Sports as a stock

[MikeO]

I'd buy soccer in a second.  To say you wouldn't buy it just because it's not big in the U.S. is idiotic, it's the worlds most played sport.  I'd buy NHL stock, its cheap now, and is finally starting to get some TV time, HD TV's are certainly growing the viewership.  I'd dump NBA stock, the talent level is plummeting in that sport.

It's been the worlds most played sports for decades and that hasn't changed its status in the USA. No professional woman's league in the USA and the mens league is minor league soccer as the best of the best players play overseas. And that ain't changing anytime soon. And neither one of those things will change ever!

[fyo]

Soccer in the US has any number of problems. There are many and easy to point to (much harder to fix), but let's try to be objective and look at how the sport is doing. (Oh, and the lack of a women's league is a non-issue -- men's soccer is the most popular sport in the world, while basically no one cares about women's soccer.)

Attendance figures at MLS games have trended up since 2009, with a total increase of about 25% over those 6 years. Total attendance is through the roof mainly due to expansion, up almost 200% since the early 2000s. Total number of clubs is now at 21 with at least one more team on the way, pretty much double the number in the early 2000s.

Those are all extremely strong indicators and that they haven't suffered significantly during the economic downturn is impressive.

However, national interest in the form of huge TV ratings hasn't followed, although hard data is surprisingly hard to find. There were some statements earlier this year that indicated 2015 might be different. Ratings on ESPN were up 28% over 2014, although skewed by a couple of huge games. Ratings on Fox Sports were up 54% over the 2014 ratings on NBCSN, which previously had those slots. And 2014 wasn't a bad year (NBCSN's highest in the 3 years it had the rights). Univision, which broadcasts Friday night games, has also seen good numbers in 2015.

These increases in ratings should be considered in the context of the overall product delivered this year, which has taken a real beating in the press and from fans. The games covered early in the season (which is what the numbers above refer to) heavily featured the new expansion teams, with very little exposure for the top 4 teams. The number of goals per televised game was down and the commentating on Univision in particular has received an enormous amount of criticism.

Bottom line is that soccer is positioned quite well right now, but that large percentage increases are easy to obtain when the number of viewers is measured in the hundreds of thousands. The league has taken a number of solid steps to improve the overall package (expanding to important markets, locking down time slots, etc), but there is still a lot of work to be done tightening up the product and ensuring a consistent broadcast quality.

[Spider-Dan]

Because it is and the NFL is doing everything in its power to make sure it happens with all of their actions. The NFL Has the midas touch and they are expanding overseas. They will put a Super Bowl in London and they will put at least 1 team in Europe possibly more.

The NFL had an entire LEAGUE in Europe less than a decade ago.  They contracted it because it was bleeding money.

[masterfins]

It's been the worlds most played sports for decades and that hasn't changed its status in the USA. No professional woman's league in the USA and the mens league is minor league soccer as the best of the best players play overseas. And that ain't changing anytime soon. And neither one of those things will change ever!

You really should add a tag line to all of your posts that says "The Gospel according to MikeO".

It doesn't matter whether it ever increases in U.S. popularity, which it has been doing and I believe it will continue to do, what matters is it's a world wide money maker.  To follow your logic it would be like someone in Paris (not Paris, Texas) saying the NFL is a terrible investment because it will never be big in France.

[MikeO]

The NFL had an entire LEAGUE in Europe less than a decade ago.  They contracted it because it was bleeding money.

It was minor league football. Garbage players. Can't compare the two

[MikeO]

You really should add a tag line to all of your posts that says "The Gospel according to MikeO".

I'm giving my opinion. You are giving yours. Is yours the gospel? When did I ever say mine was? I am voicing my opinion, that's what we all do around here. Of course since I believe my opinion is right I will back mine up and attack an opinion that disagrees with mine. That's not saying mine is gospel, that's just defending my stance. What millions of people do every day on all message boards. Don't be a Sensitive Susie!

It doesn't matter whether it ever increases in U.S. popularity, which it has been doing and I believe it will continue to do, what matters is it's a world wide money maker.  To follow your logic it would be like someone in Paris (not Paris, Texas) saying the NFL is a terrible investment because it will never be big in France.

