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Author Topic: Are We f*ckin Doing this Again?  (Read 7231 times)
Pappy13
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« Reply #45 on: September 22, 2021, 01:05:09 pm »

Pappy, did you think CIN should have taken Herbert over Burrow?  I mean, Herbert has been better so far.
Not particularly, I had Burrow and Herbert ranked even but CIN had already seemed to have made up their mind they were taking Burrow so that only left Herbert as the choice for Miami for me. Not really sure what you are getting at here as this discussion is not whether or not Burrow or Herbert would have better for Miami as that was not the choice Miami had the choice they had was between Herbert and Tua and the other QB's and I liked Herbert much better than any of the other QB's available to Miami to draft.

Taking Herbert over Tua would have been suicidal.  Even with Tua's play so far (which, let's keep in mind, has not been bad; he has an 85.4 passer rating and the best record BY FAR of the QBs in his class)
Record has nothing to do with it and never has for me. I don't believe that QB's should get credit for wins/losses for games they play because it's not an individual stat, it's a team stat and therefore you can't assign a W or an L to any 1 player. Heck you can't even look at records when you are comparing entire offenses as defense and special teams also play into wins and losses as well. Beyond that you'd have to consider strength of schedule as well. Then take for example that Tua wasn't even on the field when Miami took the lead for good against the Raiders and clearly played poorly enough to lose the game for them. Comparing records for QB's is a completely arbitrary way of comparing QB play and meaningless to me.

Passer ratings can be pretty arbitrary as well because certainly the other players on your team as well as the other team play into that as well but at least it's a bit more of an apples to apples comparison than record is.

If you feel that Tua has outplayed Herbert in their NFL careers, I'll just say that I don't agree with you and I'll leave it at that, not going to get into an argument with you on that subject.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2021, 11:03:24 pm by Pappy13 » Logged

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ArtieChokePhin
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« Reply #46 on: September 22, 2021, 01:15:01 pm »

If you feel that Tua has outplayed Herbert in their NFL careers, I'll just say that I don't agree with you and I'll leave it at that, not going to get into an argument with you on that subject.

If he feels that Tua has outplayed Herbert in the NFL, I've got some mountainside property here in Florida to sell him.
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Spider-Dan
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« Reply #47 on: September 22, 2021, 02:18:25 pm »

Not particularly, I had Burrow and Herbert ranked even but CIN had already seemed to have made up their mind they were taking Burrow so that only left Herbert as the choice for Miami for me. Not really sure what you are getting at here as this discussion is not whether or not Burrow or Herbert would have better for Miami as that was not the choice Miami had the choice they had was between Herbert and Tua and the other QB's and I liked Herbert much better than any of the other QB's available to Miami to draft.
If you had Herbert and Burrow "ranked even" then your perception of Herbert was so far out-of-step with the rest of the football world that it's not actionable.

Now, do you get credit for Herbert living up to your belief in him?  Of course!  But almost literally no one else thought Herbert was a valid option for the #1 overall pick.  It's basically a "I told everyone Mahomes should have been drafted #1 overall"-level take.  I mean, I thought that Lamar Jackson was being undervalued in the 2018 draft, and he's the only QB from that draft with an MVP award... but if I had insisted that he should be drafted ahead of Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, you guys would have said I'm psycho.

Quote
Passer ratings that can be pretty arbitrary as well because certainly the other players on your team as well as the other team play into that as well but at least it's a bit more of an apples to apples comparison than record is.
If this is the case, how can you say Herbert is any better than Tua?  Or any QB is better than any other QB, for that matter?  I mean, the one game where Herbert and Tua were playing the same day on the same field under the same conditions, Tua directly outplayed Herbert.

If you're going to discount stats because teammates and opponents aren't the same, you're basically eliminating the ability to compare players.

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If you feel that Tua has outplayed Herbert in their NFL careers, I'll just say that I don't agree with you and I'll leave it at that, not going to get into an argument with you on that subject.

