Anyone still holding out hope for Tua at #5...

[masterfins]

More often than not players that come into the NFL with injury histories do not last.  It's not baseball, football is a contact sport, and Tua's brand of play counts on him being mobile and that adds a level of injury risk.  I'm not going to be upset if they take him at #5, I just think it would be the wrong pick.  But I would be livid if they gave up other picks to move up and take him before #5.

[EDGECRUSHER]

More often than not players that come into the NFL with injury histories do not last.  It's not baseball, football is a contact sport, and Tua's brand of play counts on him being mobile and that adds a level of injury risk.  I'm not going to be upset if they take him at #5, I just think it would be the wrong pick.  But I would be livid if they gave up other picks to move up and take him before #5.

I think I would only be okay with giving up a 2nd rounder or two. I really don't want to part with a 1st "just in case". That's the part that kills me the most, we could be giving away valuable draft picks for no reason. To me, that is the biggest gamble.

[masterfins]

I think I would only be okay with giving up a 2nd rounder or two. I really don't want to part with a 1st "just in case". That's the part that kills me the most, we could be giving away valuable draft picks for no reason. To me, that is the biggest gamble.

I wouldn't be as irate if they gave up a single 2nd round pick and a later round pick in addition to swap #1 pick with the Lions or Giants, but it would be dumb to get in a bidding war with the Chargers, or some other team to move up one or two spots.  I don't know what the point value is, Stroke would probably know, but if the Giants or Lions swap with Miami they are still going to be able to draft the guy that is #1 on their board so it shouldn't take much to move up a spot or two.  And as good as Tua is, or may be, I don't see a lot of GM's willing to give away the future to get him given his injury history, because if it goes south they are out of a job.

I'm in the minority here, but I don't care if they even draft a QB this year if they can fill many of their voids.  There are some great tackles, LB's, and D-Lineman in this draft, and if they could hit on 5 starters between the first three rounds I'd be ecstatic.  They could continue to use Fitz and work on Rosen, then after a seven win season they could bundle draft picks next year to get a QB.

[EDGECRUSHER]

It's not so much what the pick is worth in general, it's what is the pick worth if there is a bidding war? In theory, moving up to #3 from #5 is worth a 2nd rounder. What's it worth with the Chargers and maybe a mystery team bidding? At least a 1st and 2nd.

[Sunstroke]

I wouldn't be as irate if they gave up a single 2nd round pick and a later round pick in addition to swap #1 pick with the Lions or Giants, but it would be dumb to get in a bidding war with the Chargers, or some other team to move up one or two spots.  I don't know what the point value is, Stroke would probably know, but if the Giants or Lions swap with Miami they are still going to be able to draft the guy that is #1 on their board so it shouldn't take much to move up a spot or two.  And as good as Tua is, or may be, I don't see a lot of GM's willing to give away the future to get him given his injury history, because if it goes south they are out of a job.

I'm in the minority here, but I don't care if they even draft a QB this year if they can fill many of their voids.  There are some great tackles, LB's, and D-Lineman in this draft, and if they could hit on 5 starters between the first three rounds I'd be ecstatic.  They could continue to use Fitz and work on Rosen, then after a seven win season they could bundle draft picks next year to get a QB.

The point values of the #3-#5 picks, plus the point values of Miami's other picks looks like this:

3-Lions  -     2200
4-Giants -    1800
5-Dolphins - 1700

18-Dolphins - 900
26-Dolphins - 700
39-Dolphins - 510
56-Dolphins - 340
70-Dolphins - 240


I personally don't think Miami is going to trade up. I think they'll sit at #5 and take either Herbert or Tua, whichever one makes it to #5 and/or has the most support in the draft room.

[EDGECRUSHER]

The point values of the #3-#5 picks, plus the point values of Miami's other picks looks like this:

3-Lions  -     2200
4-Giants -    1800
5-Dolphins - 1700

18-Dolphins - 900
26-Dolphins - 700
39-Dolphins - 510
56-Dolphins - 340
70-Dolphins - 240


I personally don't think Miami is going to trade up. I think they'll sit at #5 and take either Herbert or Tua, whichever one makes it to #5 and/or has the most support in the draft room.

