MIA's 2022 1st round draft pick and the PHI trade

[DenverFinFan]

Nah, but the fact remains that was still a terrible haul to move back and he got way too cute with his trades. Bad trade the day it happened and it looks worse and worse as time goes by and I like Waddle, not really about him, just the weak haul.

We could have got Waddle with that pick, why did we do it?

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Marino was a first round pick.  Look where that got us.  Brady was a sixth rounder.  Enough said

Not sure if I would use Marino as an example of a blown 1st round pick. 

[Dolphster]

Not sure if I would use Marino as an example of a blown 1st round pick. 

Consider the source of the statement though. 

[Spider-Dan]

Not sure if I would use Marino as an example of a blown 1st round pick. 

It's intentional trolling and not worth addressing as an example.

[Spider-Dan]

Best outcome:
- MIA finishes with a pick later than 12th AND SF finishes with a pick in the top 10

Great outcome:
- MIA finishes with a pick later than 12th AND SF finishes with a pick earlier than MIA's

Good outcome:
- SF finishes with any pick earlier than MIA's
- MIA finishes with a pick later than 12th AND SF finishes with a pick earlier than 20th

Mediocre outcome:
- MIA finishes with a pick between 6th-12th

Bad outcome:
- MIA finishes with a pick in the top 5

Nightmare outcome:
- MIA finishes with a pick in the top 5 and SF finishes with a pick later than 20th

Update:
MIA cannot have any pick earlier than 5th, and several teams would have to run the table for even that to happen.  So it looks like the worst scenarios have been avoided.

Conversely, it would take a complete collapse for SF to finish with a pick in the top 10, so that looks like it's not likely to happen.  MIA is only 1 game behind SF in record, but 10 wins will definitely make the playoffs in the NFC, while that same record would be a tossup to make the AFC side of the tournament.  So even if MIA finishes with the same record as SF, SF would be likely to have a later pick.

That all being said, this looks to be an extremely weak draft at the top end, so the prospect of giving PHI an early pick (or getting a late pick from SF) is not the same terrifying threat it was earlier in the season.

[Spider-Dan]

Update:

Both MIA and SF can no longer have any pick earlier than 9th.

Given Waddle's performance this year and the weak prospects of the 2022 draft class, I'm confident saying that MIA won the trade with PHI (at least, to the extent that you can win a trade after 1 year).

[ArtieChokePhin]

Update:

Both MIA and SF can no longer have any pick earlier than 9th.

Given Waddle's performance this year and the weak prospects of the 2022 draft class, I'm confident saying that MIA won the trade with PHI (at least, to the extent that you can win a trade after 1 year).

At this point, I see them both in the mid to high teens if not early 20s (the difference between playoffs and no playoffs).  So it turned out to be a pretty even trade after all with San Fran getting the slightly better end. 

We'll be rooting for Philly to fail next year.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Update:

Both MIA and SF can no longer have any pick earlier than 9th.

Given Waddle's performance this year and the weak prospects of the 2022 draft class, I'm confident saying that MIA won the trade with PHI (at least, to the extent that you can win a trade after 1 year).

I still say we lost unless the Niners somehow die in 2023 and we get a Top 10 pick because at the end of the day, we went back 3 spots and got a worse pick in 2022 and an extra 1st rounde rin 2023 that will probably be in the 20's as well. That is not a good haul for moving back from 3 to 6. Waddle is awesome, nothing against him but I expected more to move down in a loaded Top 10 class.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Rams with a huge 3 score chokejob and lose to the Niners and now they are in the playoffs. I'm not sure yet but that looks to have cost us at least 8 draft spots and it can be worse depending on how far they go.

At one point the Rams had a 99.9% win probability. They're not going to recover from this one, bet on whoever their 1st round opponent is.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Cowboys with their usual chokejob and it's looking like the Niners will make it to the next round, making this trade look unfathomably terrible at this point. Picking 25th at the earliest if the Niners hold on.

