New e-book busts four biggest myths about Dolphins’ Tannehill

[Tenshot13]

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article144385454.html

I found this to be an interesting read, as a few trolls on here like to bash our QB.  Enlightening.

Adam Gase has been Ryan Tannehill’s most dogged defender since Day 1.

The best example: Back on Sept. 21, 2016, when his Dolphins’ offense looked lost after an 0-2 start.

Does Tannehill need to up his game for the Dolphins to make anything of this season?, a reporter asked Gase then.

Gase’s answer: “He has really been, probably, one of our most consistent guys that we have. I don’t know how much more he can really step up considering that he’s doing everything right now that we need him to do. It’s just that we need every guy to pull their weight.”

Turns out, this wasn’t just coach-speak, an attempt to buoy the confidence of his embattled quarterback.

Gase was telling the truth.

That’s the conclusion reached by game film analyst Cian Fahey in his new e-book Pre-Snap Reads: Quarterback Catalogue 2017, set for release on April 30. Fahey, who watches American football from afar in his native Ireland, lays waste to a good many tropes about quarterback play in general — and Tannehill’s play in particular — in his latest release.

Fahey’s approach begins with the premise that the metrics we use to evaluate quarterbacks — wins and losses, championships, passer rating, touchdowns, interceptions, completion percentage — are all inherently flawed. While the quarterback is indeed the most important person on the field, he still plays a relatively small part in the efficiency of his offense, and the fortunes of his team.

All a quarterback can control is how well he executes his part of a play. And after countless hours of film study, Fahey, a 26-year-old who has covered the NFL for a better part of a decade, has determined Tannehill does his job better than most — and far better than most believe.

“Tannehill is the quintessential example of a quarterback who needs this type of analysis to be truly appreciated,” Fahey writes. “Adam Gase vehemently defended his quarterback during the season, knowing that he knew how the plays were supposed to look and what was happening on the field didn't look that way. Gase was referring to the offense around Tannehill. Whether it was receivers running the wrong routes, blockers missing assignments or receivers punching accurate passes to defenders, the Dolphins thrived at creating chaos for their own quarterback.”

Using subjective charting, Fahey attempts to flatten quarterback statistics and rankings, controlling for opponents, scheme, surrounding talent, randomness and luck.

He didn’t set out to write a book that vindicated Tannehill and his defenders. The data simply took him there.

Among the myths surrounding Tannehill he busted:

1. Tannehill is an average quarterback (62.7 career completion percentage, 86.5 passer rating and 37-40 record).

Reality: Tannehill was one of the league’s four most accurate passers in 2016, and of his 12 interceptions, half were the fault of his teammates — the highest rate in the league.

He had threw ninth-fewest interceptable passes (balls that should have been picked, whether the were or weren’t) among the 33 quarterbacks who played enough to be considered. And 79.6 percent of his 353 qualifying passes were on the money, trailing just Sam Bradford, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.

2. OK, but he can’t throw the deep ball, right?

Reality: He was the league’s most accurate passer in passes thrown 16-20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage (an absurd 78.3 percent) and ranked third in passes thrown 21 yards or farther (55.6 percent). On passes thrown more than five yards, Tannehill was eighth in all of football, with a 67.1 accurate percentage.

3. Sure, but that’s because the Dolphins receivers bailed him out.

Reality: Tannehill had 30 “lost receptions” (which includes drops, bad footwork, a misread flight of the ball or lost control against contact) for 364 lost yards in 2016. He averaged a lost reception every 13 attempts, the 11th-highest rate in football.

Tannehill's receivers created just nine receptions for him in 2016 (eighth-fewest in football). His receivers created a reception once every 43.22 of Tannehill's qualifying attempts, which ranked 21st last year.

Tannehill's receivers did help him in one important way, however: 49.5 percent of his 2,995 passing yards came after the catch, the league’s ninth-highest rate.

