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Author Topic: 0-16 is not "better" than 7-9.  (Read 82 times)
Spider-Dan
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« on: September 12, 2019, 04:04:14 am »

Recently, there has been a fairly widespread sentiment among Dolphins fans that it is somehow preferable to have a completely hopeless, talent-free team that stands no chance of competing, in the hopes of drafting a franchise savior who will arrive and right all wrongs.  I think this belief is as misguided as those who claim that losing in the second round of the playoffs every year is just as bad as failing to make the playoffs, because in the latter scenario you get a better pick.  There are two main reasons behind my position:

1) One player cannot make that much of a difference.  In my lifetime, there have only been three instances where the worst team in the league has drafted a player #1 overall, who then significantly contributed to that team winning a championship:

- DAL drafting Troy Aikman in '89... but the Cowboys were helped at least as much by the Herschel Walker trade
- Rams drafting Orlando Pace in '97... followed by them signing an undrafted HOF QB who led the highest scoring offense in any three-year period of league history
- IND drafting Peyton Manning in '98

So in practice, there has only been one instance in my life where the worst team in the league has drafted a instant savior that turned the franchise around.  And he won them a total of one championship.

2) A very bad roster - bad enough to earn the #1 pick - hurts you more than early picks help you.  It is significantly more difficult to go from the absolute worst team in the league to a championship, than it is to go from a middling or below-average team to a championship.  Again, look at the history of NFL champions (and especially champions with multiple SB appearances) over the last 40 years or so.  These teams did not build championship rosters from total garbage; they were below-average or underachieving teams who made key personnel acquisitions (but notably: not their own #1 overall pick) that led to improved results.


Tanking - intentional or not - has a TERRIBLE record of success in the NFL.  The dangers of becoming the next Browns or Bengals far outweigh any benefit from a few early picks.  Losing creates a culture of losing, which makes it difficult to attract quality coaching candidates - arguably the most important component of a championship team.
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Dolphster
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2019, 08:35:32 am »

Personally, I can kind of see both sides of this topic.  But you definitely laid out a sound defense of your point.   Having played sports all my life and a couple of years professionally (at a low level, nothing to get excited about), I can say that being on a horrible team definitely creates a culture of losing where mediocrity becomes acceptable and it is very easy to start half assing everything.   It is an excellent topic and I hope that it leads to a good discussion here. 
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EDGECRUSHER
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2019, 09:13:52 am »

You want that #1 pick without being completely void of any NFL talent. Unfortunately, we really dumped or traded anyone with talent for draft picks and cap space. On the good side, we have tons of draft picks and cap space. I would rather have two 1st Rounders and a 2nd than Laremy Tunsil who is a solid but not great LT.

We aren't pinning all of our hopes on Tua, even though he is the biggest piece of the rebuild. We are pinning our hopes on Tua, the tons of draft capital and $130 Million in cap space. This can be a fast rebuild with good drafting and free agency moves. I'll take this strategy over our perpetual 7-9 seasons any day of the week.
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CF DolFan
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2019, 09:25:24 am »

Most of these players will not be here in two years ... many being gone next year. They are place cards until they can be replaced.  Under normal circumstances we would be going through a fire sale now but we were so successful in the off-season at that we've already done it. If Flores can keep his core players in it mentally then he will be fine.
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Itís hard to win an argument with a smart person, but itís damn near impossible to win an argument with a stupid person - Bill Murray
EDGECRUSHER
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2019, 10:38:10 am »

Most of these players will not be here in two years ... many being gone next year. They are place cards until they can be replaced.  Under normal circumstances we would be going through a fire sale now but we were so successful in the off-season at that we've already done it. If Flores can keep his core players in it mentally then he will be fine.

Exactly. Our secondary is actually pretty good, we just need them to buy into this lost season and keep pushing forward. We do need our first 3 picks of April's draft to hit though, can't make mistakes on that one, especially because they are on the lines.
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Seafort
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« Reply #5 on: September 14, 2019, 12:44:57 pm »

My fear is that they wonít, and weíll end up trading Howard and Fitzpatrick too. If there wasnít a salary floor, Iíd say this almost resembles one of the Marlins fire sales.
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