Give me Herbert over Tua.

[Tenshot13]

I have to agree with Spider on this one.

[Pappy13]

Because he can't walk NOW, the presumption from doctors recently is that he will return to 100% health and the injury won't hinder him in the future. Our doctors will due lots of due diligence as well. It's still definitely a risk, but without the injury he is taken #2 in the draft and deservedly so. When can we draft a QB like this again without getting lucky with the 17th overall pick or finding a hidden gem in the 4th round? It's worth the risk.

The key word there is presumption and it's exactly that a presumption. Actually if you look at the history of this type of injury there's probably at least a 50/50 chance that he's going to have some long term issues with that hip. It may not effect his ability to be a franchise QB, but it might as well. The doctors don't know how this will turn out, no one does. All this talk that there's no more risk of him getting injured again is talking about him getting injured again which has nothing to do whether or not this injury will have an effect on his career. It very well might.

https://orthoinfo.aaos.org/en/diseases--conditions/acetabular-fractures/

[Pappy13]

The irony here is that if MIA had tanked correctly and actually had the #2 pick this year, I would not be in favor of drafting an injured Tua; I'd be saying to draft Chase Young.  An injured Tua is no longer a good value at #2 with an edge-rusher like Young still available, but at #5 with the other elite talent likely off the board, Tua becomes a great pick.

If Tua's injury history were the ONLY thing to worry about with him, I would probably agree with you, but it's not for me. I'd have had some questions about Tua's ability to be a franchise NFL QB even if he wasn't injured, his injury history and his chances of getting injured in the NFL are only 1 part of it. While you seem to think that Herbert is under hyped, I tend to think that Tua has been over hyped. I think this is really where we differ.

And looking back over the last 20 years of over hyped QB's, none of them have really panned out to match the expectations. Mahomes you might say, but I don't really remember Mahomes being overhyped, I kinda remember him being a bit of a surprise top pick after the season he had much like Burrow this year but maybe my memory is bad on him. It's really been the more overlooked QB's that have surprised people. I'm not saying that Herbert is going to be the one to surprise, I don't really think that, I just think he's a better prospect then Tua all things considered. If we had the #1 pick, I'd go with Burrow, but we do not have the #1 pick.

For me, taking Tua at #5 seems to be reaching for a QB just for the sake of taking a QB. Originally I wanted to actually take Herbert with our 2nd pick at #18 which I thought was a good spot to take him, but seeing him rise up the boards now, that's no longer a possibility. So if you like him you're going to have to take him at #5 even though that might be a bit of a reach for him as well. If we are going to take a QB at #5, give me Herbert over Tua, but I'd be happy with passing on a QB at #5 completely as well and maybe get one of the others later.

[Tenshot13]

If Tua's injury history were the ONLY thing to worry about with him, I would probably agree with you, but it's not for me. I'd have had some questions about Tua's ability to be a franchise NFL QB even if he wasn't injured, his injury history and his chances of getting injured in the NFL are only 1 part of it. While you seem to think that Herbert is under hyped, I tend to think that Tua has been over hyped. I think this is really where we differ.

And looking back over the last 20 years of over hyped QB's, none of them have really panned out to match the expectations. Mahomes you might say, but I don't really remember Mahomes being overhyped, I kinda remember him being a surprise top pick rather, maybe my memory is bad on him. It's really been the more overlooked QB's that have surprised people. I'm not saying that Herbert is going to be the one to surprise, I don't really think that, I just think he's a better prospect then Tua all things considered.

What else worries you about him?  Except for Burrows, he can read a defense better than any QB in college, scanning multiple receivers.  He is crazy accurate.  He's smart.  He'll still have more escapability than a lot of QBs even with the injury.

His only cons are size, being left handed (not that a big a deal imo) and injury history.  

[Pappy13]

His only cons are size, being left handed (not that a big a deal imo) and injury history.  

Those 3 and he also doesn't have a ton of playing experience at the college level. Maybe I shouldn't say he doesn't have a ton but that's one of the things I like about Herbert, he's had a lot more game experience. That's a point in his favor in my opinion. Maybe he hasn't been as spactacular as Tua, but he also didn't have the weapons that Tua has had and he's been very successful for 4 straight years. When did that become a bad thing? That seems to be working against him these days, I don't get that.

[Tenshot13]

Tua - 32 games
Herbert - 43 games

Herbert has 11 more games under his belt as a Senior to Tua's as a Junior.  Doesn't seem like that much of a difference to me.

[Pappy13]

Tua - 32 games
Herbert - 43 games

Herbert has 11 more games under his belt as a Senior to Tua's as a Junior.  Doesn't seem like that much of a difference to me.

Tua only started 24 games. He doesn't get a lot of credit for thowing a total of 77 passes in 8 games that he didn't start. How about comparing attempts.

Tua: 684
Herbert: 1273

[Phishfan]

I wouldn't say being More Likely To Walk In 2020 makes Herbert a better pick.  

