Quarterback situation for next year

[Pappy13]

Tua is the pick we made, we owe it to ourselves to let that pan out.  You can't do that if Fitz is waiting to come in at the end of every game we're losing.  Tua hasn't had a fair shot, either.  He needs a preseason, mini-camps, to build a rapport with the team, the ability to make mistakes, to play from behind, etc.  It doesn't mean he's going to be a start; you just gotta let it play out.

I'm willing to give Tua another year, but he needs to show improvement and I don't care whether Fitz is there to back him up or not, he needs to make it happen. Competition brings out the best in champions. If Tua can't thrive because Fitzpatrick is on the roster then Tua isn't the guy we all hoped he would be end of story.

[Spider-Dan]

Haven't you heard, Rosen never got a chance.

The irony is that Rosen was given more slack than Tua has been.

[masterfins]

I find all of these comparison to Herbert and Lawrence to be moot.

We didn't draft Herbert and we're not going to be able to draft Lawrence, so who gives a shit?

Tua is the pick we made, we owe it to ourselves to let that pan out.  You can't do that if Fitz is waiting to come in at the end of every game we're losing.  Tua hasn't had a fair shot, either.  He needs a preseason, mini-camps, to build a rapport with the team, the ability to make mistakes, to play from behind, etc.  It doesn't mean he's going to be a start; you just gotta let it play out.

Great points Dave.  I would add that Tua was coming off a severe injury, and Miami was starting a couple rookie offensive lineman.  With a shortened practice year behind them I would expect that next year Tua will start beginning to end, unless he gets injured.  And that more, if not all, of the playbook will be open to him.  I just hope he has the arm to throw the deep ball, because this year he seemed like he was underthrowing receivers and they had to come back to the ball; could have been by design.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Great points Dave.  I would add that Tua was coming off a severe injury, and Miami was starting a couple rookie offensive lineman.  With a shortened practice year behind them I would expect that next year Tua will start beginning to end, unless he gets injured.  And that more, if not all, of the playbook will be open to him.  I just hope he has the arm to throw the deep ball, because this year he seemed like he was underthrowing receivers and they had to come back to the ball; could have been by design.

Don't forget that he barely had any talent to play with. Our running backs were garbage for the first 14 weeks and only Parker was okay. Give him actual weapons next year with a more experience O-Line, a preseason and more work with Gailey and then see what he can do. If he doesn't show solid improvement next season, then we're in trouble.

[Spider-Dan]

I would like to see Tua be allowed to sink or swim next season, but if Fitz is still on the roster, I expect that we will see the exact same type of coaching decisions.

[fyo]

Nice article on how little help Tua got from receivers:

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article247466865.html

30th in YAC (Parker second worst of players with 100+ catches)
Parker's average separation from defender was tied for worst and Gesicki's was worst among tight ends.
Dolphins receivers had the highest drop-rate in the league with Tua throwing, dropping 18 of 290 passes.*
Dolphins receivers dropped > 10% of deep balls by Tua, compared to ZERO of Fitz' deep balls.

Pass protection was equally poor, which is perhaps not surprising when you start 3 rookies on the offensive line for most games, with the line consistently scoring in the bottom 10 (and even worse if you adjust by pass attempts, which was not done in the article) in pressures and sacks.

The offensive line was below average at run blocking, ranking 19th in yards before contact on runs, aided not at all by our running backs who averaged a league worst 1.4 yards after contact and a 3rd worst 19 broken tackles all year (compared to 49 by the Vikings' running backs).

(*Personally, I dislike drop stats. Having actually done real scientific work on them a decade or so ago, I can attest that we found that official figures varied wildly in what was considered a drop from team to team, stadium to stadium, and even week to week with other factors held constant. We were not able to find any objective or even reasonably consistent subjective measures that could reliably reproduce anything even remotely resembling the official numbers. Even such a "noisy" data source might be relevant when looking at a total season, but we weren't ultimately able to make such a determination due to persistent team biases over the range of data we were looking at.)

