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Author Topic: Tua Tagovailoa's Development  (Read 767 times)
Dolfanalyst
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« on: January 12, 2022, 07:12:54 pm »

So now that the year is over we can take a look at this.

Here's how Tua changed from 2020 to 2021 in terms of major measures of quarterback play.  These are league percentiles.  So for example with regard to EPA per play he was at the 45.6th percentile in the league in 2021, meaning that 54.4% of the league's QBs had higher EPA per play than he did in 2021.



EPA = nflfastR expected points added per play (efficiency)
CPOE = nflfastR completion % over expected (accuracy)
DVOA = F.O. defense-adjusted value over average (efficiency)
DYAR = F.O. defense-adjusted yards above replacement (gross production)
PFF = individual PFF offense grade
QBR = ESPN total QBR; measure of win probability added per play
Sack% = sack rate (sacks/total dropbacks)
AirYds = Air yards per attempt
CP = nflfastR completion probability based on situation & air yards
PFF Recv = team PFF receiving grade
PFF Pblk = team PFF pass block grade
PA/G = team points allowed per game
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Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2022, 09:22:30 am »

For the sake of comparison:

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Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2022, 09:55:11 am »

Other comparisons of note:





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Pappy13
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« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2022, 11:12:48 am »

Where is the one for Ryan Fitzpatrick and for Jacoby Brisset? It would be interesting to compare and contrast those 2 players in the same time frames as Tua.
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Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2022, 11:34:53 am »

Where is the one for Ryan Fitzpatrick and for Jacoby Brisset? It would be interesting to compare and contrast those 2 players in the same time frames as Tua.

As you requested sir!  There are no data for Brissett in 2021 because he didn't have the minimum 300 plays.

The level at which Fitzpatrick and the pass offense played in 2020 is seemingly lost on a lot of people who try to make meaning of why the team improved in 2020 and didn't similarly improve in 2021.  The pass offense in 2021 was quite a bit worse than it was in 2020, with Fitzpatrick.  There is no guarantee Fitzpatrick would've sustained that level of play through the season, as his history of play is certainly inconsistent with that, but that doesn't mean the team wasn't getting very good play out of its pass offense when he did play.



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Pappy13
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« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2022, 12:36:01 pm »

Interesting to say the least and before anyone points out the deficiencies of the offensive line, I would like to point out the PFF PBLK column. The offensive line that Fitz played behind in 2019 was at least as bad if not worse. It got slightly better in 2020 and worse again in 2021, so if the RPO was put in place BECAUSE of the problems that the offensive line was having, it didn't help.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2022, 12:42:12 pm by Pappy13 » Logged

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Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #6 on: January 21, 2022, 04:38:36 pm »

Dug a little more into this and found that PFF's season team receiving grades are even stronger predictors of team pass efficiency than their QB grades.

For the 2017 and 2018 seasons the standardized regression coefficients in predicting EPA per pass dropback are as follows:

84% of the variance in EPA per pass dropback explained, with all independent variables statistically significant.

PFF QB grade:  0.425
PFF OL pass blocking grade:  0.198
PFF team receiving grade:  0.560

So the league as a whole is more dependent on receiver play than it is on QB or OL play, in terms of pass efficiency.

When you confine the analysis to Tom Brady's career year-by-year exclusively (NE and TB), you get a roughly analogous finding:

69% of the variance in EPA per pass dropback explained, with all independent variables statistically significant.

PFF QB grade:  0.300
PFF OL pass blocking grade:  0.316
PFF team receiving grade:  0.630

So while Brady has been somewhat more dependent than the league at large on his offensive line play for his teams' pass efficiency, he's been hugely dependent on his receiver play.

What all that means to me is that this Dolphins team needs receivers, badly.  Jaylen Waddle was the only Dolphins' receiver this year to receive a respectable PFF receiving grade.
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