4. Fine, but what about those sacks? He’s taken 213 in his career, a reflection of terrible pocket awareness.

Reality: Tannehill was sacked 27 times in 2016, but just one of those 27 could have realistically been avoided, leading the league. Of those 26 sacks, 18 were the result of a blocker getting beaten, five were a result of blown coverage and three were because of excellent downfield coverage.

Not surprising, Fahey’s scouting report for Tannehill’s 2016 was positive.

“Timing and placement is easier for him when he pushes the ball to the intermediate and deep routes,” he writes. “One of the best arms in the NFL. ... Throws well from the pocket but becomes more confident and aggressive outside of the pocket. ... Exceptional deep passer. ... Pressure doesn't impact his mechanics.”

He concludes: ”As it turns out, Gase isn't a quarterback whisperer, he's just a good head coach. Gase didn't coach up Tannehill or create play designs that made him more productive than his performances warranted. Instead, he settled a supporting case that had previously acted as an anchor around the neck of its signal caller.”

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article144385454.html#storylink=cpy

[Baba Booey]

Speaking of Tannehill, came across this today. I think "you know who" is now calling radio shows and getting laughed at. This is what that clown said in EVERY post before he left this site. Trade Tannehill and sign Cutler..LOL

https://twitter.com/iamandrewwass/status/854362042165329920

[Rich]

Interesting read.

[Tenshot13]

He also had the 3rd most accurate deep ball last year.

http://slicemiami.com/2017/05/03/ryan-tannehill-accuracy-tom-brady/

Ryan Tannehill has an elite deep ball
Josh BaumgardMay 3, 2017
Ryan Tannehill has a better deep ball than the son of the football gods himself, Tom Brady.

At least in 2016 he did.

Yes, Ryan Timothy Tannehill III was significantly more accurate chucking the ball down the field last season, and 19 other quarterbacks were as well. While Brady is a butcher in the short-to-intermediate passing game (think under 20 yards), he connected on just 38.7 percent (ranking 20th) of passes traveling 21 yards or more.

Tannehill’s 55.6 percent ranked third, trailing only Sam Bradford (1st) and Andrew Luck (2) while looking down on the likes of big names like Drew Brees (4th), Matt Ryan (5th), and even Aaron Rodgers (7th).

The mind-boggling stat was one of many uncovered in the 2017 Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue, an expertly crafted guide by Cian Fahey taking you through the most detailed and advanced quarterback analysis (nearly 200 pages) I’ve ever encountered.

How about that for an offseason nugget, one you should probably keep in your back pocket for the next time you encounter the most obnoxious fan base in sports. Where Brady dominates is on the intermediate routes, leading the league by a wide margin on balls traveling 11 to 20 yards (75%).

It’s important to note Tannehill didn’t throw deep that frequently, attempting those deep balls just 10 percent of the time, which ranks 21st, but it’s still impressive, especially considering his perceived deep ball issues from earlier in his career and the fact his offensive line has always been below average.

If we widen the scope on 2016, Tannehill was actually not only one of the most accurate passers in football but also one of the unluckiest.

He ranked fourth overall in accuracy percentage at 80 percent (Brady was 10th) and was not to blame on a league-high 50 percent of his 12 interceptions. Here’s how Tannehill’s accuracy stacks up from various levels:

To 0 YDS: 95% (3rd)

1-10 YDS: 82% (11th)

11-20 YDS: 68% (7th)

21+ YDS: 56% (3rd)

The entire premise of this premium guide was to remove all the incomparable variables when studying quarterback play. Some passers have more time to throw. Others have wideouts who can’t consistently get open. Some face much tougher defenses throughout their 16-game season sample. This is why raw quarterback metrics are deceiving.

The numbers Fahey uncovers from studying what feels like years of tape remove all the noise so we can better compare the game’s most critical position across an even playing field.

