What If - Miami elects not to draft a quarterback?

[Seafort]

Here's a bit of contrarian thinking - Miami has built up a hoard of draft choices and the conventional wisdom appears to be coalescing around the Dolphins trade most of those extra picks to move up one or two spots to select Tua. But what if the Dolphins organization does the exact opposite? Suppose that they take that #5 pick and trade down, hopefully acquiring another first rounder next year and an additional pick in this year's draft.

Miami needs to rebuild the roster - particularly offensive line - before putting a potentially fragile young quarterback in Tua on the field. By trading down in the 2020 draft they can accomplish this. And if they so desire, they could pick up Jalen in perhaps the second or third round to serve as a backup to the quarterback that Miami could target in 2021.

[Spider-Dan]

Given that Tua will be unlikely to see much playing time in 2020 anyway, MIA will have two full drafts (including 3 extra first-round picks) to build the team before he would be expected to play.

At some point, you have to do something with the picks you've amassed.  Trading down to stockpile picks isn't helpful if you can't convert those picks into good players, and MIA is in desperate need of top-flite talent.  They need to be spending their early picks, not converting them into additional mid-round selections.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I would only consider trading down if Tua is not available at 5. Even then, only trading down a few spots if it nets us an extra 1st rounder or multiple 2nd rounders. It's easier to hit the higher your pick is, we don't exactly have a history of hitting on every 3rd and 4th rounder we select.

[Tenshot13]

If Miami doesn't draft a QB with that first pick, it better be Simmons from Clemson, that guy is a beast!

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Given that Tua will be unlikely to see much playing time in 2020 anyway, MIA will have two full drafts (including 3 extra first-round picks) to build the team before he would be expected to play.

At some point, you have to do something with the picks you've amassed.  Trading down to stockpile picks isn't helpful if you can't convert those picks into good players, and MIA is in desperate need of top-flite talent.  They need to be spending their early picks, not converting them into additional mid-round selections.

Not taking a QB doesn't necessarily mean trading down

[Sunstroke]

Miami has built up a hoard of draft choices and the conventional wisdom appears to be coalescing around the Dolphins trade most of those extra picks to move up one or two spots to select Tua.

Actually, conventional wisdom seems to be sitting at #5 and taking Tua at that spot, and then taking their other 1st/2nd rounders and addressing both O and D-lines.

[hordman]

I would only consider trading down if Tua is not available at 5. Even then, only trading down a few spots if it nets us an extra 1st rounder or multiple 2nd rounders. It's easier to hit the higher your pick is, we don't exactly have a history of hitting on every 3rd and 4th rounder we select.

i agree with you Edge.  If he's not there at 5, dropping down a handful of spots to gather up another pick in the 1st round (maybe 2nd round at worst) is the way to go.  We need top flight talent.

[Tenshot13]

Actually, conventional wisdom seems to be sitting at #5 and taking Tua at that spot, and then taking their other 1st/2nd rounders and addressing both O and D-lines.

This

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

It's easier to hit the higher your pick is, we don't exactly have a history of hitting on every 3rd and 4th rounder we select.

This is true. 

But lets say you are offered 3 - 3rds and 3- 4ths for a first.  Your odds of hitting on a first is undoubtedly better than your odds of hitting on any individual late round pick.  However, I would suggest your odds that at least one of those 6 late round picks will be a quality player (not all 6 are busts) is greater than the odds that the one early pick is not a bust.  And it is a mathematical certainty that you have a greater probability of drafting two or more quality players with the six picks than with the one (because it is impossible with just one pick)

[Sunstroke]

If Miami doesn't draft a QB with that first pick, it better be Simmons from Clemson, that guy is a beast!

You and I seem to be fairly simpatico on a number of players this year. I absolutely LOVE Isaiah Simmons, and believe he is the 2nd best defensive player in this class. I hope whoever drafts him stops the whole "safety experiment" that Clemson seemed determined to keep trying, and lock him in as the weakside linebacker. That way you can still utilize his coverage skills (which are top shelf for a backer), but still keep him up in the front 7 to use his ball attacking skills in all the different ways he can impact a game.

Dream scenario:  Draft Tua at #5, Simmons slides a little into the #9-#12 range, Miami packages their #18 and 1-2 of our surplus 2nd rounders over 2020/2021 and moves up to get Simmons. Then, at #26, scoop Tyler Biadasz to anchor the interior O-line for the next decade.

Sweet football dreams are made of these...

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Sweet football dreams are made of these...

Who do you want the 49rs to get with the 31st pick?  😇

[Spider-Dan]

Not taking a QB doesn't necessarily mean trading down

From the OP:

But what if the Dolphins organization does the exact opposite? Suppose that they take that #5 pick and trade down, hopefully acquiring another first rounder next year and an additional pick in this year's draft.

 

[EDGECRUSHER]

This is true. 

But lets say you are offered 3 - 3rds and 3- 4ths for a first.  Your odds of hitting on a first is undoubtedly better than your odds of hitting on any individual late round pick.  However, I would suggest your odds that at least one of those 6 late round picks will be a quality player (not all 6 are busts) is greater than the odds that the one early pick is not a bust.  And it is a mathematical certainty that you have a greater probability of drafting two or more quality players with the six picks than with the one (because it is impossible with just one pick)

Agreed. If some team made that offer to us for the 18th pick I would take it. Champions aren't built with Pro Bowlers everywhere, they're built with good players everywhere and rarely someone who sucks. I just wouldn't do it with the #5 pick because the odds of us landing a franchise QB with that pick is infinitely higher than with any of the 3rds and 4ths.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Agreed. If some team made that offer to us for the 18th pick I would take it. Champions aren't built with Pro Bowlers everywhere, they're built with good players everywhere and rarely someone who sucks. I just wouldn't do it with the #5 pick because the odds of us landing a franchise QB with that pick is infinitely higher than with any of the 3rds and 4ths.

If there is a QB at 5 the team is highly confirmed will be a franchise QB absolutely they should draft him.  Where problems occur is if there is nobody you love, but you take the next available QB because “you need a QB”.

[EDGECRUSHER]

If there is a QB at 5 the team is highly confirmed will be a franchise QB absolutely they should draft him.  Where problems occur is if there is nobody you love, but you take the next available QB because “you need a QB”.

Oh yeah, that mentality has doomed franchises forever. Bears with Mitch, Jets with Darnold, Bills with Allen(I don't like him).