[Tenshot13]

Nice article on how little help Tua got from receivers:

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article247466865.html

30th in YAC (Parker second worst of players with 100+ catches)
Parker's average separation from defender was tied for worst and Gesicki's was worst among tight ends.
Dolphins receivers had the highest drop-rate in the league with Tua throwing, dropping 18 of 290 passes.*
Dolphins receivers dropped > 10% of deep balls by Tua, compared to ZERO of Fitz' deep balls.

Pass protection was equally poor, which is perhaps not surprising when you start 3 rookies on the offensive line for most games, with the line consistently scoring in the bottom 10 (and even worse if you adjust by pass attempts, which was not done in the article) in pressures and sacks.

The offensive line was below average at run blocking, ranking 19th in yards before contact on runs, aided not at all by our running backs who averaged a league worst 1.4 yards after contact and a 3rd worst 19 broken tackles all year (compared to 49 by the Vikings' running backs).

(*Personally, I dislike drop stats. Having actually done real scientific work on them a decade or so ago, I can attest that we found that official figures varied wildly in what was considered a drop from team to team, stadium to stadium, and even week to week with other factors held constant. We were not able to find any objective or even reasonably consistent subjective measures that could reliably reproduce anything even remotely resembling the official numbers. Even such a "noisy" data source might be relevant when looking at a total season, but we weren't ultimately able to make such a determination due to persistent team biases over the range of data we were looking at.)

Great post, I'm already sharing it with the haters lol.

[EDGECRUSHER]

How was Gesicki the worst when it comes to separating form the defender when he had a good year? Those two things seem to contradict each other.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Dolphins receivers dropped > 10% of deep balls by Tua, compared to ZERO of Fitz' deep balls.

I am not sure if this proves the receivers are bad.  Sounds like Fitz throws a more catchable ball than Tau.

[Tenshot13]

I am not sure if this proves the receivers are bad.  Sounds like Fitz throws a more catchable ball than Tau.

Fitz doesn't exactly throw lasers, he throws touch jump balls to Gesicki and Parker who both can jump over a building. 

[fyo]

How was Gesicki the worst when it comes to separating form the defender when he had a good year? Those two things seem to contradict each other.

There's an extremely small sample size when it comes to deep passes, which makes "luck" a probable cause. I certainly remember to very easy dropped balls on long throws by Tua. As mentioned, though, you never know how a given throw is going to be charted in the official stats.

Anyway, considering the small sample size, it would be easier to go back and just look at those passes (we're taking less than 70 throws total for Tua and Fitz combined).

[fyo]

How was Gesicki the worst when it comes to separating form the defender when he had a good year? Those two things seem to contradict each other.

He had a good year because he was thrown to a lot. As for separation, maybe he was just more open than the receivers? Even though he wasn't as open on average as other tight ends.

The point being, of course, that less separation makes it harder on quarterbacks, thereby indicating that our quarterbacks (Tia in particular) might be expected to do better if the guys catching the ball could get at least average open. It's not meant to disparage our receivers. Routes, route combos, and other aspects of play design all impact how open a receiver gets.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Fitz doesn't exactly throw lasers, he throws touch jump balls to Gesicki and Parker who both can jump over a building. 

So basically....when Fitz is QB Gesicki and Parker are dynamic receivers that can make acrobatic catches of poorly thrown balls, but the moment Tau steps on the field they become bums that drop balls that bounce off their hands.   Not buying.

[dolphins4life]

So basically....when Fitz is QB Gesicki and Parker are dynamic receivers that can make acrobatic catches of poorly thrown balls, but the moment Tau steps on the field they become bums that drop balls that bounce off their hands.   Not buying.

Well, Brady stepping on the field makes other coaches turn into incompetent morons and players do insanely stupid things, so there is a precedent for it.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Rumors swirling that Fitz is unlikely to be back and it would be mutual. Fitz wants to play and the team doesn't want Tua looking over his shoulder all year. We will probably end up with a McNown or something and that's fine.

We all know Fitzmagic runs out when it is used too much so this is best for everyone involved.