Shame of the Year - 2016 season

[raptorsfan29]

At least for the first time in awhile this could happen after a playoff game.

Take your pick.

[Dolfanalyst]

The Dolphins' front office, for building around Tannehill offensively for years, without any evidence that it would pay sufficient dividends, while letting the defense dwindle to the embarrassment we saw out there today.

[Tenshot13]

Mario Williams

[fyo]

The Dolphins' front office, for building around Tannehill offensively for years, without any evidence that it would pay sufficient dividends, while letting the defense dwindle to the embarrassment we saw out there today.

Big surprise coming from you. Of course, Tannehill hasn't limited the Dolphins' ability to spend on defense in ANY way (yet). And I would argue he's also a good quarterback with huge upside. He hasn't had much stability in the system around him (4 OCs in 5 years), so it'll be interesting to see what 2017 brings in terms of improvement. The big problem at quarterback has been an absolutely horrendous offensive line, but then we've had this discussion on-and-off for most of the season.

[Dolfanalyst]

Big surprise coming from you. Of course, Tannehill hasn't limited the Dolphins' ability to spend on defense in ANY way (yet). And I would argue he's also a good quarterback with huge upside. He hasn't had much stability in the system around him (4 OCs in 5 years), so it'll be interesting to see what 2017 brings in terms of improvement. The big problem at quarterback has been an absolutely horrendous offensive line, but then we've had this discussion on-and-off for most of the season.

I'm not talking about spending here.  I'm talking about drafting.

Since 2014, when it should've become evident to the front office that Tannehill was no more than an Alex Smith type, the team has spent 75% of its draft picks in the first three rounds on offense.

I could be wrong of course, but the thinking by the front office seems to have been that Tannehill was just a supporting offensive cast away from being a top-tier talent.

In my opinion the thinking should've been that he'd proven himself to be no better than average, and so the effort should've been to bolster the defense through the draft, maintain control of the scoreboard by defending other teams better, and keep Tannehill out of must-pass situations.

This is the formula the Chiefs have used with Alex Smith, and the formula any team must use with an average-level QB, to have the best probability of achieving a passer rating differential associated with winning in the NFL.

What the Dolphins appear to have been thinking, on the other hand, is that Ryan Tannehill was only X away from becoming top tier, and so the defense has been neglected in the past three drafts, culminating in what we saw out there today.

[fyo]

I'm not talking about spending here.  I'm talking about drafting.

Looking at rounds 1 and 2:

2016: Tunsil, Howard (2xD1O+1D)
2015: Parker, Philips (1O+1D)
2014: James, Landry (2xO)
2013: Jordan, Taylor (2xD)

So the year after drafting Tannehill, the Dolphins went with DEFENSE for their top two picks. Whoops, turned out the O-line sucked and the receiver situation was bad. Tried addressing both (hit big with Landry, IMHO). The year after that they split the picks and last year both top picks again went to the DEFENSE.

In other words, WHAT THE F*CK ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?!

[Dolfanalyst]

Looking at rounds 1 and 2:

2016: Tunsil, Howard (2xD)
2015: Parker, Philips (1O+1D)
2014: James, Landry (2xO)
2013: Jordan, Taylor (2xD)

So the year after drafting Tannehill, the Dolphins went with DEFENSE for their top two picks. Whoops, turned out the O-line sucked and the receiver situation was bad. Tried addressing both (hit big with Landry, IMHO). The year after that they split the picks and last year both top picks again went to the DEFENSE.

In other words, WHAT THE F*CK ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?!

I'm not surprised the bolded portion above is your question, when you've truncated my post to only the portion you quoted, and then created your own point from a different data set, covering a different time period.

[Spider-Dan]

Looking at rounds 1 and 2:

2016: Tunsil, Howard (2xD)

Tunsil doesn't play defense.

[Baba Booey]

In other words, WHAT THE F*CK ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?!

