With the 3rd pick the Dolphins select DeVonta Smith

[CF DolFan]

I say the odds are in favor of trading the pick right now. Bengals want Sowell, lots of other teams want a QB, be it Wilson or Fields. We honestly are going to have a bidding war and that is great for us and realistic, not just a fantasy trade scenario that we want to happen.

Trade back to 5 with Cincy and we can still probably get Smith. Trade back to 9 with Carolina and that isn't as likely but our trade package will be that much better.

Joe Rose said you'll never hear them admit it publicly but the Dolphins have a long history of trading back and then not getting any of the guys they thought they could get. Does anyone know realistically what we could get from moving to 5? I keep seeing a lot of wishful thinking but I have a really hard time thinking we would get a 1st to trade back 2 spots let alone a package of picks. 

[Sunstroke]

Does anyone know realistically what we could get from moving to 5?

I mocked a trade with Cinci this past week that gave Miami the #5 overall, plus 2.5 and 3.5 this year, plus a second rounder next year.

[fyo]

Joe Rose said you'll never hear them admit it publicly but the Dolphins have a long history of trading back and then not getting any of the guys they thought they could get. Does anyone know realistically what we could get from moving to 5? I keep seeing a lot of wishful thinking but I have a really hard time thinking we would get a 1st to trade back 2 spots let alone a package of picks.  

The realistic thing to get when trading back from #3 to #5 used to be a high second the same year. Future picks are generally discounted by a round, so you might imagine that you could get a 2022 first round pick for the swap. Maybe.

That's according to the old Jimmy Johnson "The Chart" that's been widely used since he created it back when he took over the Cowboys.

Since the introduction of the rookie wage scale in '12, top picks have fallen a bit in value, although the fluctuations from year to year are enormous, since they depend on a precise, very limited set of players. Generally, the value of moving back two spots from #3 to #5 has fallen on average about a round, so now you can expect - in an average year - about a mid third. Or a 2022 second.

I think this year, with the top quarterback availability, plus Sewell, and the top 3-4 picks are solidly above an average year. I'd say the old chart is the best we could possibly expect, probably more realistic if a swap of 3rd and 4th round picks is included (to our disadvantage) or maybe we sweeten the pot with a fifth.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Joe Rose said you'll never hear them admit it publicly but the Dolphins have a long history of trading back and then not getting any of the guys they thought they could get. Does anyone know realistically what we could get from moving to 5? I keep seeing a lot of wishful thinking but I have a really hard time thinking we would get a 1st to trade back 2 spots let alone a package of picks. 

It really depends on what people are willing to pay for it. Dropping from 3 to 5 seems like it is worth a 2021 2nd rounder of 2022 1st rounder, but if the Panthers want to give us 2 first rounders and more for the pick? Then Cincy has to match that to a degree. Lots of teams want that #3 pick for a QB and Cincy wants it for the OT so realistically speaking it wouldn't be shocking if one of these teams overpays. Atlanta can just wait at #4 for their QB knowing we won't draft one but they have to be careful we don't trade the pick either.

Cincy is least likely to overpay because if anyone trades for our pick it won't be for Sowell and Atlanta at 4 has other needs.

[Spider-Dan]

Just keep in mind that our position this year isn't that different from NYG or DET last year.  There's a clear dropoff in QB desirability after the first pick and the teams may be willing to just roll the dice and take who they get, especially since picks 3-6 all have much bigger needs than QB.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Just keep in mind that our position this year isn't that different from NYG or DET last year.  There's a clear dropoff in QB desirability after the first pick and the teams may be willing to just roll the dice and take who they get, especially since picks 3-6 all have much bigger needs than QB.

Right now, Fields and Wilson will be going 2nd, leaving the other guy for 3rd. After Wilson it appears to be a substantial drop off so that guy will be coveted. Maybe no one trades up but it is different from last year because Tua fell due to injury concerns. If he was 100% healthy, he and Burrow go 1 and 2. No injury concerns for the Top 3 QBs in 2021.

[CF DolFan]

I mocked a trade with Cinci this past week that gave Miami the #5 overall, plus 2.5 and 3.5 this year, plus a second rounder next year.

Wow .... That's more than I would have thought.

[EDGECRUSHER]

FWIW, the Lions have stated that they will part ways with Matthew Stafford. That means they are in line for a new QB and  probable rebuild since they suck. The Lions currently pick 7th, so we can trade down with them and still very likely land one of Smith, Chase or Waddle while accumulating more picks. Teams that draft 4, 7, 8 and 9 all need QBs. Our pick might be the most valuable in the draft because 1 and 2 are basically set in stone.

