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Poll
Question: What do you think we should do with Landry and his pending contract?
It's OK to overpay for him because he is an important part of the team   -3 (17.6%)
Stand fast and only pay him if he is willing to accept reasonable money   -5 (29.4%)
Let him go to someone else. He is too immature and costs us too many penalties   -2 (11.8%)
Franchise tag him if he won't accept market value   -7 (41.2%)
Total Voters: 17

Author Topic: Jarvis Landry Contract  (Read 212 times)
CF DolFan
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« on: January 11, 2018, 10:19:33 am »

So ... it's contract time again. There are a lot of opinions on Jarvis Landry including the number of catches, his lack of YPC, and his 15 yard personal fouls.  With that said he is up for contract so I'm curious where people stand.
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« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2018, 11:02:39 am »

I feel this is one where the front office of Tannenbaum,and Gase the coach clash.

For me, I'm in between over pay him/and franchise him.(I don't exactly know what he wanted 1 year ago,versus what he wants now) Regardless of our QB,o-line,he's been productive catches,yards,etc.He's not a guy, well We "believe" he can be great for the next 3-4 years,or coming off injury prone seasons,etc. IMO he's one of the very few players on the team,and been on the team in recent history,we need to lock up long term.I'm not talking 20 million a season overpay.

Modified to add...If the Dolphins feel he's just a slot receiver,and they can somewhat easily replace his production...hmmm...Let's see where have I heard that before? How is the organizations track record of replacing O-lineman,or Te's?
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 11:10:51 am by DaLittle B » Logged

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« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2018, 12:28:07 pm »

Franchise tag him if he doesn't accept a fair offer.
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Dave Gray
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« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2018, 01:21:57 pm »

I don't particularly love high-profile receivers.  I think that they don't touch the ball enough or affect the game as much as some other positions, so I wouldn't want to put big money on it.  Also, Landry seems to give us problems.  I want him on the team, but not at any cost.
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« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2018, 02:30:21 pm »

I voted franchise him, but I think he will accept a fair offer. Now that's not to say that there won't be some discussions, but I think Landry wants to be a Dolphin and I think the Dolphins want Landry to be a Dolphin enough to get a long term contract done.
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CF DolFan
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« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2018, 04:08:22 pm »

Big O has been saying for weeks that he shouldn't be paid like like a number one receiver mostly for two reasons. One ... he doesn't produce like an Antonio Bryant and two ... he isn't as much of a difference maker as people act like. We were winning 6-9 games a season before him and now with him. He is a very solid player but not worth mortgaging the future to keep.

I bring this up because Landry tweeted to him "Who you?" as if to say who are you to question my money. Seems a little immature which is is one of things people dislike about him.

I have to admit ... I've changed my mind. I originally felt they owed him but with time to think after the season I now feel they need to keep him but only if he is reasonable. They can't make him one of the highest paid receivers in the league.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 04:10:20 pm by CF DolFan » Logged

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« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2018, 06:26:58 pm »

I voted franchise if he won't accept market value. It gives a year to examine other options if things go sour.
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Pappy13
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« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2018, 07:10:08 pm »

One.. he doesn't produce like an Antonio Bryant
That's an unfair assessment. No one in the league produces like Antonio Brown and the Dolphins are NOT the Steelers.

and two ... he isn't as much of a difference maker as people act like.
Which people? Isn't he the most productive WR on the Dolphins? Shouldn't he get paid like it?
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« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2018, 05:28:54 am »

That's an unfair assessment. No one in the league produces like Antonio Brown and the Dolphins are NOT the Steelers.
Which people? Isn't he the most productive WR on the Dolphins? Shouldn't he get paid like it?

If all you have is shit players, should you be paying them top dollar, just because they are the best of the shit players on your team?

Now, I like Landry. I think he's undervalued by a lot of metrics and I like the energy he brings on gameday. His temper is an issue, sure, but it doesn't bother me as much as it perhaps should.

Regarding those metrics that may or may not undervalue him.... receiver performance cannot be separated from the quarterback (and offensive line). So when Landry is rated as the 46th most productive receiver by Football Outsiders DYAR metric, that's certainly part of the reason. Per-pass he's ranked even worse, at #59. However, and I cannot stress this enough, Cuttler was bad (and Moore wasn't any better). Sure, the offensive line played a big part, but that's beside the point in this discussion. Landry's advanced metrics last year were a lot better and are likely a better indicator of his performance. They still weren't great, though, with a ranking as 26th in production and 43rd per-pass. A lot of that is because the Dolphins consistently put themselves in third and long, where anything but a first down will result in bad advanced metrics, but as long as the receiver runs his route well and catches the damned ball, that's more on the play call than him. Landry also gets dinged for his "garbage time" production (not worth as much in advanced metrics as same production at other times) and while yards might be somewhat easier to come by late down multiple scores, it isn't exactly Landry's fault the Dolphins have spent a lot of time in that situation.

