Draft Topic: Let's Say Tua Does Not Declare...

[EDGECRUSHER]

I think you are in for a letdown. I'd say the odds of Miami taking Tua at #5 are about 50/50 and I'd say the odds of him being available at #5 are about 90/10.

We'll know more the month before when they get a better look at his medicals an whatnot, but if he declares and team doctors say he will recover 100% then 90% we take him at 5 if he is there. We can't do anything about teams jumping us but with such a heavy Top 5 of talent, I don't think a team would pass up a Chase Owens or Andrew Thomas unless they were blown away with an offer. Teams may not do that for Tua because of the injury.

[Spider-Dan]

Keep in mind that if Tua were 100% healthy, MIA would have no chance of getting him with the #5 pick.  None.  Either Tua and Burrow would go to CIN and WSH (in some order), or some team would trade up with DET/NYG to get him.  So I say count your blessings.

This is another Laremy Tunsil situation.  MIA should not even be in a position to draft Tua right now, and it's a miracle that they might be able to get him.

[fyo]

^ Tunsil dropped  for something that had no direct impact on performance or ability to actually play. Tua will drop because he can't walk.

[Spider-Dan]

Tunsil dropped because there were concerns he may have off-the-field problems.
Tua may drop because of concerns in his ability to recover his on-the-field play.
Off-the-field problems still matter.  Ask any team who has signed Antonio Brown or Josh Gordon.

In any case, given MIA's draft position, an injured Tua is the only possible Tua they could have acquired at that slot.  In a certain sense, this may have worked out as well as could be expected for the Dolphins.  And if MIA drafts Tua and he sits for a year, then leads the league again in negative point differential next season, the possibility exists that MIA could either a) draft Lawrence and trade Tua for a later first or b) keep Tua and Lawrence for an RG3/Cousins scenario.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Tunsil dropped because there were concerns he may have off-the-field problems.
Tua may drop because of concerns in his ability to recover his on-the-field play.
Off-the-field problems still matter.  Ask any team who has signed Antonio Brown or Josh Gordon.

In any case, given MIA's draft position, an injured Tua is the only possible Tua they could have acquired at that slot.  In a certain sense, this may have worked out as well as could be expected for the Dolphins.  And if MIA drafts Tua and he sits for a year, then leads the league again in negative point differential next season, the possibility exists that MIA could either a) draft Lawrence and trade Tua for a later first or b) keep Tua and Lawrence for an RG3/Cousins scenario.

We finished the year 5-4, the only reason we finished the year with the worst point differential were Weeks 1 & 2. So, we're not going to be competing for that top draft pick next year.

No team ahead of us would draft Tua due to drafting 1st round QBs in 2019 or having a high priced QB signed for many years in Detroit's case. So, even if Tua were healthy we would be able to draft him at 5 as long as some team didn't leapfrog us. If he were healthy, I would say that's possible. With his injury? Incredibly unlikely. People second guess every GM who makes a big draft trade to go in the Top 5, but to do so for someone coming off a major injury? Puts his job on the line.

[Pappy13]

In a certain sense, this may have worked out as well as could be expected for the Dolphins.  And if MIA drafts Tua and he sits for a year, then leads the league again in negative point differential next season, the possibility exists that MIA could either a) draft Lawrence and trade Tua for a later first or b) keep Tua and Lawrence for an RG3/Cousins scenario.

Let's just hope that Tua goes back to Alabama and we don't have to make the decision. I'd much rather we just take healthy players in the draft. There's enough of a risk of injury taking healthy players, why add to the risk taking players who already have injury concerns? I guess maybe I'd be more on board if I thought Tua was a slam dunk generational talent like many seem to think, but I don't. The odds of Tua becoming the next Brady are about the same as someone drafting the next Brady in the 5th round in my humble opinion.

Edit: Just heard that he's entering the NFL draft. Hope I'm wrong about the kid.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

it is official he is entering the draft

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/01/06/tua-tagovailoa-to-enter-2020-nfl-draft/

[hordman]

Edit: Just heard that he's entering the NFL draft. Hope I'm wrong about the kid.