Prescott just threw a pick in his own zone so I'm calling it now. Niners win, we are picking 25th at the earliest.

[Spider-Dan]

Cowboys with their usual chokejob and it's looking like the Niners will make it to the next round, making this trade look unfathomably terrible at this point.

I think the only way you can see this as a terrible trade at this point (given that MIA's pick to PHI is #15) is if you believe Waddle was a bad pick.  On its own, exchanging MIA's 2022 first for SF's 2022+2023 firsts is a good deal, almost without question.

For example:  suppose KC makes the SB again and loses, while SF's pick ends up at #25.  If KC's GM calls up Grier and offers him #31 in 2022 plus KC's first in 2023 (likely to be in the late 20s or worse) in exchange for SF's #25 pick in 2022, should Grier take that trade?  I'd take it in a heartbeat.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I think the only way you can see this as a terrible trade at this point (given that MIA's pick to PHI is #15) is if you believe Waddle was a bad pick.  On its own, exchanging MIA's 2022 first for SF's 2022+2023 firsts is a good deal, almost without question.

For example:  suppose KC makes the SB again and loses, while SF's pick ends up at #25.  If KC's GM calls up Grier and offers him #31 in 2022 plus KC's first in 2023 (likely to be in the late 20s or worse) in exchange for SF's #25 pick in 2022, should Grier take that trade?  I'd take it in a heartbeat.

At the end of the day, we went from the 3rd pick and our choice of whoever we wanted to the 6th pick and what we got in return was:

-Worsening our 1st rounder in 2022 from 15 to at least 25
-Getting the Niners 1st rounder in 2023 which could also be in the 20's again

Take the Niners 2023 1st rounder probably in the 20s and move it back all the spots we lost this year and we basically went from the 3rd pick to the 6th pick for a 2nd rounder 2 years in the future. That is a HORRIBLE haul for moving down from 3 to 6. People get fired over that in professionally run organizations. I like Waddle, we all do but we had all the cards and traded away our ability to choose for basically a 2nd rounder 2 years in the future. Absolute trash.

[Tenshot13]

At the end of the day, we went from the 3rd pick and our choice of whoever we wanted to the 6th pick and what we got in return was:

-Worsening our 1st rounder in 2022 from 15 to at least 25
-Getting the Niners 1st rounder in 2023 which could also be in the 20's again

Take the Niners 2023 1st rounder probably in the 20s and move it back all the spots we lost this year and we basically went from the 3rd pick to the 6th pick for a 2nd rounder 2 years in the future. That is a HORRIBLE haul for moving down from 3 to 6. People get fired over that in professionally run organizations. I like Waddle, we all do but we had all the cards and traded away our ability to choose for basically a 2nd rounder 2 years in the future. Absolute trash.

I agree with Spider and disagree with you.  You're playing some mental gymnastics.  It's not a 2nd rounder 2 years in the future, it's a 1st rounder, don't downplay it.  At worst it's a wash trade if you aren't thinking short term.  I personally think it was a good trade.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I agree with Spider and disagree with you.  You're playing some mental gymnastics.  It's not a 2nd rounder 2 years in the future, it's a 1st rounder, don't downplay it.  At worst it's a wash trade if you aren't thinking short term.  I personally think it was a good trade.

The location of the 1st rounder matters greatly. Would you rather pick in the Top 10 or in the late 20s? If you want to take it all at face value and not analyze anything, then we moved back from 3rd to 6th and all we got was a 1st rounder 2 years in the future. That's still a bad trade without taking into account everything else.

[Pappy13]

The location of the 1st rounder matters greatly. Would you rather pick in the Top 10 or in the late 20s? If you want to take it all at face value and not analyze anything, then we moved back from 3rd to 6th and all we got was a 1st rounder 2 years in the future. That's still a bad trade without taking into account everything else.

Getting a first rounder even 2 years removed to move back 3 spots seems like a great trade to me but I don't spend the time worrying about that you do.