Playoff thread

[EDGECRUSHER]

Barring a miracle comeback the Bills will NOT be resting their starters

Being the 2nd seed is better than being the 3rd, but with no real homefield advantage this year, is it worth it if it means playing some banged up guys who could use a rest?

[EDGECRUSHER]

Browns are 1 game behind the Steelers and play the Jets next week and finish against the Steelers. If Pittsburgh loses to Indy next week, something that seems likely at this point the way both teams have been playing, Week 17 is for the AFC North.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Just found out this is incorrect.  If Baltimore loses to the Giants and defeats the Bengals, and Miami finishes 10-6, Baltimore wins the tiebreak over Miami

Yeah, we lost every single tiebreak against every single team that can go 10-6. That sucks.

Our only hope is Baltimore either dropping their next 2 while we go 10-6 or we go 11-5, those are the only two scenarios in which we make the playoffs. Saturday is a playoff game for us essentially.

[Tenshot13]

Screw everyone else, we're going to win out and get hot going into the playoffs.  Lessssssgoooooo

[EDGECRUSHER]

Screw everyone else, we're going to win out and get hot going into the playoffs.  Lessssssgoooooo

I'm very confident that we will beat the Raiders, we are the better team and we actually have something to play for. We can also beat the Bills but that will be tough, even tougher will be beating them 2 weeks in a row which is the most likely scenario as they will be the 2 seed and we will be the 7 seed. It's possible the Steelers win their next two games and regain the 2nd seed but they are circling the drain right now.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

If we go into week 17 with the Bills in a situation where losing to the Dolphins means the Bills host the Dolphins the following week, best course of action for the Bills is to play a generic game plan but play competitive enough to require the fins to show their hand.

[Pappy13]

If we go into week 17 with the Bills in a situation where losing to the Dolphins means the Bills host the Dolphins the following week, best course of action for the Bills is to play a generic game plan but play competitive enough to require the fins to show their hand.

If I'm the Bills, I want Miami out of the playoffs if there is any chance they could meet them in the playoffs. It's never a good idea to play a team from your own division in the playoffs. They know you too well and there's already a built in rivalry which could mean that playoff game goes anyway regardless of the relative strength of the teams. I'd much rather do whatever it took to beat the Dolphins and host a wild card team that rarely comes to Buffalo. Your odds in the playoff game are much better in that scenario in my opinion.

[Dave Gray]

I think all this about the Bills sitting guys and not trying to win is just wishful thinking --- that's old-school mentality.  I think these guys would rather carry the momentum of winning into the playoffs.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

If I'm the Bills, I want Miami out of the playoffs if there is any chance they could meet them in the playoffs. It's never a good idea to play a team from your own division in the playoffs. They know you too well and there's already a built in rivalry which could mean that playoff game goes anyway regardless of the relative strength of the teams. I'd much rather do whatever it took to beat the Dolphins and host a wild card team that rarely comes to Buffalo. Your odds in the playoff game are much better in that scenario in my opinion.

Work both ways you know your division rivals better too.  If I am the Bills I want to play Fins or Colts in a negative wind chill.  Browns and Ravens practice in the cold.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I think all this about the Bills sitting guys and not trying to win is just wishful thinking --- that's old-school mentality.  I think these guys would rather carry the momentum of winning into the playoffs.

That's more likely than not, I'm just saying if going into the game Josh Allen is a game day decision with a hamstring problem, they would be very stupid to start him. Everyone has bumps and bruises but if your top players are going to play hurt, it's not going to bode well for them for the next 3 playoff rounds and then Superbowl.

If we had clinched a spot going into the game, I would want us to rest whoever is hurt.

[fyo]

Just found out this is incorrect.  If Baltimore loses to the Giants and defeats the Bengals, and Miami finishes 10-6, Baltimore wins the tiebreak over Miami

Yeah, we lost every single tiebreak against every single team that can go 10-6. That sucks.

Our only hope is Baltimore either dropping their next 2 while we go 10-6 or we go 11-5, those are the only two scenarios in which we make the playoffs. Saturday is a playoff game for us essentially.

This is incorrect.

At 10 wins, we'd own tiebreakers (conference record) over the Browns and Colts (but not the Titans).

Dolphins v Ravens @ 10 wins each:

Wild Card Tie-breakers for two teams in different divisions go: (T1) Head-to-head, (T2) conference, (T3) common games, (T4) strength of victory, etc.

T1: The Ravens and Dolphins don't have a head-to-head.
T2: The Dolphins are currently 6-4 in the AFC with 2 conference games remaining. 10 wins equals 7-5 conference record. The Ravens are currently 6-5 in the AFC with 1 conference game remaining. 10 wins can result in EITHER 6-6 OR 7-5 conference record. If the Ravens lose to the Bengals, the Dolphins win the tie-breaker.
T3: If the Ravens win over the Bengals, but lose to the Giants, T2 is tied and we move to common opponents. They are Chiefs, Bengals, Patriots, Jaguars. At 10-6 with a win over the Bengals, the Ravens are 3-2 in common games, just like the Dolphins.
T4: The Ravens are ahead by quite a bit on Strength of Victory, but there is plenty of room for us to win this tiebreaker. At 10 wins and actually reaching this tiebreaker, the Ravens lost to the stronger of their two remaining opponents, meaning we would gain 4 or 8 wins of 12.5 that separate us in SoV. We've each won a bunch of games featuring opponents that the other hasn't beat/played. With two rounds left, that's a substantial potential shift. Basically, we'd want SF, NYJ, LAR, ARI, LAC, LV, BUF, and NE to win, while CLE, HOU, WAS, CIN, PHI, IND, and DAL lose. There are quite a few games between those teams remaining (e.g. SF@ARI), so it's not a potential shift of 16 wins, but it is *possible* (realistically, it would require us beating the Bills + some luck).

[EDGECRUSHER]

According to the ESPN Playoff Machine, we can still make the playoffs if we lose next week as long as the Browns lose to the Steelers. The Jets just gave us a big backdoor into the postseason with that win today.

[Pappy13]

According to the ESPN Playoff Machine, we can still make the playoffs if we lose next week as long as the Browns lose to the Steelers. The Jets just gave us a big backdoor into the postseason with that win today.

Or if the Colts lose to the Jags or the Ravens lose to the Bengals although those are less likely.

[Dave Gray]

Any one of 4 teams winning gets us into the playoffs.

Dolphins win.
Steelers win.
Jaguars win.
Bengals win.

538's modeling has us at a 74% chance of getting in.

[Pappy13]

What no one has mentioned yet is that Miami could actually be the 5th seed and get to play Tennessee if they beat Buffalo and the rest of the favored teams win. That would be an interesting matchup. Not sure I'd want to face the Tennessee ground game but it might be better then facing Buffalo's offense.