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Author Topic: Dolphins 2022 Schedule  (Read 407 times)
Dave Gray
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« Reply #15 on: May 13, 2022, 04:01:26 pm »

You guys are funny.

Every year, you fall for the same shit.  I do this little exercise where I predict wins, I get shit on for overvaluing opponent teams, y'all think we're gonna get 12 wins.  I end up right.
Last year, I said 9.75 wins.  It was 9.


http://www.thedolphinsmakemecry.com/forums/index.php?topic=26768.0
I see a 12-5 record there at least lessssgoooooo

Minimum 12 wins there lessssgo!

Perhaps we overvalue our team each year and don't learn our lessons.

I tried trolling around.  In 2006, I said 9 wins (we only had 6).  I took a abnormal ton of shit that year for my methods where pretty much everyone had more wins predicted.
http://www.thedolphinsmakemecry.com/forums/index.php?topic=9189.45
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EDGECRUSHER
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« Reply #16 on: May 13, 2022, 04:15:11 pm »

You guys are funny.

Every year, you fall for the same shit.  I do this little exercise where I predict wins, I get shit on for overvaluing opponent teams, y'all think we're gonna get 12 wins.  I end up right.
Last year, I said 9.75 wins.  It was 9.


http://www.thedolphinsmakemecry.com/forums/index.php?topic=26768.0
Perhaps we overvalue our team each year and don't learn our lessons.

I tried trolling around.  In 2006, I said 9 wins (we only had 6).  I took a abnormal ton of shit that year for my methods where pretty much everyone had more wins predicted.
http://www.thedolphinsmakemecry.com/forums/index.php?topic=9189.45

20 WINS!!!
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MyGodWearsAHoodie
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« Reply #17 on: May 13, 2022, 04:27:42 pm »

Dolphins made some upgrades here and there, but so did every team.  But there is nothing that screams massive upgrade.  The online is still suspect.  You have a better WR, but the QB while accurate at short distances doesn’t have a long ball.   I don’t see any dramatic change good or bad for the Dolphins.  8 -10 wins.  +/- 1 game from last year.  BTW  I have the same prediction for NE +/-1 so 9-11.
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« Reply #18 on: May 13, 2022, 04:32:27 pm »

Every year I say that the Dolphins are going to win the Super Bowl. I’m bound to be right  one of these years, so I’m calling it now. Dolphins are going to win the Super Bowl!
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« Reply #19 on: May 13, 2022, 07:13:45 pm »

You guys are funny.

Every year, you fall for the same shit.  I do this little exercise where I predict wins, I get shit on for overvaluing opponent teams, y'all think we're gonna get 12 wins.  I end up right.
Last year, I said 9.75 wins.  It was 9.


http://www.thedolphinsmakemecry.com/forums/index.php?topic=26768.0
Perhaps we overvalue our team each year and don't learn our lessons.

I tried trolling around.  In 2006, I said 9 wins (we only had 6).  I took a abnormal ton of shit that year for my methods where pretty much everyone had more wins predicted.
http://www.thedolphinsmakemecry.com/forums/index.php?topic=9189.45
I was 3 wins off that's not bad.  The Tua injury caused 1 maybe 2 losses by itself, Brissett was so bad. 
« Last Edit: May 13, 2022, 07:15:22 pm by Tenshot13 » Logged
Dave Gray
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« Reply #20 on: May 13, 2022, 07:52:33 pm »

I was 3 wins off that's not bad. 

3 wins off is very bad.

A 9 win team misses the playoffs, a 12 win team gets the #1 seed.  9 wins and 12 wins are worlds apart.
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« Reply #21 on: May 14, 2022, 01:32:43 pm »

I was 3 wins off that's not bad.  The Tua injury caused 1 maybe 2 losses by itself, Brissett was so bad. 

Three games isn’t much in a MLB season, it is huge in an NFL season.
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Dave Gray
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« Reply #22 on: May 15, 2022, 09:21:43 am »

I was 3 wins off that's not bad.  The Tua injury caused 1 maybe 2 losses by itself, Brissett was so bad. 

I think this pretty much sums up why fans are bad at gauging their own team.  Other teams have injuries too.  We had a scheduled L in Nola last year and got a free win because they found their QB at the bus stop that week.  You can't just count your misfortunes and discount the misfortunes of others that you benefitted form.  In general, that stuff comes out in the wash.  If Brissett sucks, you should calculate that into your win/loss total, because at some point, your backups are probably going to get some time.