In all seriousness, I believe Herbert is another Mitch Trubisky, Sam Darnold, or Daniel Jones: the "We gotta get somebody at QB" candidate.  He's not a long-awaited draftee like Luck, Tua, or Lawrence; he didn't have an amazing breakout year like Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, or RG3; he's not even the QB of a championship team like Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, or Deshaun Watson.  He's just A Guy That's In The Draft This Year.

edit: The irony here is that if MIA had tanked correctly and actually had the #2 pick this year, I would not be in favor of drafting an injured Tua; I'd be saying to draft Chase Young.  An injured Tua is no longer a good value at #2 with an edge-rusher like Young still available, but at #5 with the other elite talent likely off the board, Tua becomes a great pick.

You have never seen me say anything about drafting Herbert so I have no idea why you keep trying to hang that on me. You still can't accept the risk in drafting a QB that can't walk. You just called it a great pick.  Whoever gets him will be disappointed when it all plays out.

[Tenshot13]

Tua Tagovailoa, via #SBLive on @nflnetwork: I'll be participating in the combine but my main goal is not to win the 40, not to win the bench press but to win my medical. I'm going to go over there looking to win my medical and then go in and interview with the teams.

https://twitter.com/NFLDraft/status/1222917546690543616

[mod edit: fixed link that broke page formatting]

[Tenshot13]

Andy Slater (@AndySlater)
Tua wants to get drafted by the Dolphins?

Early Thursday on radio row, @FoxSports640 producer @sdiener86 told Tua’s dad he hopes his son gets taken by Miami.

Tua’s father said “so do we.

https://twitter.com/AndySlater/status/1222942149680996352

[EDGECRUSHER]

Andy Slater (@AndySlater)
Tua wants to get drafted by the Dolphins?

Early Thursday on radio row, @FoxSports640 producer @sdiener86 told Tua’s dad he hopes his son gets taken by Miami.

Tua’s father said “so do we.

https://twitter.com/AndySlater/status/1222942149680996352

It would be nice if that were true, but his Father may just be saying that so he doesn't fall. If Miami passes on Tua, then other teams might be spooked and he could fall into the teens or worse.

[masterfins]

The more I think about this the more I want the Dolphins to take a LT with their 5th pick.  If Tua or Herbert are there come the 18th pick then draft them then.  Without a new star QB for 2020 Miami will not have that much of an improved record, as it seems their schedule will be tougher than 2019's.  In 2021 Miami will have two 1st round picks and two 2nd round picks (their own & Texas' for both), they can certainly trade up to get the star QB of that draft, and overall the team will be more experienced having let the 2020 draftees get a year of playing in.  Additionally maybe there won't be as many other stinky teams occupying the top spots.  Not to mention it gives another year to really throw Rosen into the fire and see if he is an NFL QB, maybe they won't have to draft a QB.

[EDGECRUSHER]

The more I think about this the more I want the Dolphins to take a LT with their 5th pick.  If Tua or Herbert are there come the 18th pick then draft them then.  Without a new star QB for 2020 Miami will not have that much of an improved record, as it seems their schedule will be tougher than 2019's.  In 2021 Miami will have two 1st round picks and two 2nd round picks (their own & Texas' for both), they can certainly trade up to get the star QB of that draft, and overall the team will be more experienced having let the 2020 draftees get a year of playing in.  Additionally maybe there won't be as many other stinky teams occupying the top spots.  Not to mention it gives another year to really throw Rosen into the fire and see if he is an NFL QB, maybe they won't have to draft a QB.

You can only trade up to draft the star QB in the draft if the team holding the #1 pick doesn't want him. There is literally no offer on the table that the Bengals would accept for Burrow, not even our 5 1st rounders the next two years because they want him. We will not be in a position to draft a potentially amazing QB like this for probably a long time. Whoever gets the #1 pick next year, very good shot it is not us, will probably not have a franchise or star QB already in place so they will select Lawrence unless you promise to forfeit games against them on top of several 1st rounders. It just does not happen with QBs.

[BuccaneerBrad]

You can only trade up to draft the star QB in the draft if the team holding the #1 pick doesn't want him. There is literally no offer on the table that the Bengals would accept for Burrow, not even our 5 1st rounders the next two years because they want him. We will not be in a position to draft a potentially amazing QB like this for probably a long time. Whoever gets the #1 pick next year, very good shot it is not us, will probably not have a franchise or star QB already in place so they will select Lawrence unless you promise to forfeit games against them on top of several 1st rounders. It just does not happen with QBs.

But there's Lawrence AND Fields, who outplayed Lawrence in the CFP semi-final game.   Ohio State should've won that game easily.  I'm sure two first rounders and two second rounders is enough to grab at least the number two spot.

[Spider-Dan]

The more I think about this the more I want the Dolphins to take a LT with their 5th pick.  If Tua or Herbert are there come the 18th pick then draft them then.  Without a new star QB for 2020 Miami will not have that much of an improved record, as it seems their schedule will be tougher than 2019's.

If MIA drafts Tua this year they can let him rest, then grab a top tackle with their (very early) pick next draft.