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Author Topic: Draw on 3rd and 10 from the 5.  (Read 4894 times)
Dave Gray
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« on: November 26, 2018, 03:35:00 pm »

I am trying to understand this kind of thinking.  I know that coaches are smart and they have lots of experience, but I can't wrap my brain around this decision.  It feels like this decision, regardless of outcome, all but ends the game in a loss.

I know that we're probably not going to convert a 3rd and 10.  But a draw doesn't even give you a chance to get the first down.  Punting from there gives the other team the ball, almost in FG range.

What was the idea there?  Were they trying to get 5 yards to go for it on 4th down?  Were they thinking they were going to 3 and out the Colts on the other side?
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MyGodWearsAHoodie
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« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2018, 04:12:43 pm »

if you run and get stopped you can burn some time or force the other team to use a precious time out.  if you attempt a pass and get an incomplete the clock stops without a to. 

However, IMHO pass, pass, run, punt is a faulty plan.  If you are not willing to go for the first down on 3rd and 10, then on 1st and 2nd run the ball as well and force them to use all their TO or suck up some clock and consider a 1st down a bonus.  OR go all in on getting a 1st down, but not split.
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Pappy13
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« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2018, 07:10:45 pm »

I am trying to understand this kind of thinking.  I know that coaches are smart and they have lots of experience, but I can't wrap my brain around this decision.  It feels like this decision, regardless of outcome, all but ends the game in a loss.
Why is everyone focusing on the 3 and 10 from the 5? We ran the ball and punted. It was a smart decision to give Haack enough room to get a good kick off. If Tannehill is sacked or something they are punting from their own endzone or worse they give up a safety. It was the safe thing to do and it worked. Haack punts them back to their own 28 yard line but they get a decent return to the 42. This is still enough cushion to hold onto a tie game for a decent defense. Miami had Indy in 3rd and 9 from their own 43 all they have to do is make a stop on this play and Indy will have to punt the ball back. Luck drops back and they have him in the pocket, he ducks the rush and throws to a WIDE OPEN Rogers for 34 yards covered by our supposed pro bowl safety that hasn't looked like a pro bowler in 2 years. THAT is the play that lost the game right there folks, NOT the hand off. The defense failed the team. Jones failed the team. The pass rush failed the team. Gase didn't fail them. It wasn't Gase that let Indy drive down the field from their own 11 and score an easy TD in 3 minutes to tie the score and it wasn't Gase who gave up a HUGE 3rd down which got them into immediate FG range to win the game. That was ALL on the defense. I understand that everyone is upset but I think everyone wants to blame Gase for everything. At some point players have to step up and make a fucking play.
« Last Edit: November 26, 2018, 07:18:15 pm by Pappy13 » Logged

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Dave Gray
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« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2018, 08:56:30 am »

^ I guess I just disagree.

Punting essentially ends the game.  They got the ball at almost midfield, with only a little yardage needed for FG range, which they got immediately.  But also, there was no indication that we would be able to stop them from moving the ball.

And, really, what's the difference between punting from the 5 and punting from the 10.  The risk/reward of trying to complete a pass to get a first down seems minimal.  You're going to lose the game, anyway....might as well try to get a first down, which likely takes you to OT.
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Pappy13
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« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2018, 11:03:12 am »

But also, there was no indication that we would be able to stop them from moving the ball.
And just what gave you the impression that a pass on 3rd and 10 from the 5 would have picked up the first down? Absolutely NOTHING gave me that impression.

And, really, what's the difference between punting from the 5 and punting from the 10.
Not much, but there's a HUGE difference between punting from the 10 and have a pass picked off and returned for a TD or setting up a TD or a sack and safety in which case you are still punting the ball but now down by 2 or even just a sack and punting from the 1 yard line where the chances for a decent punt are nill and the chances it blocked are increased. Those are all HUGE differences that could have very easily ended the game right there. So maybe you're right and maybe punting just delays the inevitable a bit, but I thought punting gave the Dolphins the best CHANCE (albeit small) at winning the game.
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Phishfan
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« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2018, 11:37:46 am »

I'll just put it like this, everyone I was with knew Miami lost the game once they had to punt.
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« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2018, 11:48:21 am »

Not much, but there's a HUGE difference between punting from the 10 and have a pass picked off and returned for a TD or setting up a TD or a sack and safety in which case you are still punting the ball but now down by 2 or even just a sack and punting from the 1 yard line where the chances for a decent punt are nill and the chances it blocked are increased.

I just think that not running an offensive play because you're afraid of throwing an interception is madness.  I mean...sure...it's possible, but the game is over regardless.  And, I think that having Tanny fumble the ball and give up a TD is preferable to punting there.  At least with a TD, you get the ball back with time to potentially score to tie it.  If you punt, you give up the FG without time remaining.