Direct quote: "Herbert's Marino-like outperformance of expectations does not change the fact that it would have been insane to take him over Burrow or Tua based on perceived talent."
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Pappy13
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« Reply #48 on: September 22, 2021, 03:32:40 pm »

If you had Herbert and Burrow "ranked even" then your perception of Herbert was so far out-of-step with the rest of the football world that it's not actionable. Now, do you get credit for Herbert living up to your belief in him?  Of course!  But almost literally no one else thought Herbert was a valid option for the #1 overall pick.
That's not true at all. Chris Simms had Herbert ranked as the #2 ranked QB pre draft and had Tua #4.  I even linked this exact link to this forum back when it came out. The fact that you don't know this is very telling. You and a lot of others simply had a very highly inflated opinion of Tua and a much lower opinion of Herbert, but not everyone thought that and some very smart people that do analysis for a living thought otherwise.

https://www.nbcsports.com/video/nfl-draft-2020-chris-simms-explains-ranking-tua-tagovailoa-no-4-qb
« Last Edit: September 22, 2021, 03:36:02 pm by Pappy13 » Logged

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Spider-Dan
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« Reply #49 on: September 22, 2021, 04:40:34 pm »

The statement you quoted has nothing to do with your response.  I'll reiterate:

If you had Herbert and Burrow "ranked even" then your perception of Herbert was so far out-of-step with the rest of the football world that it's not actionable. Now, do you get credit for Herbert living up to your belief in him?  Of course!  But almost literally no one else thought Herbert was a valid option for the #1 overall pick.

If YOU thought Burrow vs. Herbert was a toss-up, of course you were going to think MIA should have taken Herbert over Tua!  But no one else had that high of an opinion of Herbert.  Even in the video you linked, Chris Simms repeatedly referred to Tua's injury history as a reason for his concern.
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Pappy13
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« Reply #50 on: September 22, 2021, 04:51:25 pm »

If you're going to discount stats because teammates and opponents aren't the same, you're basically eliminating the ability to compare players.
ESPN's QBR, not QB rating does a more objective look at how the QB impacted the plays that he was a part of rather than just looking at stats. I still consider it flawed because I think they tend to rate "stars" higher than other players on individual plays but it's probably the best indicator that we have for rating QB play. I mean how you get to be a "star" is by playing well so I guess being a "star" does give you a bit of a built in advantage, not unlike giving "star" NBA players the benefit of the doubt on foul calls, etc.

If we compare QBR's for Justin Herbert and Tua last year, Justin had a QBR of 62.6 and Tua had a QBR of 44.8. The top player, Aaron Rodgers had a 79.8 QBR rating just to give a sort of measuring stick. Justin's QBR rating put him 13th highest rated QB in the league last year and Tua's rating made him the 26th highest rated QB. What might come as a huge shock to you is that Ryan Fitzpatrick had a QBR of 72.6 last year making him the 5th highest rated QB in the league last year and to some that might invalidate this rating a bit, but just the opposite for me. I thought Fitz had a very good year last year (perhaps his best as an NFL QB) and was severely underrated by most Dolphins fans as to how well he played given the circumstances. He vastly outplayed Tua in my opinion and I debated whether Fitz should have been removed to put Tua in. In my opinion that decision may have cost Miami a chance at a playoff game as I think Fitz may have won a game here or there that Tua didn't manage to win. Maybe not, Fitz is a bit streaky and maybe we just got a bit lucky and only really saw the good Fitz and not the bad Fitz, we'll never know.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2021, 04:58:03 pm by Pappy13 » Logged

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Pappy13
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« Reply #51 on: September 22, 2021, 05:06:17 pm »

The statement you quoted has nothing to do with your response.  I'll reiterate:

If YOU thought Burrow vs. Herbert was a toss-up, of course you were going to think MIA should have taken Herbert over Tua!  But no one else had that high of an opinion of Herbert.  Even in the video you linked, Chris Simms repeatedly referred to Tua's injury history as a reason for his concern.
His injury history was only ONE of the MANY reasons that he had Herbert ranked higher than Tua. He also mentioned arm strength and size. He also mentions that Tua played for Alabama and that if you were to put Herbert on Alabama he would have put up monster numbers as well, all of the things that I have mentioned. I agreed with him on ALL of the things he mentions at that time and I still think it's true. Tua is small and prone to injury in the NFL. He played for a very good team with a very good offensive line and very good receivers, perhaps better than some NFL caliber players, probably better than Miami's line and WR's and that was in college where the talent disparity between teams is even larger which inflated his numbers. Herbert played on a very average offensive team which made his numbers look less spectacular by comparison. Nothing has changed my mind about any of that.

