Game Balls - Patriots

[dolphins4life]

Cody Parkey

[Tenshot13]

Wake had pressure all day.

[dolphins4life]

Btw, which fourth down were you referring to in the game thread when you said Gase should have punted?  I taped the game and watched it later because I had work during the game. 

[fyo]

Btw, which fourth down were you referring to in the game thread when you said Gase should have punted?  I taped the game and watched it later because I had work during the game. 

I would assume he meant the 4th and 11 midway through the fourth quarter.

[Tenshot13]

I would assume he meant the 4th and 11 midway through the fourth quarter.

That would be the one.

[hordman]

Ughhhhh......not many to chose from.

I thought yesterday was Grant's best day for KO returns, avg almost 25 yds

OL was awful, DL provided no pressure, though Wake and Suh both put some decent licks on Brady.  Thought the DBs played well at times in coverage, though there was still some blown coverages

[masterfins]

I didn't watch the game, but from what I read it sounded like Wake put some good pressures on Brady.

[dolphins4life]

That would be the one.

Are you trying to bait me with a post like this?

You are down two scores with 7 minutes to play.

You HAVE to go for it there.   You probably even have to go for it against an AVERAGE offense, let alone one one of the best in the league.   

To steal Phish's line, "If I ran the team and they don't go for it, Gase is gone for good the next time.

Going for it was Miami's only chance to win the game.

Even if you trust your defense to make a stop, they can still make a stop there and keep it a two score game.

Gase should have gone for it on the fourth and inches earlier. 

[Tenshot13]

Are you trying to bait me with a post like this?

You are down two scores with 7 minutes to play.

You HAVE to go for it there.   You probably even have to go for it against an AVERAGE offense, let alone one one of the best in the league.  

To steal Phish's line, "If I ran the team and they don't go for it, Gase is gone for good the next time.

Going for it was Miami's only chance to win the game.

Even if you trust your defense to make a stop, they can still make a stop there and keep it a two score game.

Gase should have gone for it on the fourth and inches earlier. 

It was 4th and 11on your own 40!  The chances are slim to convert.  You pin them back deep, and play field position.  They still had 2 or 3 time outs, 7 minutes is plenty of time to score twice even if they had the ball.  That is, if your team can execute, something your boy Moore had trouble with all day.

[dolphins4life]

It was 4th and 11on your own 40!  The chances are slim to convert.  You pin them back deep, and play field position.  They still had 2 or 3 time outs, 7 minutes is plenty of time to score twice even if they had the ball.  That is, if your team can execute, something your boy Moore had trouble with all day.

You have a better chance to win by going for it then you do if you punt. 

You are right about Moore, I mean for god sakes throwing across his body, he would have been better off throwing it out of the stadium. 

I am going to ask people on another Dolphins site what they think of the decision.

[Dolphster]

They weren't going to win regardless.  So I can kind of see both sides of this one.  Even Landry said they "didn't have s*** to lose" by going for it.  If it had been 4th and 1 or 2 yards to go, then yeah, go for it.  But the odds of converting on 4th and 11 have to be higher than the odds of hopefully pinning the Patriots back with a good punt, making a defensive stand, and getting the ball back quickly.  But yeah, neither was very likely to happen.  This game was pretty much destined for the loss column before the teams even took the field.

[Tenshot13]

They weren't going to win regardless.  So I can kind of see both sides of this one.  Even Landry said they "didn't have s*** to lose" by going for it.  If it had been 4th and 1 or 2 yards to go, then yeah, go for it.  But the odds of converting on 4th and 11 have to be higher than the odds of hopefully pinning the Patriots back with a good punt, making a defensive stand, and getting the ball back quickly.  But yeah, neither was very likely to happen.  This game was pretty much destined for the loss column before the teams even took the field.

I don't see it that way.  When a team is backed up to their own end zone, it limits their play calling, even for a team as aggressive as NE.  If it was 4th and 6 or less, go for it all day long.  4th and 11 wasn't going to happen at all though.

[fyo]

It was 4th and 11on your own 40!  The chances are slim to convert.  You pin them back deep, and play field position.  They still had 2 or 3 time outs, 7 minutes is plenty of time to score twice even if they had the ball.  That is, if your team can execute, something your boy Moore had trouble with all day.

I was expecting a punt, if only because NFL head coaches are notoriously conservative. As Dolphster said, a win wasn't likely in any case, and I was fine with the decision to go for it.

If you look at it from a purely stat perspective, it was pretty much a toss-up. The historical odds of winning as 16 point underdogs in that position were 0.3%. If you take all teams in that position it's 1%. If you make the first down, those odds quadruple. The league-wide expected conversion rate on 4th and 11 from the 38 yard line is around 25%. Assuming no chance of victory if you fail the conversion, that makes it a statistical wash.

[Tenshot13]

I was expecting a punt, if only because NFL head coaches are notoriously conservative. As Dolphster said, a win wasn't likely in any case, and I was fine with the decision to go for it.

If you look at it from a purely stat perspective, it was pretty much a toss-up. The historical odds of winning as 16 point underdogs in that position were 0.3%. If you take all teams in that position it's 1%. If you make the first down, those odds quadruple. The league-wide expected conversion rate on 4th and 11 from the 38 yard line is around 25%. Assuming no chance of victory if you fail the conversion, that makes it a statistical wash.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.  Fair enough.

[Dolphster]

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.  Fair enough.

Yep.