Playoff thread

[dolphins4life]

LV 6-7

Cle  Den  Indy  LA

CLE 7-6

LV  GB  PIT  CIN

DEN 7-7

LV LA  KC

LA 8-6

Hou  Den  LV

Now to figure out who to root for tonight.

I can't figure it out.

Can anybody else?

[Pappy13]

LV 6-7
DEN 7-7

None of these teams games really matter that much because if we win out (which is the ONLY way we are getting into the playoffs) unless these teams do as well, we will finish higher in the standings. All you really need to root for is them to lose at least 1 game. Doesn't matter which one.

CLE 7-6

This team could finish tied with Miami even if they lose a game, but if Buffalo beats New England next week and we beat New England in week 18 we have a better chance of making the playoffs than New England does at 10-7, so if you want to root for a game, root for Buffalo to beat New England next week. That will help Miami's chances considerably more than worrying about what Cleveland does.

The thing is in ALL of these scenario's the MOST likely thing NOT to happen is Miami winning out, so rooting against these other teams to lose really doesn't much matter. If Miami wins out they'll have a pretty good shot of making the playoffs, if they don't they have zero chance.

[masterfins]

There could conceivably be a three way tie in the AFC East at 10-7, but Buffalo would win out over Miami.  Miami really needs Buffalo to beat the Patriots this week and lose to the Jets the last week of the season, which is unlikely but you never know.

[Tenshot13]

Climbing up the board, we've passed the Broncos and Browns.  

If the Bills beat the Patriots, we pretty much control our own destiny at that point.  I saw we have a 99% chance of making the playoffs if we win out and the Bills win vs the Pats.

[Pappy13]

Climbing up the board, we've passed the Broncos and Browns.  

If the Bills beat the Patriots, we pretty much control our own destiny at that point.  I saw we have a 99% chance of making the playoffs if we win out and the Bills win vs the Pats.

The problem is if the Bills don't beat the Pats, we are most likely out of the playoffs even if we win out because we'll need 2 losses by either the Bills, Chargers or Colts or 3 losses by the Titans and none of those scenario's seem likely with the schedules for those teams...

Bills are @Pats, Falcons and Jets.
Chargers are @Texans, Broncos and @Raiders.
Colts are @Cards, Raiders and @Jax.
Titans have 49'ers, Dolphins and @Texans

This whole talk that we have a good chance to make the playoffs if we win out is just a lot of hot air unless the Bills win in New England next week and at best that's a 50/50 proposal in my humble opinion. Our odds to make the playoffs even if we win out is around 50% and really just comes down to that one game or we get lucky somewhere else like the Raiders (lost 5 of last 7) or Falcons (lost 4 of last 6) suddenly becoming good teams.

[Pappy13]

I just read that the Bills Cole Beasley just tested positive for Covid-19 and he's not vaccinated which means he's out for 10 days. If true the Bills chances of beating New England just took a nosedive as Beasley has been one of the Bills best offensive players this year. The Patriots already held Beasley to 1 catch in the previous game and won, if he's not on the field they don't even have to worry about him which allows them to focus on someone else to take away from the Bills offense.

Bill's Cole Beasley Tests Positive for Covid-19

[dolphins4life]

It's a very long shot to make the playoffs, but after starting the season 1-7, it is nice to be talking about chance to make the playoffs.

We will be able to discuss them after next week, too.  The earliest Miami can be eliminated is week 17.

[dolphins4life]

Pappy, have you done all the simulations?

[dolphins4life]

What we want:

SF over Tenn
GB over Cle
Az over Ind
Hou over LA
Buf over NE
KC over Pit
Den over LV

[Pappy13]

Pappy, have you done all the simulations?

I haven't done any simulations, I'm basing what I'm saying off ESPN's Playoff machine (link below). Assuming it's accurate, just use reason to predict outcomes of games and it's very easy to see if Miami makes the playoffs or not. You can even predict ties if you want. There are very few realistic ways to get Miami into the playoffs at this point and almost all of them include them winning out which itself isn't that realistic AND Buffalo winning this week against New England and those chances just took a big hit with Beasley unable to play.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

[dolphins4life]

The problem is if the Bills don't beat the Pats, we are most likely out of the playoffs even if we win out because we'll need 2 losses by either the Bills, Chargers or Colts or 3 losses by the Titans and none of those scenario's seem likely with the schedules for those teams...

Bills are @Pats, Falcons and Jets.
Chargers are @Texans, Broncos and @Raiders.
Colts are @Cards, Raiders and @Jax.
Titans have 49'ers, Dolphins and @Texans

This whole talk that we have a good chance to make the playoffs if we win out is just a lot of hot air unless the Bills win in New England next week and at best that's a 50/50 proposal in my humble opinion. Our odds to make the playoffs even if we win out is around 50% and really just comes down to that one game or we get lucky somewhere else like the Raiders (lost 5 of last 7) or Falcons (lost 4 of last 6) suddenly becoming good teams.

If Miami wins out and the chargers loses one more game, they both finish 10-7 with a 7-5 conference record.  The next tiebreaker is common games.  Do the chargers have that?   Also, if Denver and the chargers tied with Miami, the division tiebreaker would eliminate one of them and one left would go against Miami

[dolphins4life]

The other thing is, if Miami ties the bills, they are virtually eliminated because in any multi-team tiebreaker they are automatically eliminated

[dolphins4life]

Playoff status says they cannot be eliminated this weekend, but I think they can be

[Spider-Dan]

NE clinches the division with a win against BUF. edit: Not true!  If NE and MIA finish 10-7 and BUF finishes with 8 or more losses, MIA wins the division.

As of right now, MIA can still make the playoffs with 8 losses, but it would require BUF or NE to lose out.  So no, MIA cannot be eliminated this week.

[Spider-Dan]

In fact, looking at the playoff machine, it's pretty simple.  If:

1) MIA loses @NO, wins @TEN, wins vs. NE
2) BUF or NE lose out
3) no other team loses to an opponent with a worse record
4) no game ends in a tie

MIA will be the 7th seed at 9-8.