Playoff thread

[Tenshot13]

What does it tell you however that they would be significant underdogs against those teams tomorrow, even at home?

It would tell me they're being judged from a 7 game losing streak, which wouldn't have been 7 games if Tua was playing, and being last in the hunt for a playoff spot

[Dolfanalyst]

It would tell me they're being judged from a 7 game losing streak, which wouldn't have been 7 games if Tua was playing, and being last in the hunt for a playoff spot

I would like to think that as well, but Vegas isn't doing that poor a job of handicapping teams.  There is too much at stake.

[Pappy13]

Unless the Dolphins go 10-7 their chances are REALLY low and even at 10-7 the odds aren't with us...so the only real question is will the Dolphins go 10-7? I doubt it. I have no doubt they can win 2 maybe 3 of the remaining games but all 4? Really unlikely in my opinion and I'm not just saying that because we play Buffalo in week 18. There's a good chance that we win that game at home in my opinion but there's also a good chance that we lose one of the other remaining 3 games. Don't write off any of those teams. The Jets are playing spoiler and they would like nothing more than to spoil Miami's comeback bid for a playoff shot. The Saints have not been playing well, but they can turn it around at anypoint. Tennessee and Buffalo are 2 tough opponents that will be looking to ensure their own playoff spot. All in all I think it's very likely the Dolphins lose at least 1 of the last 4 games if not more. The win streak has been nice, but it's about to end.

[Tenshot13]

Unless the Dolphins go 10-7 their chances are REALLY low and even at 10-7 the odds aren't with us...so the only real question is will the Dolphins go 10-7? I doubt it. I have no doubt they can win 2 maybe 3 of the remaining games but all 4? Really unlikely in my opinion and I'm not just saying that because we play Buffalo in week 18. There's a good chance that we win that game at home in my opinion but there's also a good chance that we lose one of the other remaining 3 games. Don't write off any of those teams. The Jets are playing spoiler and they would like nothing more than to spoil Miami's comeback bid for a playoff shot. The Saints have not been playing well, but they can turn it around at anypoint. Tennessee and Buffalo are 2 tough opponents that will be looking to ensure their own playoff spot. All in all I think it's very likely the Dolphins lose at least 1 of the last 4 games if not more. The win streak has been nice, but it's about to end.

Have you been reading this thread?  The odds are with us at 10-7, 88-89% chance to make the playoffs.  Also, we play the Patriots week 18, not Buffalo, they already swept us.  

Bye, Jets, Saints, Titans (with no Henry), Patriots.  All very winnable games with the Patriots being the toughest.  It'll probably come down to that game.

[Pappy13]

Have you been reading this thread?  The odds are with us at 10-7, 88-89% chance to make the playoffs.  Also, we play the Patriots week 18, not Buffalo, they already swept us.  

Bye, Jets, Saints, Titans (with no Henry), Patriots.  All very winnable games with the Patriots being the toughest.  It'll probably come down to that game.

My bad about the last week, you're right it's the Patriots not the Bills, but no way I believe that that Dolphins have a 90% chance to make the playoffs at 10-7. Who's saying that? Based on what? Even at 10-7 we will most likely be tied with several other teams and I can't imagine that all the tie-breakers fall our way. Surely it could, but it's not likely in my opinion. Maybe the odds are 50-50 if we finish 10-7.

Just looking at the NFL playoff machine if the team with the better record wins all the remaining games except for Miami who goes 4-0 Miami still doesn't make the playoffs. They would be tied with Buffalo and Cincinati at 10-7 and lose the tie breaker and not make the playoffs. Don't know how anyone is saying if they go 4-0 their chances are 88% to make the playoffs.

[EDGECRUSHER]

My bad about the last week, you're right it's the Patriots not the Bills, but no way I believe that that Dolphins have a 90% chance to make the playoffs at 10-7. Who's saying that? Based on what? Even at 10-7 we will most likely be tied with several other teams and I can't imagine that all the tie-breakers fall our way. Surely it could, but it's not likely in my opinion. Maybe the odds are 50-50 if we finish 10-7.

If we win out, our conference record is 7-5. I don't know tiebreakers beyond that. The AFC West plays each other a lot to end the year so they might eliminated each other a bit, makes it very hard to root for anyone right now aside from whoever plays Buffalo.

[stinkfish]

I just think it's too little too late. They needed this fire under their asses two months ago. At least San Fran is playing badly.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I just think it's too little too late. They needed this fire under their asses two months ago. At least San Fran is playing badly.