Let's look at Pro Football Focus, instead. They look at each play individually and, hopefully, objectively. Their grade for him this season is "Above Average", which --
 while not great -- is a lot better than most of the Dolphins.

While I do think these metrics undervalue Landry, they still don't paint a picture of a guy who should be paid top dollar. So, let's flip it around and try to find arguments FOR paying him a boatload of money.

The most positive stat is clearly that he leads the league in receptions. He also catches around 70% of balls thrown his way, which is elite, although certainly something one should expect from a top slot receiver. (The only 2 receivers with significantly higher catch rates this season? Tedd Ginn and Golden Tate.)

First in receptions, but only 17th in terms of total yardage. Plus the 3 or 4 fumbles (varies from site to site). This feels like evaluating Tannehill. Absolutely elite in some numbers, but very pedestrian in others.

Final point for the "pay him" argument: PFF did rate him as the best slot receiver last season and he had (last season) tons of more yardage from the slot than anyone else, leading the league in both yards and receptions from the slot.

So what's he worth? What are the comparables?

TY Hilton signed a 5-year $65 million contract with a $10 million signing bonus in 2015 with half of that guaranteed (only a third fully guaranteed) yielding a payout of $13 mil a year. Hilton compares will with Landry, but sees a lot more work away from the slot, which at least partly explains his higher (much higher this season) yards per catch. Out of the slot last season, Landry saw more yards per reception.

Julian Edelman is quite a bit older, but still very productive in New England and considered one of the top slot receivers. He signed a 3-year extension before the 2017 season worth just over $5 mil a year. Staying in New England and being over 30 keeps that number down. Although injuries can happen to anyone, recovery takes longer with older players (and risk is somewhat higher as well). Edelman, of course, hasn't seen the field this season after tearing his ACL two months after signing the contract.

Another top slot receiver with really bad advanced metrics is Jameson Crowder (Redskins). Crowder is still on his rookie contract, though.

One of the most consistent slot receivers in the NFL is Cole Beasley. Or was until this season. He never saw nearly as many targets, but scored in the elite range on nearly every metric. At less than $4 million a year on a 2015 contract, Beasley was a steal for the Cowboys.

One high-production slot receiver and maybe one of the best comps is Doug Baldwin, who signed a 4 year $46 million extension in 2016, yielding a payout of $11.5 million a year. His production in terms of traditional statistics is very close to Landry's, but his advanced metrics have been consistently better. I would argue that, overall, this is still probably the closest comp to Landry.

Just for reference, the top 3 wide receivers in the league in terms of pay are: Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, and AJ Green (in that order) with salaries in the $15 to $17 million a year range.

Sum total, I would estimate a fair market value for Landry at between $12 to $14 million a year. That would place him just outside the top 5 at the high end and still inside the top 10 at the low end. At the high end, it would make him the best paid slot receiver in the league.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2018, 05:30:55 am by fyo » Logged
DaLittle B
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« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2018, 10:52:25 am »

A couple of things to add (not ranting  Embarrassed )
A side note though...
1.) Landry hasn't tried to hold out,he's been at every offseason workout,not gone in the media,don't tag me or I'll be a problem child etc...
2.) Belichick mentions,can't let this be a Landry game...Makes me think back to when the Patriots got Welker...(I'm not saying it will happen again)

NFL.com has him listed as the number 10,on the top 25 Free agents list....(2nd WR in the top 10)
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000905368/article/top-25-free-agents-of-2018-quarterbacks-top-the-board-for-now

I asked Albert Breer of SI-Monday morning QB,he was asking for questions for his podacst,and he answered my tweet...
https://art19.com/shows/the-mmqb-podcast-with-albert-breer (also on Itunes)

It was near the end,(I thought the London discussion was interesting),He said No, He didn't think the Dolphins would resign him...He brought up the money issue paying Stills last season,with having to pay Parker in the future. SMH,Makes me want to puke paying a big contract to Parker.

