MIA's 2022 1st round draft pick and the PHI trade

[EDGECRUSHER]

Getting a first rounder even 2 years removed to move back 3 spots seems like a great trade to me but I don't spend the time worrying about that you do.

From 20th to 23rd? Great trade. From 3rd to 6th and having to draft a lesser player? No. Like I said, that's without analysis which can't be ignored. We are getting a worst draft pick this year, you have to factor that in. Our pick from the Niners next year will probably be in the 20s again, you can't ignore these things. We made a bad trade, that's all there is to it. You have to pick:

1) Jamarr Chase and a better 2022 1st rounder

OR

2) Jaylen Waddle, a worse 1st rounder in 2022 and an extra pick in the 20s in 2023

I would rather have Option 1 and I think many other people would too. The formula changes if the Niners win 3 games next year.

[Spider-Dan]

From 20th to 23rd? Great trade. From 3rd to 6th and having to draft a lesser player? No.

Again, this is what your comparison really hinges on... not whether the SF pick is 18th or 28th.

Do you believe Waddle is a lesser player?

If the answer is no, this line of argument is kind of silly; you hit on your pick with the player you really wanted, and got an extra first out of it.
If the answer is yes, then this gets more complicated... not least because Pitts, not Chase, was taken by the pick after #3.

This entire line of reasoning only works if you presume that Chase would have done as well in MIA as he did in CIN... so let's make sure that sword cuts both ways.  Are you as confident in this a first-round pick that might be in the 20s isn't worth much take if MIA takes Pitts at #3, Chase wins OROY in Atlanta, and Waddle sets the rookie receptions record in Cincinnati?

[masterfins]

With the windfall of top picks Miami received out of the Laremy Tunsil trade they should not be complaining about trade picks for a few seasons.  Furthermore if Miami was locked in on Waddle no matter what then it's still a fantastic trade no matter what kind of performance Chase, Waddle, or Pitts had this season.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Again, this is what your comparison really hinges on... not whether the SF pick is 18th or 28th.

Do you believe Waddle is a lesser player?

If the answer is no, this line of argument is kind of silly; you hit on your pick with the player you really wanted, and got an extra first out of it.
If the answer is yes, then this gets more complicated... not least because Pitts, not Chase, was taken by the pick after #3.

This entire line of reasoning only works if you presume that Chase would have done as well in MIA as he did in CIN... so let's make sure that sword cuts both ways.  Are you as confident in this a first-round pick that might be in the 20s isn't worth much take if MIA takes Pitts at #3, Chase wins OROY in Atlanta, and Waddle sets the rookie receptions record in Cincinnati?

I don't think there is any doubt that Chase is a superior player. Granted, Burrow is a superior QB to Tua right now(and hopefully not forever), but Chase is the better player and we took the lesser player. So, the argument comes down to how much lesser is Waddle than Chase in terms of draft capital. I don't think what we got is worth it even if Waddle has a good career. I think we could've gotten more but Grier traded too far back and had to use too much of it to get back into good position.

We obviously disagree on the things like our current draft pick being lower and what that means, but at the end of the day we got a 2023 1st rounder to move back and unless that lands in the Top 10, I don't think that was worth it.

[EDGECRUSHER]

With the windfall of top picks Miami received out of the Laremy Tunsil trade they should not be complaining about trade picks for a few seasons.  Furthermore if Miami was locked in on Waddle no matter what then it's still a fantastic trade no matter what kind of performance Chase, Waddle, or Pitts had this season.

If we were locked in on Waddle over Chase and Pitts, then I hope Flores was in charge of that so we know we did the right thing by firing him. Waddle is great but he is no Chase and maybe not even Pitts. I think that was just some PR by us to justify the trades we made.

[Spider-Dan]

I don't think there is any doubt that Chase is a superior player. Granted, Burrow is a superior QB to Tua right now(and hopefully not forever), but Chase is the better player and we took the lesser player.

You're saying this as if Pitts wasn't drafted before Chase.

In other words, if MIA stays at #3 but a) picks Waddle anyway or b) picks the player that was drafted before Chase (Pitts), you're still unhappy.  And if MIA picks Pitts, and Chase and Waddle go on to have great seasons, plus MIA has no extra first-round pick next year?  Well, if you think you're unhappy now...

If your point boils down to "Why didn't MIA identify who would be the best player out of Pitts, Chase, Waddle, and Smith, and then pick only that guy?"... I mean, you can apply that logic to every pick.  The Dolphins' front office was able to identify a really good player out of those four, and hedge their bet by trading down to acquire more picks.

The only thing that matters here is whether you think Waddle was a failed pick.  If you don't, then MIA made the right move.  You don't know in advance how the players will turn out.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I think it's fairly obvious who the better player was, Waddle was a distant 3rd amongst the "Big 3".

I think it really comes down to me not liking our compensation for moving back from 3 to 6. I feel that a 1st rounder 2 years in the future is bad compensation, especially when it involves not getting the best receiver in the draft because of it. I don't like that trade off. If we still got our top guy then it changes things some. Still like Waddle a lot, we probably win 4 games without him but I don't believe for one second we felt that he was the top receiver on the board. That's just PR spin from management.

[pondwater]

I think it's fairly obvious who the better player was, Waddle was a distant 3rd amongst the "Big 3".