Yeah, probably is. I mean, we can beat the Jets and Saints and perhaps the Titans but the Pats in Foxboro when they will likely be playing for the #1 seed, division or playoff berth themselves? That's a pretty daunting task. At least we have time to heal up during the bye week so Will Fuller will only miss 4 games instead of 5.

[Tenshot13]

My bad about the last week, you're right it's the Patriots not the Bills, but no way I believe that that Dolphins have a 90% chance to make the playoffs at 10-7. Who's saying that? Based on what? Even at 10-7 we will most likely be tied with several other teams and I can't imagine that all the tie-breakers fall our way. Surely it could, but it's not likely in my opinion. Maybe the odds are 50-50 if we finish 10-7.

Just looking at the NFL playoff machine if the team with the better record wins all the remaining games except for Miami who goes 4-0 Miami still doesn't make the playoffs. They would be tied with Buffalo and Cincinati at 10-7 and lose the tie breaker and not make the playoffs. Don't know how anyone is saying if they go 4-0 their chances are 88% to make the playoffs.

Also in the thread, scroll up.  NYT has a playoff scenario generator.

[Pappy13]

Also in the thread, scroll up.  NYT has a playoff scenario generator.

I can't read the article.  There's no way the Dolphins have a 90% chance to make the playoffs even if they finish 10-7. As I said if the teams with the better record win their remaining games then even if the Dolphins finish 10-7 they won't make the playoffs (see below). How does that even remotely translate to a nearly 90% chance? Either they did something wrong or they sure have a strange way of calculating chances when one of the most likely scenario's doesn't even get them into the playoffs. I'm not sure what the tie breaker is that prevents Miami from making the playoffs, but they don't.

1) Kansas City at 13-4
2) New England 12-5
3) Tennessee 12-5
4) Baltimore 12-5
5) Los Angeles 11-6
6) Cincy 10-7
7) Buffalo 10-7

And it's certainly not the ONLY scenario where they don't get in, there are plenty more for instance Indy can get in even with Miami finishing 10-7 if everything below is the same except Indy beats New England and then Buffalo and Miami are out on tie breakers. In that case it would be..

1) Kansas City at 13-4
2) Tennessee 12-5
3) Baltimore 12-5
4) New England 11-6
5) Los Angeles 11-6
6) Indy 10-7
7) Cincy 10-7

There's another scenario where the Raiders get hot and go 4-1 and make the playoffs and Miami is out, not that likely but still a chance. Same for Cleveland. Something's not right with that 88% chance.

[DenverFinFan]

Yeah, probably is. I mean, we can beat the Jets and Saints and perhaps the Titans but the Pats in Foxboro when they will likely be playing for the #1 seed, division or playoff berth themselves? That's a pretty daunting task. At least we have time to heal up during the bye week so Will Fuller will only miss 4 games instead of 5.

Last game is in Miami

[Tenshot13]

Okay well I provided a source that shows differently.  Unless you've got one that supports your stance, don't take offense when I say what you think doesn't really matter.

[Pappy13]

Okay well I provided a source that shows differently.  Unless you've got one that supports your stance, don't take offense when I say what you think doesn't really matter.

I'm using this and just playing around with the thing. You can come up with a bunch of different scenario's that are pretty easy to imagine where a 10-7 Miami team is not in the playoffs. Yes, there are some where they can make it in as well, but they are not the most likely scenario's so I fail to see how they could possibly be projected to be a near lock to make it in if they make it to 10-7.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

[DenverFinFan]

If we win out, our conference record is 7-5. I don't know tiebreakers beyond that. The AFC West plays each other a lot to end the year so they might eliminated each other a bit, makes it very hard to root for anyone right now aside from whoever plays Buffalo.

We want BUF winning AFCE

[Pappy13]

We want BUF winning AFCE

Depends on what happens tonight. If Buffalo loses tonight I think our best chance is for New England to win the AFCE to give Miami a shot at one of the Wild Cards and Buffalo to be out of the playoffs. That could happen as Buffalo has a tough schedule playing New England home and away @Tampa Bay, Carolina, Atlanta and the Jets. If they lose to Tampa, New England twice and Carolina they will finish 9-8. That might be more likely than the Patriots losing twice to Buffalo, Indy and the Dolphins to go 9-8. After tonight's game it gets a little clearer who the Dolphins want to win the AFCE. It is still possible for Miami to win the AFCE but Buffalo would need to lose a couple of games they should win and split with the Patriots.