Sure it matters, the United States is a giant in the world of sports. What is big in the USA is big worldwide. The NBA and NFL are big here so other countries want the NBA and NFL. There isn't a sport that is big elsewhere that dominates the American sports landscape. Soccer is the pimple on the ass of the American sports culture and its impossible for the sport to be a "good buy" going forward when this country don't give two craps about it. The United States doesn't care about soccer, it has been proven. Every 4 years or so people get into it for a couple weeks (like they do with figure skating at the Olympics), other than that nobody cares. Who is watching an MLS game over an NFL, NBA, or MLB game? Only the ever so small minority die-hard lunatic fringe soccer fan. The MASSES are watching everything else.  The sport will never increases in popularity in this country to where its a Top 6 sport in this country therefore its a bad buy. It's a niche sport with no audience inside the United States.  Since the sport is already very very popular in Europe and South America, how much growth is there? Probably none. While the NFL is huge here and #1 in America, it is now expanding to Europe at a fast rate and will soon be a power and force across the pond!

[Spider-Dan]

It was minor league football. Garbage players. Can't compare the two

America loves football.  America also loves college football, which is basically the "minor league" for the NFL.  Canadians also have a football "minor league" that has been successful for decades.  You're basically saying that Europeans love the NFL but don't really care about the sport itself, which makes no sense.  (As a point of contrast, other countries can't get enough of "minor league" basketball, and pay our washed up NBA players millions of dollars to play over there.)

The reason why "minor league" football was unsuccessful in Europe is because Europe does not like gridiron football.  If the English Premier League held two games a year in America, I'm sure those games would be very well attended, but that wouldn't mean that soccer is about to explode here, either.

[fyo]

NFL Europe was a joke every which way. It was basically a bunch of show games, just with bad teams. Sports in Europe (and Asia and South America) are different than in the US. The whole tradition of a single entity owning the LEAGUE with teams just being franchises doesn't exist anywhere else as far as I know. That sort of "top down" approach has proven very hard to export to countries that are used to open, free market sports where anyone can start a team (or invest in one) and fans have a completely different attachment to they club the root for.

Football is growing in Europe, from the ground up. More and more kids are playing and the sport is rapidly gaining in popularity. Note that this is LOCAL development in a style similar to how soccer is organized in Europe. Without going through the yearly reports of the European Federation of American Football, a quick google search showed that the number of players in Germany increase 10% year-over-year from 2012 to 2013. This is expected to increase another 50% no later than 2020. That's a huge (and long term unsustainable) growth in a dominant European country.

[MikeO]

The reason why "minor league" football was unsuccessful in Europe is because Europe does not like gridiron football.  If the English Premier League held two games a year in America, I'm sure those games would be very well attended, but that wouldn't mean that soccer is about to explode here, either.

Europe/London is gonna sell out 3 NFL games this year. In the coming year that is gonna jump to 5 or 6 games the NFL will play over there each year and from the numbers odds are those will sell out easily as well. So putting a team over there within the next 5-10 years that is a  full time "home team" your saying couldn't sell out 8 games? It will sell out 8 games  or sell enough tickets for those 8 games to make it a financial success easily!! You are way off on this one Spider. It's a process. The sport is growing over there at a rapid pace the NFL isn't rushing into this, they are handling it perfectly.

NFL Europe was a joke, bring the real deal over there and those fans are eating it up. Give those fans their own team and it will be a huge boom!

[Spider-Dan]

So putting a team over there within the next 5-10 years that is a  full time "home team" your saying couldn't sell out 8 games? It will sell out 8 games  or sell enough tickets for those 8 games to make it a financial success easily!!

MLS sells out far more than 8 games in America.  Does that mean that soccer is poised to take over America?

8 games tells you nothing about where gridiron football, as a sport, is headed in Europe.  If Europe can't sustain a football league (and they clearly cannot), they don't really like football.

You keep insisting that NFL Europe was a low-quality product and that this is the reason football failed in Europe.  But Europe will never have an NFL-quality gridiron league, just as America will never have an EPL-quality soccer league.  Having 8 games a year in London is not remotely the same thing as a sport taking hold in a continent.  And once again: minor league basketball does perfectly well in Europe.

By the metrics of success you are using for gridiron football in Europe, soccer has already taken over in America.

[MikeO]

MLS sells out far more than 8 games in America.  Does that mean that soccer is poised to take over America?

8 games tells you nothing about where gridiron football, as a sport, is headed in Europe.  If Europe can't sustain a football league (and they clearly cannot), they don't really like football.

