This weeks knee jerk reaction

[Pappy13]

Seeing as how last week after the game there were posts indicating the Dolphins might not win another game all year, I'm curious what everyone's thoughts are now. I'll get the party started and say that 2-4 is worse then what I had hoped for, but not by much. I figured the best that Miami could come out of these first 6 games was 3-3 and the Dolphins had a shot at 3-3, so in my opinion Miami is about where I expected them to be at this stage. Looking at the schedule I see a lot of winnable games in the future, but maybe just as important the offensive line is finally healthy and came together today and if they can stay healthy for 1 week then they get a bye week and some more time to gel. With 10 games left I'm hopeful the Dolphins can win half of them. 7-9 would be a successful first year for Gase especially if we continue to see progress. I'm not buying the story that the defense is just playing too many snaps, much of that problems is due to the fact they can't get off the field, but I do think they might be a little better than what they have shown the first 6 weeks. The biggest problem I see with the whole team is really inconsistent play and I'm hopeful that's mostly because there's still a lot of moving pieces and everyone is just feeling their way. The offense and defense are still trying to find themselves while at the same time juggling the lineup so I guess it's not surprising that the performance has been all over the place. If they stay healthy a little bit and maybe find a little bit of a rhythm they might be able to find themselves a bit and play with a little more consistency. That's what we need to see this first year under Gase, a little consistency and growth. I've got a feeling we will see a lot of turnover the first offseason and more building through the draft which will be another step in the right direction. I know it's hard to see for many of you but things don't happen as quickly as you'd like. Give Gase some time, I think we have a good young coach.

[DaLittle B]

I've got a feeling we will see a lot of turnover the first offseason and more building through the draft which will be another step in the right direction.

I'm hoping for some turnover.IMO we'd need a major front office shake up,or big change by Tannenbuam in his philosophy.He seems more apt to trade picks for player,and spend in free agency.I just have a hard time seeing us suddenly getting smarter drafting with our current front office.

[Dolfanalyst]

These players are learning who the boss is.  After last week Turner, Thomas, and Douglas were cut.  This week Mario Williams was largely benched.  The roster is built for heavy turnover after the season, by virtue of many of the player contracts.

It's an evaluative season.  Gase is learning what he has in the players, and the players are either signing on or signing their ticket out of town.

[fyo]

The roster is built for heavy turnover after the season, by virtue of many of the player contracts.

Which specific aspect of the player contracts are you referring to? Cap savings if cutting them?

I'm asking mainly because it seems to me that there are pretty much no significant players who become free agents and the cap situation next year ($38 million under, with the current carry-over) is very good.

The most significant free agents are our tight ends, Sims and Cameron, plus Kenny Stills (WR), Andre Branch (DE), Jelani Jenkins (LB)... and John Denney, a 100-year-old long snapper (182 straight games and counting). There are a few interesting restricted and exclusive rights free agents as well, but those should be fairly cheap to lock up: Damien Williams (RB) and Kiko Alonso (LB), primarily.

The Dolphins have 35 players under contract next year with $38 million in space. The draft will take about $8 million total (dependent on draft position, of course). That leaves $30 million in cap space to sign the eight restricted and real free agents listed above, which brings us to the 53 players who will count towards the roster during the season (51 before that). There are some caveats, of course, but overall the Dolphins cap situation looks very good going forward.

That's not to say I don't think you are correct in your prediction of a heavy turnover, or at least heavier than the cap situation dictates. Tannenbaum and Gase are both new in their spots, so one would expect them to mold the roster quite a bit and there are certainly players that would seem to be underperforming their contracts and result in little to no dead money, like Dion Jordan ($3.2 million cap hit, all saved if cut), Earl Mitchell ($4.5 million cap hit, $4 million saved if cut), and Mario Williams ($10.5 million cap hit, $8.5 million saved).

[Dolfanalyst]

Which specific aspect of the player contracts are you referring to? Cap savings if cutting them?

I'm asking mainly because it seems to me that there are pretty much no significant players who become free agents and the cap situation next year ($38 million under, with the current carry-over) is very good.

The most significant free agents are our tight ends, Sims and Cameron, plus Kenny Stills (WR), Andre Branch (DE), Jelani Jenkins (LB)... and John Denney, a 100-year-old long snapper (182 straight games and counting). There are a few interesting restricted and exclusive rights free agents as well, but those should be fairly cheap to lock up: Damien Williams (RB) and Kiko Alonso (LB), primarily.

The Dolphins have 35 players under contract next year with $38 million in space. The draft will take about $8 million total (dependent on draft position, of course). That leaves $30 million in cap space to sign the eight restricted and real free agents listed above, which brings us to the 53 players who will count towards the roster during the season (51 before that). There are some caveats, of course, but overall the Dolphins cap situation looks very good going forward.

That's not to say I don't think you are correct in your prediction of a heavy turnover, or at least heavier than the cap situation dictates. Tannenbaum and Gase are both new in their spots, so one would expect them to mold the roster quite a bit and there are certainly players that would seem to be underperforming their contracts and result in little to no dead money, like Dion Jordan ($3.2 million cap hit, all saved if cut), Earl Mitchell ($4.5 million cap hit, $4 million saved if cut), and Mario Williams ($10.5 million cap hit, $8.5 million saved).

I was going by this here:

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article108249662.html

[fyo]

Salguero is telling a story, picking and shaping things to fit what certainly appears to be a predetermined narrative. He makes claims, but without comparisons we have to rely on his word that the Dolphins roster is somehow significantly different than that of other teams.

He says that 7 of 10 top cap hits this year could be gone next year. Well, technically, all 10 could be gone. Realistically, though, look at that list.