[Dolphster]

There are stats that track everything in the NFL these days so I'm sure this information is out there somewhere, I just don't care enough to spend the time trying to find it.  But I'm curious as to whether some positions have a higher "bust rate" as Top 10 draft picks than others.  For example, just because the college game doesn't always translate to the NFL game when it comes to Quarterbacks, I would assume that Quarterbacks have a higher frequency of being draft "busts" in the Top 10 picks than maybe Wide Receivers or Offensive Tackles.  If a team has a glaring need at a specific position I doubt that this type of stat would sway their pick.  But if you have the luxury of having a Top 10 pick and you just want to have the best shot at someone who is not going to be a bust, would you look at a position that history shows is "safer" than the rest of the positions with your Top 10 pick?

[EDGECRUSHER]

There are stats that track everything in the NFL these days so I'm sure this information is out there somewhere, I just don't care enough to spend the time trying to find it.  But I'm curious as to whether some positions have a higher "bust rate" as Top 10 draft picks than others.  For example, just because the college game doesn't always translate to the NFL game when it comes to Quarterbacks, I would assume that Quarterbacks have a higher frequency of being draft "busts" in the Top 10 picks than maybe Wide Receivers or Offensive Tackles.  If a team has a glaring need at a specific position I doubt that this type of stat would sway their pick.  But if you have the luxury of having a Top 10 pick and you just want to have the best shot at someone who is not going to be a bust, would you look at a position that history shows is "safer" than the rest of the positions with your Top 10 pick?

Oh, absolutely QBs have a higher bust rate in the Top 10 than anyone else because that is the one position teams really reach for based off of need. You have QBs who aren't even Top 25 in terms of prospects going in the Top 10 almost every year. Darnold and Josh Rosen in one year alone just because the teams needed QBs.

No one drafts a linebacker 8th when he could've gone in the 2nd round just because they needed a linebacker.

[CF DolFan]

Funny story about the draft I recently learned. Maybe you already do. In 1997 Norv Turner fell in love with Jason Taylor who he coached in the Senior Bowl. Norv was coach of the Redskins at the time. After trying to convince his guys to draft Jason he saw that it wasn't going to happen so he got on the phone with Jimmy to take a another look at the skinny kid with great ability. The rest is Dolphins history. Norv Turner did us a hell of favor.

In 1997 Washington coach Norv Turner coached it. He noticed a skinny kid from a small school was his team’s best player all week. He just couldn’t convince Washington’s personnel people to take a chance on him.

So in trading information with his former boss, Turner told Dolphins coach Jimmy Johnson about the player. Johnson studied up on him. He then drafted Jason Taylor in the third round, and Taylor stayed skinny all the way to the Hall of Fame.

For the record Dolphin staff didn't want him either but Jimmy overruled them.

[Spider-Dan]

So far I have been really underwhelmed with MIA's non-Tua first-round draft picks last year.  It makes it difficult to place a high value on stockpiling picks.

[EDGECRUSHER]

So far I have been really underwhelmed with MIA's non-Tua first-round draft picks last year.  It makes it difficult to place a high value on stockpiling picks.

Austin Jackson did solid for a rookie, far from a bust.

Drafting Noah was perplexing because that was absolutely a position of strength plus he projected as somewhat of a project. Very talented kid, could be amazing but definitely not the pick I would've made.

[Spider-Dan]

Austin Jackson did solid for a rookie, far from a bust.

MIA has some serious needs at the WR position, with the first Heisman-winning WR in 30 years certain to be available.  Yet here we are less than a year after drafting Jackson at #18, talking about spending the #3 pick on another left tackle.

I think that says a lot about Jackson's season.

Drafting Noah was perplexing because that was absolutely a position of strength plus he projected as somewhat of a project. Very talented kid, could be amazing but definitely not the pick I would've made.

Yeah, given that MIA had traded Minkah midseason and released Reshad, I was very surprised that they did not draft Xavier McKinney or another safety.  Not sure why you draft another CB in the first round when you have the highest paid CB duo in the league.

[EDGECRUSHER]

MIA has some serious needs at the WR position, with the first Heisman-winning WR in 30 years certain to be available.  Yet here we are less than a year after drafting Jackson at #18, talking about spending the #3 pick on another left tackle.

I think that says a lot about Jackson's season.
Yeah, given that MIA had traded Minkah midseason and released Reshad, I was very surprised that they did not draft Xavier McKinney or another safety.  Not sure why you draft another CB in the first round when you have the highest paid CB duo in the league.

At the time, I was thinking they were using Noah as insurance in case Xavier had another injury season or was going to be suspended or worse for that domestic issue he had. Maybe that was their thinking but I still didn't agree with it. McKinney was a better choice even though he broke his foot.