For instance, Tannehill’s protection last year continued to be awful. Of his 27 sacks, only one was unavoidable — ONE. To add context, his avoidable sack percentage of 3.7 percent was nearly one/fifth of Brady’s (17.4%), who ranks 16th, and about TEN times less than David Carr’s (40%), who ranks 32nd.

So next time you hear about Tannehill’s lacking pocket presence, throw that number at that ignorant hot-take spewer because it’s pure fiction.

“His pocket presence criticisms have largely been misguided based on playing in pockets that were never clean,” Fahey writes, “so there is little that Gase can ask Tannehill to do that he will struggle with.”

Under his detailed breakdown of number 17, Fahey says Tannehill’s only poor performances came against the Bills and the Rams. If you’re in need of some mathematical assistance, that’s one bad performance for every eight games.

Fahey did express a concern with Tannehill going forward but it had nothing to do with his talent or skills, but how he’ll respond mentally to his season-ending knee injury.

“He has played behind some of the worst offensive lines in the league over the course of his career,” he writes. “The Dolphins passing game should have been a travesty because of it. His willingness to take hits and keep delivering the ball accurately prevented that from happening. It’s also why he got hurt against the Cardinals. That’s the biggest question for Tannehill moving forward. Will he continue to be as confident in his feet and decisive with his actions in the pocket after suffering such a significant knee injury? Only time will tell.”

While Tannehill needs to prove he’s capable of bouncing back from a serious injury, his ability speaks for itself. As a high-end quarterback in a league starving for them, Tannehill may not be on the same level of quarterback gods like Brady or Rodgers, but he’s quietly ascending the ranks no matter what the raw numbers or old-school “analysts” tell you.

[Phishfan]

Wait a minute, we had RT 3 this whole time and never knew it?

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

My take is RT is not nearly as good as Tenshot wants us to believe nor as awful as his detractors would have us believe but a 2nd quartile QB --- somewhere in the 9 to 16 range. 

[EDGECRUSHER]

I still think RT is a Top 10 QB with good protection, but not a guy that can will his team to victory no matter what. Then again, few QB's are. He's done remarkably well for a guy who gets sacked every other down and who has had what, 5 OC's already?

[Tenshot13]

My take is RT is not nearly as good as Tenshot wants us to believe nor as awful as his detractors would have us believe but a 2nd quartile QB --- somewhere in the 9 to 16 range. 

I don't want you to believe anything, I am simply stating facts.  I'm sorry if you feel they are alt-facts or fake news, but you are a Pats fan, so I get it.

[dolphins4life]

Ryan Tannehill has been Miami's starting quarterback since the start of the 2012 season.

Here are the bare facts.

5 seasons as the primary starting quarterback.

1 playoff appearance (when he did not start the last few games of the season.

37-40 record as a starting quarterback

0 playoff wins

0 division titles

0 10 win seasons.

Now let's compare that to Jay Fielder

5 seasons as primary starting quarterback

2 playoff appearances

35-22 record as a starting quarterback

1 playoff win

1 division title

3 10 win seasons

We have to accept the fact that Tannehill is not the guy.  Move on to somebody else. 

[CF DolFan]

Ryan Tannehill has been Miami's starting quarterback since the start of the 2012 season.

Here are the bare facts.

5 seasons as the primary starting quarterback.

1 playoff appearance (when he did not start the last few games of the season.

37-40 record as a starting quarterback

0 playoff wins

0 division titles

0 10 win seasons.

Now let's compare that to Jay Fielder

5 seasons as primary starting quarterback

2 playoff appearances

35-22 record as a starting quarterback

1 playoff win

1 division title

3 10 win seasons

We have to accept the fact that Tannehill is not the guy.  Move on to somebody else. 

Dang. Cameron Wake, Mike Pouncy, Reshad Jones and long snapper John Denny has been playing for us since then too but yet ... we've sucked the whole time. We need to dump all of them and move on.

[masterfins]

Ryan Tannehill has been Miami's starting quarterback since the start of the 2012 season.

Here are the bare facts.