Mentions,Jets,Browns,and Colts at teams that may want him.
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CF DolFan
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« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2018, 03:51:16 pm »

A couple of things to add (not ranting  Embarrassed )
A side note though...
1.) Landry hasn't tried to hold out,he's been at every offseason workout,not gone in the media,don't tag me or I'll be a problem child etc...
2.) Belichick mentions,can't let this be a Landry game...Makes me think back to when the Patriots got Welker...(I'm not saying it will happen again)

NFL.com has him listed as the number 10,on the top 25 Free agents list....(2nd WR in the top 10)
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000905368/article/top-25-free-agents-of-2018-quarterbacks-top-the-board-for-now

I asked Albert Breer of SI-Monday morning QB,he was asking for questions for his podacst,and he answered my tweet...
https://art19.com/shows/the-mmqb-podcast-with-albert-breer (also on Itunes)

It was near the end,(I thought the London discussion was interesting),He said No, He didn't think the Dolphins would resign him...He brought up the money issue paying Stills last season,with having to pay Parker in the future. SMH,Makes me want to puke paying a big contract to Parker.

Mentions,Jets,Browns,and Colts at teams that may want him.
I can honestly say I'd rather overpay for Landry than Parker. At least Landry is tops in his position. Parker puts up average numbers and spends half the time on the field. If Parker was what Miami needs him to be then I would pay him first. Unfortunately he can't get open or stay healthy. Landry has no issue with either.
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fyo
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« Reply #11 on: January 13, 2018, 04:48:21 am »

Parker has only ever demonstrated the ability to string two or three good games together. I'd want to see a lot more from him before signing him to a new contract. Landry has been better than Parker in every way.
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Alwaysdullfan
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« Reply #12 on: January 14, 2018, 01:34:48 am »

Jarvis Landry led the league in receptions with 112. I kno he didn't have a lot of yards but that's bcuz of the plays being called, and the type of passes thrown at him. Therefore I'm not worried about that. Maybe it had something to do with protecting the QB and getting rid of the ball quickly also. Eitherway he def. deserves a nice long contract that works both for him and the Dolphins. Maybe 5yrs/60mil. averages to 12mil/yr, and with incentives. For ex. he gets 100+ rec again, that's an extra bonus. Over 1000rec. yards = another bonus and of course staying healthy and playing in at least 15 games....I think that's fair.  And he cant get traded cuz hes a UFA right?
Anyway, Miami finally found a good player in the draft, its one of their own guys, it only makes sense to pay the man. Hes the best and most consistent player on the offense the last 3 years or even since rookie season.
Hopefully he wont ask for crazy money cuz hes got the leverage now. Miami should have signed him last offseason or something. I kind worries me that ur best player isn't signed yet, I hope its only bcuz he didn't wanna be a distraction. But I would trade Parker or Stills sooner or later cuz they cant pay all 3 of them, esp if they get a good TE also.
Parker is too inconsistent and is injured a lot, maybe they should trade him if they get a good offer. They can always draft a big WR or get a good TE in that case. And u still got speedy WRs, explosive RBs and big redzone targets with the TEs
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Alwaysdullfan
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« Reply #13 on: January 15, 2018, 03:18:18 am »


He is a heck of a player. Best and most consistent weapon on offense since Ricky Williams. Of course I would like for him to stay.....but. What if someone is willing to trade for him for a 1st rd. pick. I guess its too late tho for that and I dunno if u can trade under Franchise Tag. But lets say they sign him for few years and then trade him. Just like the Saints did with B.Cooks. They r similar type players, and if Miami could get a 1st rd. pick for him I think I'd do it.
     As much as it hurts saying that but they wont be able to sign all 3; Stills, Landry, Parker anyway. But that would make sense last year, now I don't think they have too many options and they gotta resign him. Which sux cuz he's got all the leverage now. He knows Miami is not just gonna let him walk. So in that case what if we trade Parker for 2 or 3rd pick this year. Trade him while u can cuz wat if he keeps on being injured etc then we don't get crap. Since he's always banged up, Id trade him despite his HIGH potential. They have enough WRs to still be OK and add a TE thru the draft.
     I would still draft LB first. Top ranked LB or top 2. Then in 2nd rd. get OL, prolly Guard. 3rd round. get QB, and in 4th round get TE and mayve another OL, or DB. Def. not waste any picks on WRs or even RBs. Id resign Damien Williams.
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« Reply #14 on: January 15, 2018, 10:26:08 am »

I'm slightly surprised at the numbers of the franchise tag votes,the last I read,I thought the WR Franchise tag was going to be about 16 million. Shocked

I can easily seeing the team using the transition tag on Landry (to save money),then when we fail to match the offer,we get nothing.
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