I just think that punting there gives you such a slim margin of not losing the game in regulation.  Wheras going for it, you potentially pick up 10 yards or a flag.  ...but even if you don't, you get to punt the ball anyway and end up where you were, regardless.

I mean...clearly you're right, because the professionals whose job it is to evaluate this stuff decided to run.  I just can't wrap my head around it. 
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« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2018, 11:54:58 am »

I think Omar hit the nail on the head this morning. It doesn't pay to second guess play-calling since no one really knows the situation. 99% of the people complaining can't even tell you what defense they were in let alone who was hurt and couldn't run or jump.

I agree that I wish we were more aggressive but if we can't throw 15 yard outs during the game then there is no way in hell we can do it backed up in the end zone with the safeties drawn in.
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Pappy13
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« Reply #8 on: November 28, 2018, 07:47:59 pm »

I just think that punting there gives you such a slim margin of not losing the game in regulation.

All Miami had to do was sack luck on 3rd and 9 which they almost did and at worst the game is going to overtime. If they do that Miami gets the ball back with enough time on the clock for a shot at a FG. Also something that no one seems to consider, let's suppose the Dolphins do throw the ball and they make a first down. Indy has all 3 timeouts left. Unless Miami gets ANOTHER first down Indy is still getting the ball back in time to have a shot at a FG.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2018, 07:50:40 pm by Pappy13 » Logged

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Tenshot13
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« Reply #9 on: November 29, 2018, 02:02:43 pm »

Why is everyone focusing on the 3 and 10 from the 5? We ran the ball and punted. It was a smart decision to give Haack enough room to get a good kick off. If Tannehill is sacked or something they are punting from their own endzone or worse they give up a safety. It was the safe thing to do and it worked. Haack punts them back to their own 28 yard line but they get a decent return to the 42. This is still enough cushion to hold onto a tie game for a decent defense. Miami had Indy in 3rd and 9 from their own 43 all they have to do is make a stop on this play and Indy will have to punt the ball back. Luck drops back and they have him in the pocket, he ducks the rush and throws to a WIDE OPEN Rogers for 34 yards covered by our supposed pro bowl safety that hasn't looked like a pro bowler in 2 years. THAT is the play that lost the game right there folks, NOT the hand off. The defense failed the team. Jones failed the team. The pass rush failed the team. Gase didn't fail them. It wasn't Gase that let Indy drive down the field from their own 11 and score an easy TD in 3 minutes to tie the score and it wasn't Gase who gave up a HUGE 3rd down which got them into immediate FG range to win the game. That was ALL on the defense. I understand that everyone is upset but I think everyone wants to blame Gase for everything. At some point players have to step up and make a fucking play.

You say he ducked the rush, I say Andre Branch was held very obviously and holding was not called.  Otherwise Luck is sacked and we win the game.  That was a garbage non call and I'm getting sick of the terrible officiating. 
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Dave Gray
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« Reply #10 on: November 29, 2018, 02:04:25 pm »

You say he ducked the rush, I say Andre Branch was held very obviously and holding was not called. 

Yeah, that was really bad.  They held all game, too.
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« Reply #11 on: November 29, 2018, 02:14:20 pm »

5:55 for the hold.  We aren't a good enough team to overcome terrible officiating, but honestly we shouldn't have to be, refs should just do their fucking jobs.


https://www.colts.com/video/dolphins-vs-colts-highlights-week-12


Also took a screenshot.

url=https://statewideinventory.org/mercedes-0-60-times]2012 mercedes cls550 0 60[/url]
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Pappy13
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« Reply #12 on: November 29, 2018, 02:39:40 pm »

I'm sorry but all that picture does is make the pass rush look even worse. How in the WORLD do they NOT sack Luck there? They have 3 guys closing in on him. He should have NEVER gotten the pass off. NEVER. I don't care how much they were being held. That's a COMPLETE let down by the pass rush. THIS is why we lost the game and it happens FAR too often. That's on the players man. Make the fucking play!
« Last Edit: November 29, 2018, 02:46:02 pm by Pappy13 » Logged

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masterfins
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« Reply #13 on: November 29, 2018, 02:42:43 pm »

You say he ducked the rush, I say Andre Branch was held very obviously and holding was not called.  Otherwise Luck is sacked and we win the game.  That was a garbage non call and I'm getting sick of the terrible officiating. 

The NFL wants the Andrew Luck story lines back to promote their product, hence calls will go in the Colts' favor (no different than Brees, Brady, & Rodgers getting the advantage).  If Miami would trade up to the #1 draft spot, and draft a QB, then they might get these calls in their favor.
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Tenshot13
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« Reply #14 on: November 29, 2018, 02:44:28 pm »

 Roll Eyes
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