You keep insisting that NFL Europe was a low-quality product and that this is the reason football failed in Europe.  But Europe will never have an NFL-quality gridiron league, just as America will never have an EPL-quality soccer league.  Having 8 games a year in London is not remotely the same thing as a sport taking hold in a continent.  And once again: minor league basketball does perfectly well in Europe.

By the metrics of success you are using for gridiron football in Europe, soccer has already taken over in America.

Oh my god, really Spider. Nobody said the NFL was taking over Europe. I just said they can expand with 1 or 2 teams there and be successful. Hence in turn, making the NFL product overall more popular and bring in more revenue. Making it it a good buy in "stock terms" as a whole the NFL would increase and become bigger.

MLS sucks in America and isn't in Europe. Soccer is dead in America, has no ratings on TV, a small fan base, and makes very little money as a company. If you can't see the difference between the two then I don't know what to say.

NFL=Getting bigger, making tons more money, potential growth is through the sky
Soccer=Has nothing going on in America and is maxed out its popularity in Europe/South America, making it a bad buy and can only go down.

[Spider-Dan]

Again, the NFL just shuttered their (pathetic) European league less than 10 years ago and (pathetic) American soccer draws millions in attendance every year, yet to you this somehow means that football is growing in Europe but soccer is dead in America.

Nobody said the NFL was taking over Europe. I just said they can expand with 1 or 2 teams there and be successful.

Ahem....

While the NFL is huge here and #1 in America, it is now expanding to Europe at a fast rate and will soon be a power and force across the pond!

So there is that.

By any metric you want to use, if NFL is "doing great" in Europe then soccer is already dominant in the States.  If Europe cannot successfully support a minor league for gridiron football, then Europe does not like football.  And as evidence (for the fourth time), I cite BASKETBALL, which has successful minor leagues ALL OVER THE WORLD.

Imagine that the following 4 people take a trip together:

1) Joe Montana
2) Michael Jordan
3) Aaron Rodgers
4) LeBron James

Outside of North America, there is no country on the planet in which the football players would be more recognized or popular than the basketball players.

[MikeO]

The NFL can be very popular, pack arenas and be financially successful in Europe (not saying its the #1 sport over there, it never will be!! I'm just saying it would be a financial boom and very popular over there increasing the NFL's popularity globally overall and making them more money overall as a league. It would be a dominate force over there, wouldn't make them #1 but it would be front page news there in that part of the world when the NFL expands there) The NFL goes to Europe and they pack over 80,000 in an stadium. MLS in the USA are lucky to get 19,000 for games, and that's on a good day. You can't see the difference? You can't see how one is a success the other is an utter failure.

Soccer is nothing in this country. Since the 70's all the soccer sicko fans keep saying how Soccer is going to explode in America, how its on the verge of this boom and such. It never happens! It's so popular they say...yet nothing ever comes of it. In 1999 when the ladies won the world cup....here it is, this is gonna kick-start the boom that's all we heard, nope. In 2015...same verbiage after the world cup, nothing will come of it.

The NFL is going to be holding Super Bowls in Europe, will be putting a team or two FULL TIME there soon. Those are things that are in the works. When a major soccer league comes to America and is having games on in Primetime on a NETWORK (not cable, a network) and is drawing decent ratings and has more than 20,000 people in a stadium on a consistent basis...wake me up.

We are going in circles at this point. This has become boring. Believe what you want Spider.

[Spider-Dan]

You don't think an English Premier League game could fill a large stadium in America?  We got 90,000+ attendance for World Cup games here back in 1994.

My point is that you are using wildly different standards for football and soccer.  A European soccer fan would look at gridiron football there and say EXACTLY the same things you would say about soccer here if MLS had recently went under.

[MikeO]

You don't think an English Premier League game could fill a large stadium in America? 

So they can expand, put a team here full time and let's find out. They won't because they know in the United States there isn't the fan base to support a soccer team full time on that level and draw that kind of fan for however many home games they play. Could they do it one time, yes. Can they do it for week after week month after month...nope!

World Cup is a BAD comparison. That is like the Olympics because fans from all over the globe travel to it as an "event" that takes place every 4 years.  Can't count that. Need a league with regular teams to put 90,000 fans in a stadium for a regular season game or their championship game for it to be the equivalent