is not an "ugly win."

If the Dolphins hadn't scored on those INTs, then it definitely would have been an ugly game.  But that didn't happen.

Basically, if Delmas and Grimes get tackled inside the 5 on both of their INTs and the offense converts from point-blank, suddenly this game goes from "ugly win" to "dominating offensive performance."

I'll say it again: when you score on defense, you should not expect the same kind of offensive performance as if they had not.  The Jags have a good defense and Miami is not Denver.

[Pappy13]

Basically, if Delmas and Grimes get tackled inside the 5 on both of their INTs and the offense converts from point-blank, suddenly this game goes from "ugly win" to "dominating offensive performance."

By the way, this happened in the Oakland game where Grimes returned a INT to the Raiders 3 yard line. Miami scored 2 plays later on 2 runs from Miller. Also in that game Finnegan returned a fumble 50 yards for a TD. Without those 2 defensive plays Miami only scores 24 against Oakland and none in the 2nd half. Does that change your mind about that blowout win?

[EDGECRUSHER]

A big difference is New England has a track record of success while Miami has been kind of a joke for a few years now and terrible on the field for longer than that sans 2008. So, when the Pats almost get upset by a terrible team, people can laugh afterwards and not worry about the future. When Miami does it, it is "same old Dolphins".