Ndamukong Suh -> staying
Ryan Tannehill -> probably staying
Branden Albert -> staying
Mike Pouncey -> staying
Cameron Wake -> staying
Byron Maxwell -> probably staying
Reshad Jones -> staying
Jordan Cameron -> unknown
Mario Williams -> unknown
Andre Branch -> unknown

Notably, these guys are all under contract. Most teams have at least one or two free agents on their top-10 list (Patriots 2, Jets and Bills 1 each -- including a starting quarterback, who looks like he could be gone).

Baring injuries, it's not going to be 7 guys, who are gone. It's going to be maybe 3, which at a glance doesn't appear dissimilar to other teams.

[Baba Booey]

^^^^Branden Albert, Bryon Maxwell, Mario Williams, and Cam Wake probably won't be back after this year. Jordan Cameron will retire or be let go he is shot as a player and has concussion issues

Maxwell sucks. With Tunsil it makes zero sense to keep Albert and pay him that kind of money, and Mario and Cam are old and can't play the run at all anymore and is the main reason why teams run at will vs our defense. Someone like Branch has a chance to stick around as he is playing decent and can play the run from DE

[Pappy13]

Based upon currently play I'd say it's more like this:

Jordan Cameron -> Gone.
Mario Williams -> Gone.
Arian Foster -> Gone.
Jermon Bushrod -> Gone.
Koa Misi -> Gone.
Earl Mitchell -> Gone.
Jason Jones -> Gone.

Now granted there's considerable churn every year with every team, but Gase is going to be given more freedom to make changes to the roster and shape it the way he wants then most coaches are given because he's the new golden child and is going to be given every chance to fix things.

[fyo]

Based upon currently play I'd say it's more like this

Most of those guys aren't top 10 cap hits, which was the list.

Branden Albert, Bryon Maxwell, Mario Williams, and Cam Wake probably won't be back after this year. Jordan Cameron will retire or be let go he is shot as a player and has concussion issues

Sure, injuries could force Jordan Cameron to go. I wouldn't be surprised at all.

Byron Maxwell just shut down Antonio Brown, so apparently he doesn't completely suck.

Sure, the Dolphins would save a lot of money by cutting Albert, but you need to replace him with someone... and considering he's still one of the top guys on the line, I think it would be a horrible decision to cut him. The kind of quality he brings to the table cannot be purchased, probably at all, but certainly not at a price that is significantly below the $7 million you'd save by cutting him.

Regarding Cameron Wake, he's grading out exceptionally well this year. He's been taken off his somewhat confusing pitch count (at least for the time being) and, barring a sudden decline in performance or injury, he should be back next year. That's the last year of his deal and cutting him would "only" save $4 million. Additionally, if you're getting rid of his replacement (Mario Williams), there's going to be a gaping hole. Or are you planning to fill that hole with Dion Jordan?

[Baba Booey]

Most of those guys aren't top 10 cap hits, which was the list.

Sure, injuries could force Jordan Cameron to go. I wouldn't be surprised at all.

Byron Maxwell just shut down Antonio Brown, so apparently he doesn't completely suck.

Sure, the Dolphins would save a lot of money by cutting Albert, but you need to replace him with someone... and considering he's still one of the top guys on the line, I think it would be a horrible decision to cut him. The kind of quality he brings to the table cannot be purchased, probably at all, but certainly not at a price that is significantly below the $7 million you'd save by cutting him.

Regarding Cameron Wake, he's grading out exceptionally well this year. He's been taken off his somewhat confusing pitch count (at least for the time being) and, barring a sudden decline in performance or injury, he should be back next year. That's the last year of his deal and cutting him would "only" save $4 million. Additionally, if you're getting rid of his replacement (Mario Williams), there's going to be a gaping hole. Or are you planning to fill that hole with Dion Jordan?

There is talk of Wake to the Cowboys could go down before the trade deadline. He might not be here in a week let alone a year. Getting rid of Wake and Mario is easy to fill. They have Branch and they could re-sign Jason Jones. Then of course there are things called FA and the draft.

I wouldn't say Maxwell shut down Brown. It was made clear after the game by the coaches that the Fins defense disguised it's coverage very good this week. Maxwell had help. Plus 1 good game doesn't excuse Maxwell's other dog games. So to clarify my point Maxwell sucks 95% of the time.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I'm still hoping we go winless after next week (Fuck Buffalo and Rex Ryan). We're not going anywhere, 8-8 does us no good.

I'm happy with the roster cuts and benchings, but we are still an untalented team that will need a good 2-3 years of great drafts and free agency to get back to 10-11 wins. So, let 'em lose now, hope for a few bright spots from rookies and continue to clean house where need be.

[fyo]

The way the Dolphins covered Brown looked a lot like how the Patriots do things.... Use the corner in a lot of trail technique with safety help over the top. Take away the opposing team's top target and force them to beat you with other players. First time I've seen the team use that tactic in years.

[Phishfan]

So, let 'em lose now, hope for a few bright spots from rookies and continue to clean house where need be.

You do not have to lose in order to get bright spots from your rookies. I hate that people think you do. Why is Cleveland always losing and bad? It is more important to make good decisions going forward than it is to lose or hope for losing during one season.

[Dolfanalyst]

The way the Dolphins covered Brown looked a lot like how the Patriots do things.... Use the corner in a lot of trail technique with safety help over the top. Take away the opposing team's top target and force them to beat you with other players. First time I've seen the team use that tactic in years.

And that's what they did to Jarvis Landry in the game earlier this year, and the Dolphins' offense came to a complete standstill, because there aren't any other players the Dolphins can beat you with (reliably).