I believe they will stay where they are as well, although the Lions and Giants may both ant to trade down meaning that 3 QBs are taken with the first 4 picks. I think I can live with giving up the 56th and 70th pick to make sure we get Tua or Herbert, whomever the office wants. I would just hate to miss out on everyone if all it would take is a 2nd and 3rd rounder when we have 14 picks this year and a ton next year as well.

[Tenshot13]

This should be important for Herbert and Love fans.  Please draft Tua.

https://twitter.com/PFF_Mike/status/1249719196793126912

Mike Renner
@PFF_Mike
The one stat that would terrify me if I'm considering draft Justin Herbert or Jordan Love is this...

% of uncatchably off-target throws targeting when an OPEN receiver 5-18 yards downfield in 2019:

Tua 4.3%
Hurts 5.0%
Burrow 5.1%
Love 14.1%
Herbert 18.1%

[Sunstroke]

^^^ There is something fishy about that stat... just sayin'

[Tenshot13]

^^^ There is something fishy about that stat... just sayin'

Fishy how?  It's worded kind of funny, but it's basically saying the percentage of throws that are uncatchable and off target when the receiver is open, which should be the easiest throws to make.

[BuccaneerBrad]

I would take a pass on Tua at #5.  He is brittle and if he can't withstand a full college season, how do you expect him to handle the NFL?   The best thing to do is shore up your trenches or trade down a couple spots with some team who wants Tua and pick up more picks. 

Stockpile picks for next year.  Sign Newton or Jameis to a two year deal that is front-loaded so that if they don't work out, you can cut them after this season and not take a big cap hit.  Then use your draft capital to move up in 2021 for Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields.

[Pappy13]

Fishy how?  It's worded kind of funny, but it's basically saying the percentage of throws that are uncatchable and off target when the receiver is open, which should be the easiest throws to make.

I'd like to see the data for this. I find it hard to believe that 18% of throws between 5-18 yards to an open reciever were uncatchable especially when his overall completion percentage for ALL throws is almost 70%. Something isn't right here unless we are talking about a very small number of passes where 1 extra uncatchable pass is going to skyrocket your % and is not indicative of anything.

For example 2 out of 11 passes would be 18% but 1 out of 11 would be 9%. So he had 2 bad passes out of 11? Who cares? We need numbers and games to go with these stats.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I would take a pass on Tua at #5.  He is brittle and if he can't withstand a full college season, how do you expect him to handle the NFL?   The best thing to do is shore up your trenches or trade down a couple spots with some team who wants Tua and pick up more picks. 

Stockpile picks for next year.  Sign Newton or Jameis to a two year deal that is front-loaded so that if they don't work out, you can cut them after this season and not take a big cap hit.  Then use your draft capital to move up in 2021 for Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields.

1) You don't want to trade 7 draft picks to move up for Lawrence
2) You won't even be able to if the holder of that #1 pick needs a QB, just like the Bengals this year with Burrow

[Tenshot13]

I'd like to see the data for this. I find it hard to believe that 18% of throws between 5-18 yards to an open reciever were uncatchable especially when his overall completion percentage for ALL throws is almost 70%. Something isn't right here unless we are talking about a very small number of passes where 1 extra uncatchable pass is going to skyrocket your % and is not indicative of anything.

For example 2 out of 11 passes would be 18% but 1 out of 11 would be 9%. So he had 2 bad passes out of 11? Who cares? We need numbers and games to go with these stats.

He says in the thread these are the Pass attempts.  I'm sure you could tweet him and get a sure source.  He's from PFF, he should be credible

51 tua
80 hurts
100 burrow
78 love
77 Herbert

[CF DolFan]

I realize he has a big arm but isn't Herbert actually known for throwing a lot of short passes and screens?

[BuccaneerBrad]

1) You don't want to trade 7 draft picks to move up for Lawrence
2) You won't even be able to if the holder of that #1 pick needs a QB, just like the Bengals this year with Burrow

You've got two firsts next year.   You won't have to trade seven picks to move up for Lawrence or Fields.  Especially if Houston ends up sucking.