5 seasons as the primary starting quarterback.

1 playoff appearance (when he did not start the last few games of the season.

37-40 record as a starting quarterback

0 playoff wins

0 division titles

0 10 win seasons.

Now let's compare that to Jay Fielder

5 seasons as primary starting quarterback

2 playoff appearances

35-22 record as a starting quarterback

1 playoff win

1 division title

3 10 win seasons

We have to accept the fact that Tannehill is not the guy.  Move on to somebody else. 

Nice cherry picking comparing to Jay Fiedler.  The Miami Defense had Zach Thomas, Sam Madison, Patrick Surtain, and Jason Taylor in those years.  Any decent QB would have had more than one playoff win with that defense.  That's why he was released and out of the league a year later.

[masterfins]

My take is RT is not nearly as good as Tenshot wants us to believe nor as awful as his detractors would have us believe but a 2nd quartile QB --- somewhere in the 9 to 16 range. 

That's a fair assessment, I'd put him at the higher end of the 9 to 16 range.  Which is pretty good for the NFL.  Unless the rest of your team is Top 5, and your losing because of Tannehill, it would be crazy to move on from him by rolling the dice on some unproven QB.  When was the last time you saw a team let a top 10 QB leave in free agency??

[Baba Booey]

Ryan Tannehill has been Miami's starting quarterback since the start of the 2012 season.

Here are the bare facts.

5 seasons as the primary starting quarterback.

1 playoff appearance (when he did not start the last few games of the season.

37-40 record as a starting quarterback

0 playoff wins

0 division titles

0 10 win seasons.

Now let's compare that to Jay Fielder

5 seasons as primary starting quarterback

2 playoff appearances

35-22 record as a starting quarterback

1 playoff win

1 division title

3 10 win seasons

We have to accept the fact that Tannehill is not the guy.  Move on to somebody else. 

Every time you post you prove the old saying is true. CAN'T FIX STUPID!

[DaLittle B]

Man Dolphins4life....I saw your post and thought 2 different things...1.) He's just trolling us all....Then Judge Chamberlain Haller...Are you on drugs?  It's just a whole new level  level of Wrong.

Lamar Smith,and Ricky Williams had nothing too attribute to Fiedler's win total? Tannehill,was a rookie QB,who didn't play QB all 4yrs in College before being drafted,Feidler was on his 4th team in 4 yrs,when he joined the Dolphins.

Feidler had 11,040 yrds, 66 Tds,63 Int's in his 5 yr Dolphins Career...
Tannehill has 18,455yrds, 106 Tds,66 int's in his 5yrs as the Dolphins QB so far.


The cherry picked "Wins" stats...are Wrong....
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FiedJa00.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00.htm

I thought the article was interesting,My expectations of Tannehill,weren't he was going to be the next HOF QB for the Dolphins, he's good enough to win some games for us.Comparing Tannehill, to fedler,is just out there for me....

[Baba Booey]

Man Dolphins4life....I saw your post and thought 2 different things...1.) He's just trolling us all....Then Judge Chamberlain Haller...Are you on drugs?  It's just a whole new level  level of Wrong.

Lamar Smith,and Ricky Williams had nothing too attribute to Fiedler's win total? Tannehill,was a rookie QB,who didn't play QB all 4yrs in College before being drafted,Feidler was on his 4th team in 4 yrs,when he joined the Dolphins.

Feidler had 11,040 yrds, 66 Tds,63 Int's in his 5 yr Dolphins Career...
Tannehill has 18,455yrds, 106 Tds,66 int's in his 5yrs as the Dolphins QB so far.


The cherry picked "Wins" stats...are Wrong....
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FiedJa00.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TannRy00.htm

I thought the article was interesting,My expectations of Tannehill,weren't he was going to be the next HOF QB for the Dolphins, he's good enough to win some games for us.Comparing Tannehill, to fedler,is just out there for me....

He's just a troll. Could have ended it there