I think it really comes down to me not liking our compensation for moving back from 3 to 6. I feel that a 1st rounder 2 years in the future is bad compensation, especially when it involves not getting the best receiver in the draft because of it. I don't like that trade off. If we still got our top guy then it changes things some. Still like Waddle a lot, we probably win 4 games without him but I don't believe for one second we felt that he was the top receiver on the board. That's just PR spin from management.

Who is the "Big 3"? If you're talking about Pitts, Waddle had a better year than Pitts.

[Spider-Dan]

Who is the "Big 3"? If you're talking about Pitts, Waddle had a better year than Pitts.

Exactly.

If MIA has stayed put and the draft had gone #3 Pitts to MIA, #4 Chase to ATL, #5 Waddle to CIN, and all those players had exactly the same year with their new teams, we'd be screaming that the Dolphins went before the other two and still somehow picked the worst player of the three.

[Dolfanalyst]

The big mistake the Dolphins made was in winning five games in 2019 and not getting Joe Burrow.  If you're tanking, then tank completely and get the best player possible.  Those five games are now meaningless while Burrow's trajectory is that of one of the top QBs in the game.

[Tenshot13]

PITTS:
               Games      Receiving                                 Rushing                        Total Yds               
Year   Age   Tm   Pos   No.   G   GS   Tgt   Rec   Yds   Y/R   TD   1D   Lng   R/G   Y/G   Ctch%   Y/Tgt   Rush   Yds   TD   1D   Lng   Y/A   Y/G   A/G   Touch   Y/Tch   YScm   RRTD   Fmb   AV
2021*   21   ATL   TE   8   17   15   110   68   1026   15.1   1   43   61   4   60.4   61.80%   9.3                           68   15.1   1026   1   0   8


CHASE:
               Games      Receiving                                 Rushing                        Total Yds               
Year   Age   Tm   Pos   No.   G   GS   Tgt   Rec   Yds   Y/R   TD   1D   Lng   R/G   Y/G   Ctch%   Y/Tgt   Rush   Yds   TD   1D   Lng   Y/A   Y/G   A/G   Touch   Y/Tch   YScm   RRTD   Fmb   AV
2021*   21   CIN   WR   1   17   17   128   81   1455   18   13   56   82   4.8   85.6   63.30%   11.4   7   21   0   2   10   3   1.2   0.4   88   16.8   1476   13   2   13

WADDLE:
               Games      Receiving                                 Rushing                        Total Yds               
Year   Age   Tm   Pos   No.   G   GS   Tgt   Rec   Yds   Y/R   TD   1D   Lng   R/G   Y/G   Ctch%   Y/Tgt   Rush   Yds   TD   1D   Lng   Y/A   Y/G   A/G   Touch   Y/Tch   YScm   RRTD   Fmb   AV
2021   23   MIA   WR   17   16   16   140   104   1015   9.8   6   59   57   6.5   63.4   74.30%   7.3   2   3   1   1   2   1.5   0.2   0.1   106   9.6   1018   7   2   7



There is no doubt Chase had the best year, but you shouldn't even be suggesting Pitts had a better year than Waddle.  Pitts had exactly 1 Touchdown all year, Waddle had 8.  Pitts had 68 Receptions, Waddle broke the rookie record with 104.  Waddle beats both of them by a large margin in catch %.  Plus Waddle is open almost every play, I don't understand how anyone is upset that we drafted him and got an extra first round pick out of it.  

[Dolfanalyst]

Chase is shaping up to be the kind of go-to player that boosts considerably his QB's performance and largely fuels the pass offense, a la Deandre Hopkins.  Note how Kyler Murray and the Cardinals' offense perform with and without Hopkins:

https://twitter.com/GrahamBarfield/status/1481012195760607232?s=20

It may change in the future, but right now Waddle doesn't perform in that manner.  He was certainly the Dolphins' go-to guy in 2021, but he posed nowhere near the threat Chase did, and contributed to the pass offense at nowhere near the same level.  Consider simply that Chase's yards per target in 2021 was 4+ yards greater than Waddle's.  An astronomical number.

Of course the argument can be made that the Dolphins' offensive line prevented Waddle from being the downfield threat he can be, which restricted him to a "smaller" game than he's capable of, but that has yet to be determined definitively.  It's entirely possible the Dolphins' offensive line could be the best in the league and Waddle would perform in a similar manner.  We don't know whether that's the case, whereas with Chase we do know.

[DenverFinFan]

The big mistake the Dolphins made was in winning five games in 2019 and not getting Joe Burrow.  If you're tanking, then tank completely and get the best player possible.  Those five games are now meaningless while Burrow's trajectory is that of one of the top QBs in the game.

Oh yes. Same in 2011 when we were 0-7 and finished 6-10 and missed out on Luck.

Damn Matt Moore and Damn Ryan Fitzpatrick

[EDGECRUSHER]

The big mistake the Dolphins made was in winning five games in 2019 and not getting Joe Burrow.  If you're tanking, then tank completely and get the best player possible.  Those five games are now meaningless while Burrow's trajectory is that of one of the top QBs in the game.

This is true but you can't say we didn't try. We basically shipped off any player who even knew how to spell football. However, doesn't change the fact that what is now obviously "useless winning" cost this franchise a lot.

[Tenshot13]

It is dumb as hell to blame a team for not tanking for a player.  GM, sure he can do what he can to tank the team for a long term future, it's his job to find the best players or stock up for the future, which is what Grier did.  If a head coach or players are tanking, they deserve to be fired immediately.