Simms had Herbert ranked second to Burrow and in that video he claims that Herbert had the biggest upside, even higher than Burrow, so no it's NOT true that EVERYONE thought that Burrow was OBVIOUSLY the best QB in the draft. You thought that. Not EVERYONE thought that in fact a guy that does QB analysis for a living thought Burrow and Herbert were very close, he did have Burrow ranked higher, but not by much. That's pretty much exactly in line with what I thought. I said last year that given the choice between Burrow and Herbert I would take Burrow but that doesn't mean I thought he was the clear choice, he was a more accomplished QB, so yeah take the one that seems like a better bet. I would not have had an issue with either player though even if Miami was picking 1st and I would stick by that opinion today.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2021, 10:38:08 pm by Pappy13 » Logged

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Pappy13
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« Reply #52 on: September 22, 2021, 06:56:23 pm »

I'll just leave this here. Go read this thread.

http://www.thedolphinsmakemecry.com/forums/index.php?topic=26090.0

I start off the thread saying that I preferred Herbert to Tua.

Stinkfish sort of agrees with me.

Hoodie says he's starting to agree with me.

Sunstroke says he would be good with either Tua or Herbert.

Spider then says that he doesn't like one year wonders (I'm paraphrasing) which is why he likes Tua.

I then point out to him that it was projected that Herbert would be a first round pick if he came out the year before which he obviously didn't know because he didn't mention Herbert in with the other QB's as having "buzz a full year before they're draft eligible" which Herbert clearly did.

Edge mentions that Herbert will go no further than #6 to the Chargers.

I mean it's pretty obvious that even within the Dolphins forums that it was not clear who the pick should be Herbert or Tua. I realize that's different from the question Burrow or Herbert, but, I don't think my thoughts on the subject at that time were that much different than most here. Burrow was considered the top pick and then who the next best was up for debate a bit. I thought Herbert was clearly the next best pick and pretty much equal to Burrow while most had Tua and Herbert as equals as the next best QB.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2021, 10:39:20 pm by Pappy13 » Logged

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Spider-Dan
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« Reply #53 on: September 23, 2021, 03:51:15 am »

Simms had Herbert ranked second to Burrow and in that video he claims that Herbert had the biggest upside, even higher than Burrow, so no it's NOT true that EVERYONE thought that Burrow was OBVIOUSLY the best QB in the draft.
Name one single professional analyst that advocated for drafting Herbert #1 over Burrow.
You can't.

Literally every analyst said Burrow was better.  You thought they were "even."
Your opinion of Herbert was higher than everyone else.

Quote
Not EVERYONE thought that in fact a guy that does QB analysis for a living thought Burrow and Herbert were very close, he did have Burrow ranked higher, but not by much.
So Simms had Burrow rated BETTER than Herbert, whereas you had them EVEN.

Quote
That's pretty much exactly in line with what I thought.
That's not what you said earlier today, when you claimed you had them "ranked even."  So which was it?  Did you have them ranked even, or did you have Burrow ranked over Herbert?
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Spider-Dan
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« Reply #54 on: September 23, 2021, 04:16:06 am »

Let me just point out something else, here:

It is a completely reasonable take to say that Herbert should have been drafted #5 over Tua.  I have no qualms with that statement; there were significant questions as to whether Tua could fully recover from his hip injury, to say nothing of whether he would face other injuries in the future.  But if you don't believe Tua can stay healthy, you shouldn't take him at #5.... or #6, or #18, or #30, or #39, or #56.  You shouldn't take ANY player that you do not believe can stay on the field.

However, if your opinion was that Tua was not talented enough to be worth taking over Herbert...?  Well, that opinion was not shared by most experts.  The reason why that Chris Simms video was notable is precisely because it was a contrarian take; the vast majority of experts had Tua has the more talented prospect.  ESPN had Burrow rated as a 94 (#2 overall), Tua rated as a 93 (#7 overall), and Herbert rated as an 89... the 24th-best prospect in the draft.

Now, you can make the point that ESPN didn't even have Patrick Mahomes rated in the top 32 of the 2017 NFL Draft.  And if you were a person standing around in spring of 2017 screaming that Patrick Mahomes was the best player in the draft, then you should feel some level of validation right now.  But at the time of the 2020 draft, Herbert over Tua on talent was an extreme outlier among expert opinion, and Herbert even with Burrow on talent was total insanity.
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Pappy13
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« Reply #55 on: September 23, 2021, 08:15:58 am »

Name one single professional analyst that advocated for drafting Herbert #1 over Burrow.
You can't.

