Predictions: Dolphins at Saints

[stinkfish]

My spidey sense is tingling. Feels like it could be a trap. Too may reasons for the Dolphins to steamroll these guys easily for something not to go wrong.

[Tenshot13]

What do you know Miami won easily. 

[stinkfish]

What do you know Miami won easily. 

Just like I said they would. Why don't you pay attention?

[Dave Gray]

I am glad to be wrong about this, but I'm still concerned about our prospects.  I'm really worried that our offense isn't producing points.  I feel like a doomsdayer, but we scored.  That's just not enough against most teams on most weeks.

[Dolfanalyst]

I am glad to be wrong about this, but I'm still concerned about our prospects.  I'm really worried that our offense isn't producing points.  I feel like a doomsdayer, but we scored.  That's just not enough against most teams on most weeks.

The offense is definitely not good enough to beat Tennessee or New England playing the way it is now.  They're 30th in the league at 4.8 yards per play, with a mere 4.4 against New Orleans and 4.7 over the last three games.  The only way they win those games is if they capture some of 2020's magic (or luck) and have high defensive takeaway numbers in those games.  They need to give the offense more possessions and deprive the other team of them.  The defense essentially needs to win those games like they did some of the games last year.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I am glad to be wrong about this, but I'm still concerned about our prospects.  I'm really worried that our offense isn't producing points.  I feel like a doomsdayer, but we scored.  That's just not enough against most teams on most weeks.

Just have to take it a day at a time. Maybe Waddle breaks a tackle and goes 78 yards. Maybe we force 3 turnovers in their own zone. With only 2 games left, we are in "Any Given Sunday" territory.

[Dave Gray]

Just have to take it a day at a time. Maybe Waddle breaks a tackle and goes 78 yards. Maybe we force 3 turnovers in their own zone. With only 2 games left, we are in "Any Given Sunday" territory.

Yeah, you're right -- and I deserve to eat crow, so I'm here to do so.

I just feel like this is all fool's gold.

[CF DolFan]

I wouldn't worry about offense in a game where we win by 17 unless you gave up some stupid points in a bet prior to the game. The only way we see our best offensive effort is if we stay down 7 the whole game. Flores plays not to lose. No way he cares about winning by 4 TDs.

[Spider-Dan]

I am glad to be wrong about this, but I'm still concerned about our prospects.  I'm really worried that our offense isn't producing points.  I feel like a doomsdayer, but we scored.  That's just not enough against most teams on most weeks.

NO held Tom Brady to 0 points just last week.  They held Aaron Rodgers to 3 points in Week 1.  And while it's true that Demario Davis and Malcolm Jenkins were out, it's not like TEN is at full strength, either.

Every win in the current streak has been by at least a TD, and most have been by double digits.  MIA has been earning their wins.

[Dave Gray]

I wouldn't worry about offense in a game where we win by 17 unless you gave up some stupid points in a bet prior to the game. The only way we see our best offensive effort is if we stay down 7 the whole game. Flores plays not to lose. No way he cares about winning by 4 TDs.

I'm worried about offense, because we haven't been able to score all year and had a 7 game losing streak when the defense couldn't bail you out every single time.  I just don't think you can win long-term without some kind of offensive balance and production.

[Spider-Dan]

I'm worried about offense, because we haven't been able to score all year and had a 7 game losing streak when the defense couldn't bail you out every single time.  I just don't think you can win long-term without some kind of offensive balance and production.

During this streak, the defense has held opponents to an average of 11 points.
That average would have MIA beating every team they lost to except BUF.

[CF DolFan]

I'm worried about offense, because we haven't been able to score all year and had a 7 game losing streak when the defense couldn't bail you out every single time.  I just don't think you can win long-term without some kind of offensive balance and production.

We know we have issues .. IE no offensive line and running game. I'm just saying Monday wasn't our best offensive effort that we can pull with the crappy opine. Tua has been great in the 4th quarter and directly after he makes a boneheaded play. We can move the ball. It's just a matter of how bad we want to and against NO we didn't really need to.

[Dolfanalyst]

I'm worried about offense, because we haven't been able to score all year and had a 7 game losing streak when the defense couldn't bail you out every single time.  I just don't think you can win long-term without some kind of offensive balance and production.

They have a shot against Tennessee because Tennessee has achieved its record largely with smoke and mirrors, not with the strongest systematic predictors of winning.  Note that Vegas has Tennessee just a 3.5-point favorite, with three of those points representing home-field advantage.  That's pretty much a pick 'em, despite that Tennessee's record is two wins better and the Dolphins aren't winning either with the strongest systematic predictors of winning.  Vegas knows when teams do it with smoke and mirrors.  The home-field advantage is big, however, and will be a lot for this Dolphins' team to overcome when it isn't playing against an Ian Book.

They also have a shot against New England because Mac Jones is but a rookie and is prone to the downward variation we've seen him display over the past two games.  He can lay an egg in any game.  The Patriots will also be coming off what's likely a home win by a big margin against Jacksonville, which puts them at a situational disadvantage on the road the following week.  Home-field advantage will be big for the Dolphins in that one of they can beat Tennessee, because you can bet there will be a packed house for that one.

If they win these two games it'll be when they get to the playoffs and come up against the likes of the Chiefs or Buffalo, or even Cincinnati or the Chargers, that they get exposed.  They can't keep pace with those teams.  The passing game simply isn't there.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Yeah, you're right -- and I deserve to eat crow, so I'm here to do so.

I just feel like this is all fool's gold.

Oh, it is. I'm rooting for the playoffs just to get ove rthe hump, but I have no delusions about this team and our bad offense and coaching. I'm just keeping a positive front right now but that will go to shit the next game we lose and Flores isn't fired.

[Dave Gray]

During this streak, the defense has held opponents to an average of 11 points.
That average would have MIA beating every team they lost to except BUF.

Right, but our season includes the losses, too.  You can just take the games you play well as an indication of how good you are.  This same defense got some points laid on us a few times, too.

Points by week:  (counting points scored by the defense)
17
0
28
17
17
20
28
11
17
22
24
33
20
31
20


There is definitely some offensive improvement, and the games where Tua was out didn't help.  I just think that you gotta be able to score 35 once in a while and we don't seem capable.