Same with people talking about our improvements -- yes, we improved at WR and we hope to be better there.  But those things always come at a cost and other teams have gotten better in their weakness areas too.  In general, you're going to be roughly the same team with minor improvements year to year.  We are and have been a 9 win team for many years.  Sure, it's possible that we can overachieve to get 12 wins, but it's far likelier that we'll take baby steps to get better slowly.
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« Reply #23 on: May 15, 2022, 04:07:23 pm »

I think this pretty much sums up why fans are bad at gauging their own team.  Other teams have injuries too.  We had a scheduled L in Nola last year and got a free win because they found their QB at the bus stop that week.  You can't just count your misfortunes and discount the misfortunes of others that you benefitted form.  In general, that stuff comes out in the wash.  If Brissett sucks, you should calculate that into your win/loss total, because at some point, your backups are probably going to get some time.

Same with people talking about our improvements -- yes, we improved at WR and we hope to be better there.  But those things always come at a cost and other teams have gotten better in their weakness areas too.  In general, you're going to be roughly the same team with minor improvements year to year.  We are and have been a 9 win team for many years.  Sure, it's possible that we can overachieve to get 12 wins, but it's far likelier that we'll take baby steps to get better slowly.
When I judged 12 wins it was assuming our starting QB wasn't going to miss a quarter of the season.  That's not like losing a RB or a LB.  But whatever, if it makes you feel good to keep harping on it be my guest. 
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« Reply #24 on: May 15, 2022, 05:03:51 pm »

When I judged 12 wins it was assuming our starting QB wasn't going to miss a quarter of the season.  That's not like losing a RB or a LB.  But whatever, if it makes you feel good to keep harping on it be my guest. 

Tua went 7-5 (1 game better than .500). Brissett went 2-3 ( half a game worse than .500). But yeah if Tua (who when not hurt was slightly better than half) was to go 5-0 for the games he missed your prediction of 12 would have been on the money. 
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« Reply #25 on: May 16, 2022, 09:08:13 am »

Tua went 7-5 (1 game better than .500). Brissett went 2-3 ( half a game worse than .500). But yeah if Tua (who when not hurt was slightly better than half) was to go 5-0 for the games he missed your prediction of 12 would have been on the money. 
I'm saying I believe Miami would have won 1 or 2 more games with Tua instead of Brissett, and while that is not 12 wins, it's 10 or 11 which is much closer to 12 and I'm not getting Dave necroposting my predictions from last year.
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« Reply #26 on: May 16, 2022, 10:04:37 am »


I think Miami wins 10 games this year and makes the playoffs, mainly because I think Tua is ready to take the next step forward, plus their improved WR corps.


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Dave Gray
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« Reply #27 on: May 16, 2022, 01:11:01 pm »

^How many wins gets you in the playoffs with the added game and expanded playoff spot?

I used to feel that 10 games pretty much got you in, barring weirdness.
9 games, you had a shot, but don't count on it.
8 game, you were out, barring weirdness.

I haven't seen a big enough sample size to tell.
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« Reply #28 on: May 16, 2022, 01:13:53 pm »


^^^

I think 10 wins gets you in this year, at least with a wild card berth.

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MyGodWearsAHoodie
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« Reply #29 on: May 16, 2022, 02:11:27 pm »

^How many wins gets you in the playoffs with the added game and expanded playoff spot?

I used to feel that 10 games pretty much got you in, barring weirdness.
9 games, you had a shot, but don't count on it.
8 game, you were out, barring weirdness.

I haven't seen a big enough sample size to tell.

Granted sample size is small but so far 100% of all teams with 10+ wins made the playoffs.  100% of the 8 wins or less missed the playoffs.  One team was 9-7-1 and made it; of the 9-8 teams 1 out of 3 made it.  So it appears the same so far.  Most of the time 10 wins gets you in, 8 won’t and 9 is a crapshoot. 

BTW In theory you can make the playoffs and win your division with only 3 wins.  (would require all four teams in the division to go 3-14). Also A 17-0 team could be the #2 seed and not get a bye.  A 16-1 team could be a wildcard.  I haven’t worked out if a 15-2 team could miss the playoffs, but under the old system a 14-2 could in theory miss the playoffs. 
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