Can't take him seriously. He's sick in the head. Has some sick anti-Tannehill agenda he pushes and will turn every thread into. He ain't all right and its now obvious to everyone

[fyo]

I'm not surprised the bolded portion above is your question, when you've truncated my post to only the portion you quoted, and then created your own point from a different data set, covering a different time period.

You come off as completely revisionist here and when called on it, you try to bluff your way out or just plain deny.

I wasn't explicitly comparing your draft picks to mine, I was looking through the list I had on hand, which listed the top two rounds, since talent is generally considered to drop off very sharply (as also indicated by the "Draft Trade Chart").

If you include round 3, sure you get more picks on the offensive side, but if you go with round 4 as well it flips again. So what? That's not where you find talent to build around, which is what you were talking about.

You decided to pick the EXACT years (2014+) and the EXACT rounds (1-3) that supported your assertion. That's called CHERRY PICKING. And that's pretty much what you do around here.

[fyo]

Tunsil doesn't play defense.

You are right, sorry, fixed it.

[Spider-Dan]

In my opinion the thinking should've been that he'd proven himself to be no better than average, and so the effort should've been to bolster the defense through the draft, maintain control of the scoreboard by defending other teams better, and keep Tannehill out of must-pass situations.

This is the formula the Chiefs have used with Alex Smith, and the formula any team must use with an average-level QB, to have the best probability of achieving a passer rating differential associated with winning in the NFL.

The Andy Reid/Alex Smith Chiefs have exactly one more playoff win than the Dolphins.  Furthermore, in the same time period they also have exactly 1 more playoff win than the Bengals, who have 1 more division title than KC.

The Chiefs are not a team worth emulating.  Their strategy, much like CIN's, is just good enough to get you an early playoff exit.

[Dolfanalyst]

You come off as completely revisionist here and when called on it, you try to bluff your way out or just plain deny.

I wasn't explicitly comparing your draft picks to mine, I was looking through the list I had on hand, which listed the top two rounds, since talent is generally considered to drop off very sharply (as also indicated by the "Draft Trade Chart").

If you include round 3, sure you get more picks on the offensive side, but if you go with round 4 as well it flips again. So what? That's not where you find talent to build around, which is what you were talking about.

You decided to pick the EXACT years (2014+) and the EXACT rounds (1-3) that supported your assertion. That's called CHERRY PICKING. And that's pretty much what you do around here.

2014 was when Joe Philbin wanted Derek Carr and was overruled, hence the time period I specified above.  The head coach of the team at the time -- who certainly knew Ryan Tannehill better than any of us -- had seen enough of Tannehill and wanted to move on.

The team brass responded not by drafting Derek Carr -- which was an obvious mistake -- but by allocating 75% of its draft picks in the first three rounds to the offensive support of Tannehill, at the expense of the defense.

And again, that culminated in the mess we saw out there today.

You have an average-level QB on this team, whom the team has done any- and everything to coax maximum potential from resource-wise, rather than realizing that an average-level QB would need a stellar defense for the team to be highly competitive.

They bet on Ryan Tannehill and lost, and here's where we are, traveling to Pittsburgh in one-degree wind chill, while the Chiefs are hosting a playoff game after a bye week with Alex Smith, having allocated over 70% of their draft picks in the first three rounds to their defense during the same time period.

[Spider-Dan]

Pretty interesting that OAK betting on Derek Carr - who sat on the bench with an injury as his team lost in the playoffs to a team he had already beaten - is treated as an unqualified success, while MIA betting on Ryan Tannehill - who sat on the bench with an injury as his team lost in the playoffs to a team he had already beaten - is considered a total failure.

[Spider-Dan]

One more thing:

2014 was when Joe Philbin wanted Derek Carr and was overruled, hence the time period I specified above.  The head coach of the team at the time -- who certainly knew Ryan Tannehill better than any of us -- had seen enough of Tannehill and wanted to move on.

For the sake of argument, let us take Philbin's highly self-serving hindsight proclamations as fact.

In order for this claim to have any sort of meaning, one must assert that after two seasons, a QB's potential is fully (and accurately!) determinable.  Is this the position you are taking?