Literally every analyst said Burrow was better.  You thought they were "even."
Your opinion of Herbert was higher than everyone else.
So Simms had Burrow rated BETTER than Herbert, whereas you had them EVEN.
And you said "then your perception of Herbert was so far out-of-step with the rest of the football world that it's not actionable" which I don't agree with. That's my point. My perception was not that much different from all those that had them very close. Even I didn't advocate taking Herbert over Burrow, only taking Herbert over Tua.

the vast majority of experts had Tua has the more talented prospect.  ESPN had Burrow rated as a 94 (#2 overall), Tua rated as a 93 (#7 overall), and Herbert rated as an 89... the 24th-best prospect in the draft.
Yet you already said that me saying that I would take Herbert over Tua was not that hard to imagine but Tua being rated 1 point below Burrow then puts the opinion that Herbert is on par with Burrow unactionable. Huh? What number they are overall really doesn't play into the discussion because I was not comparing Herbert to the rest of the draft, I was comparing him to the other QB's in the draft.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2021, 01:29:28 pm by Pappy13 » Logged

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Spider-Dan
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« Reply #56 on: September 23, 2021, 02:55:36 pm »

And you said "then your perception of Herbert was so far out-of-step with the rest of the football world that it's not actionable" which I don't agree with. That's my point. My perception was not that much different from all those that had them very close.
"All those" is apparently Chris Simms, which he lays out in a video that his employer chose to title "Simms defends Tua, Herbert QB draft rankings."
I think this take speaks for itself.

Note that even your handpicked example did not have Burrow and Herbert "ranked even" as you did.  I repeat: your perception of Herbert was so far out-of-step with the rest of the football world that it was not actionable.

Quote
Yet you already said that me saying that I would take Burrow over Tua was not that hard to imagine but Tua being rated 1 point below Burrow then puts the opinion that Herbert is on par with Burrow unactionable. Huh?
I'm shocked that I have to explain this to you, but here we go:

If Tua did not get injured, there would have been a significant debate over whether Tua or Burrow should go #1.

It seems like you have completely memory-holed the entire "Tank for Tua" period of history.  Prior to his injury, Tua was getting the same kind of hype as Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence.  How can you have missed this?

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What number they are overall really doesn't play into the discussion because I was not comparing Herbert to the rest of the draft, I was comparing him to the other QB's in the draft.
Jordan Love was rated a 90.
I guess it's a good thing we don't have a Jordan Love fan on the board insisting that we should have taken him at #5!
« Last Edit: September 23, 2021, 02:57:22 pm by Spider-Dan » Logged

Pappy13
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« Reply #57 on: September 23, 2021, 04:26:23 pm »

"All those" is apparently Chris Simms, which he lays out in a video that his employer chose to title "Simms defends Tua, Herbert QB draft rankings."
I think this take speaks for itself.
And I think the play of Herbert speaks for itself. Simms called it, I agreed with it and you can't deal with it.
 
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Tenshot13
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« Reply #58 on: September 23, 2021, 04:42:17 pm »

Herbert has been pretty bad this year.  2 TDs and 3 INTs over two games.  Tua has 2TDs and 1INT over one game.  Yikes, Herbert might be a one year wonder.
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Pappy13
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« Reply #59 on: September 23, 2021, 05:19:41 pm »

Herbert has been pretty bad this year.  2 TDs and 3 INTs over two games.  Tua has 2TDs and 1INT over one game.  Yikes, Herbert might be a one year wonder.
He has made some pretty bone headed plays this year. Maybe gotten a little over confident although 1 of those INT's that was not the case, his receiver just fell down. The one play that I thought was really bad for him was where he lost 20 yards and was called in the grasp on a 2nd and goal line play. He had plenty of time to throw it away and just held onto it way too long. Really bad play and may have cost them the game because if they score a TD there they take the lead rather than tie the game. Cowboys drove on the next series for the game winning FG as time expired. That was one of those plays if it's not there you just throw it away and live to fight another down.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2021, 05:33:51 pm by Pappy13 » Logged

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