Agreed.  I am a Bama fan (for the last 35+ years, so I don't get bent out of shape about Saban & his time here) and I believe he should have stayed at Bama and rehab.  But I get it, he's gonna be a Top-10 pick, maybe even a Top-5, but I'm NOT big on drafting someone who has history of being injured:

tightrope surgery on both ankles
sprained right knee October 2018
obviously, hip displacement this Fall

I know everyone gets dinged on some level, but I just listed some pretty decent injuries for a QB, who is suppose to be mobile in the pocket.

If he had half of these problems, I would love to have him. Knowing this and seeing him play the last 2 season, I'm anxious to take him.  He could be great, and he could be injury prone in the NFL.  NFL can be brutal for players.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Agreed.  I am a Bama fan (for the last 35+ years, so I don't get bent out of shape about Saban & his time here) and I believe he should have stayed at Bama and rehab.  But I get it, he's gonna be a Top-10 pick, maybe even a Top-5, but I'm NOT big on drafting someone who has history of being injured:

tightrope surgery on both ankles
sprained right knee October 2018
obviously, hip displacement this Fall

I know everyone gets dinged on some level, but I just listed some pretty decent injuries for a QB, who is suppose to be mobile in the pocket.

If he had half of these problems, I would love to have him. Knowing this and seeing him play the last 2 season, I'm anxious to take him.  He could be great, and he could be injury prone in the NFL.  NFL can be brutal for players.

Absolutely, it's definitely a concern and I don't know if I would be on board with taking him if we didn't have two other 1st rounders plus two 2nd rounders. But, considering his talent level and our obvious need for a franchise QB, I'd draft him even if he hobbled onto the stage with crutches.

[Fau Teixeira]

if he wasn't injured, we couldn't get him at 5 .. end of story .. as it is we have a chance to get him at 5 but could still get leapfrogged.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Sometimes drafting a player with an injury history works out sometimes it doesn't.  Drafting a TE with a history of back injuries is probably more foolhardy than drafting a QB with a hip injury. 

if he wasn't injured, we couldn't get him at 5 .. end of story .. as it is we have a chance to get him at 5 but could still get leapfrogged.

I doubt you get leapfrogged.  A GM/coach would literally be putting his job on the line.  Drafting a player that doesn't work out is one thing.  Trading up to the top-5 to draft an injured player that doesn't workout will get you fired. 

[EDGECRUSHER]

I doubt you get leapfrogged.  A GM/coach would literally be putting his job on the line.  Drafting a player that doesn't work out is one thing.  Trading up to the top-5 to draft an injured player that doesn't workout will get you fired. 

Exactly, if a GM trades away multiple first rounders for a kid who plays 12 games in his first 2 years, he's gone.

As far as not being able to draft him if he were healthy, I disagree with that. The way the chips fell, he would probably still be around at 5 anyway because the Giants and Skins selected a 1st round QB in 2019 and the Lions are tied to Stafford at big money for at least a few more years. It just worked out that he or Burrow would've been available for us regardless of health.

[CF DolFan]

The Redskins are the probably the most likely to go after Tua if it happens. Hard to say how they feel when they are basically starting over with a whole new staff.

[EDGECRUSHER]

The Redskins are the probably the most likely to go after Tua if it happens. Hard to say how they feel when they are basically starting over with a whole new staff.

This can't be ruled out entirely, they are an incredibly poorly run franchise and abandoning the 15th overall pick in 2019 despite not surrounding him with talent is something they would do. I do feel that it is still very unlikely but you can never predict what dumb people do.

[Phishfan]

Sometimes drafting a player with an injury history works out sometimes it doesn't.  Drafting a TE with a history of back injuries is probably more foolhardy than drafting a QB with a hip injury. 

The tight end went in the second round,  the quarterback is being talked about top five. Apples and oranges.