Agree if option A has a 99% chance you will lose by 13 and a 1% you will win by 1 vs B which give you a zero % chance of winning but you will only lose by 6. Take option A.
This is silly and meaningless. Whatever gives you the best chance to win is what you take regardless. If option A gives you a 1% chance to win and option B gives you a 2% chance to win you take option B. I never said that the Dolphins shouldn't have gone for it on 4th down because they ended up losing by more points, I simply said that going for it on 4th down didn't help them win. It didn't help the Giants win and it didn't help the Cowboys win either.