Finding 10 wins

[Dave Gray]

Based on the other thread, it sure seems like we need to shoot for 10 wins, to be able to control our destiny into the playoffs, so I think that's the goal, and I think it's a bold one, since we will have to overachieve a little to get there, IMO, but it's doable.

Here's the schedule:
Sun, Sept. 11   Patriots      1 p.m.
Sun, Sept. 18   @Ravens      1 p.m.
Sun, Sept. 25   Bills      1 p.m.
Thu, Sept. 29   @Bengals      8:15 p.m.
Sun, Oct. 9   @Jets      1 p.m.
Sun, Oct. 16   Vikings      1 p.m.
Sun, Oct. 23   Steelers      8:20 p.m.
Sun, Oct. 30   @Lions      1 p.m.
Sun, Nov. 6   @Bears      1 p.m.
Sun, Nov. 13   Browns      1 p.m.
Sun, Nov. 27   Texans      1 p.m.
Sun, Dec. 4   @49ers      4:05 p.m.
Sun, Dec. 11   @Chargers      4:05 p.m.
TBD   @Bills      TBD
Sun, Dec. 25   Packers     1 p.m.
Sun, Jan. 1   @Patriots      1 p.m.
TBD   Jets   TBD

With the caveat that you can always lose an unlosable game and win and unwinable game due to circumstances, I think we can set a road-map to the playoffs with more or less who we're gonna have to beat.

You pretty much have to get these 9 wins.
Sun, Sept. 11   Patriots      1 p.m.
Sun, Oct. 9   @Jets      1 p.m.
Sun, Oct. 16   Vikings      1 p.m.
Sun, Oct. 23   Steelers      8:20 p.m.
Sun, Oct. 30   @Lions      1 p.m.
Sun, Nov. 6   @Bears      1 p.m.
Sun, Nov. 13   Browns      1 p.m.
Sun, Nov. 27   Texans      1 p.m.
TBD   Jets   TBD

Then I think the game that hinges the season is:
Sun, Sept. 25   Bills      1 p.m.

The Bills are a better team, but you have to find a way to beat them at home.

Without a home win against the Bills or if we falter against one of the easier teams above, we'll have to try to steal from these, much, much harder games.:
Sun, Sept. 18   @Ravens      1 p.m. - Ravens are about as good as us, but we're on the road.
Thu, Sept. 29   @Bengals      8:15 p.m. - Bengals are good and it's Thursday night -- this is almost a scheduled L by NFL standards.
Sun, Dec. 4   @49ers      4:05 p.m. - This and Chargers and back to back West Coast games -- good teams with really far travel. ...very difficult.
Sun, Dec. 11   @Chargers      4:05 p.m.
TBD   @Bills      TBD - This is probably the most unwinnable game on our schedule.
Sun, Dec. 25   Packers     1 p.m. - Packers are very good.  Maybe the home crowd and the Christmas environment will give us a chance, but I'd be surprised to win this one.
Sun, Jan. 1   @Patriots      1 p.m. - Patriots aren't world beaters, but I don't think we're likely to sweep them.

[Tenshot13]

I agree with the 9 wins you posted.  The Browns game could be tough though.

--The defense stomped the Ravens last year, and they've only gotten better.  It's to be seen, but I'd bet our offense is better too.  80/20 Miami

--The Bengals are good but not unbeatable.  40/60 Bengals

--The 49ers will not have Jimmy G, they'll have Lance.  Who knows what he can do, but I'm not confident he's great.  W

--The Chargers have not done well against our defense or the Patriots defense which is similar.  60/40 Miami

--The Bills will probably beat Miami at Buffalo.  20/80 Bills

--The Packers are always deadly with Rodgers, but they don't have Adams anymore.  Who is Rodgers going to throw to?  60/40 Miami

--The Patriots have never beat Tua, you can't convince me otherwise until they do.  W

[EDGECRUSHER]

The AFC is very stacked this year with the AFC West having all 4 teams capable of 10-12 wins. So, winning 10 games only gets you in based off of tiebreakers, it will be far from a guarantee.

Chiefs
Chargers
Raiders
Broncos
Titans
Browns (if Watson plays or is only suspended a handful of games)
Ravens (trending downward to me but still the Ravens)
Bengals
Bills
Patriots (think they take a step back but they were a playoff team)

I don't see how 10 wins gets it done, has to be 11. Of course, I am very confident of 11 IF Tua can emerge as a Top 15 QB under McDaniel. If no great leap forward then I see the pessimism.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

I don't see how 10 wins gets it done, has to be 11. Of course, I am very confident of 11 IF Tua can emerge as a Top 15 QB under McDaniel. If no great leap forward then I see the pessimism.

It is quite difficult for 8 teams in a conference to each get 10+ wins.  It is possible, but quite different as they play each other.

[EDGECRUSHER]

It is quite difficult for 8 teams in a conference to each get 10+ wins.  It is possible, but quite different as they play each other.

Don't remind us, that's what happened 2 years ago when we missed the playoffs with 10 wins.

[ArtieChokePhin]

Several teams have won 10 games and spent the playoffs sitting on the couch.   The Dolphins have done it twice. 

Heck, there's even been an 11 win team that spent the playoffs sitting at home, and that was a year after the most shocking upset in Super Bowl history ** LOOKING AT HOODIE **

Now that there's 17 games, I can see 10 win teams sitting at home more often.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Several teams have won 10 games and spent the playoffs sitting on the couch.   The Dolphins have done it twice. 

Heck, there's even been an 11 win team that spent the playoffs sitting at home, and that was a year after the most shocking upset in Super Bowl history ** LOOKING AT HOODIE **

Now that there's 17 games, I can see 10 win teams sitting at home more often.

You are not taking into account that more teams now make the playoffs. 

[ArtieChokePhin]

You are not taking into account that more teams now make the playoffs.  

In 2020, there were 7 teams in each conference in the playoffs.  And there was a 10 win team that didn't make it.

[Spider-Dan]

If the Dolphins can't get to 12 wins against this schedule, they aren't very good anyway and we're just playing out the string to a disappointing playoff exit.

[EDGECRUSHER]

If the Dolphins can't get to 12 wins against this schedule, they aren't very good anyway and we're just playing out the string to a disappointing playoff exit.

I'm kinda in the same boat. Not that I think the schedule is a cakewalk, but it certainly isn't a terrible one for us with unfair travel, bye weeks or 9 straight games against division leaders. If we want to be contenders, then we win 12 games this year. No "but the thing with that is" excuses. As long as we don't lose the whole defense for the year due to ACL issues, we have to produce and if we don't, then we suck. No silver lining coming this season.

[CF DolFan]

I think it's hard if not impaossible to pick how many wins this far out. That's good for Vegas but not much else IMO. First off ... we always lose a game we should win and almsot always win a game we should lose. The NFL in general is a fickeled league.

[Spider-Dan]

it certainly isn't a terrible one for us with unfair travel, bye weeks or 9 straight games against division leaders.

Although I'm sure this was hyperbole, I was wondering if this is actually possible.  As best I can tell:

- if you won the division last year, then you will have 5 games against other 1st-place teams (full intraconference division, full interconference division, 1st place in the other two intraconference divisions, 1st place in the interconference division you played 2 seasons ago)
- if you did not win the division last year, then you will have 4 games against other 1st-place teams (full intraconference division, full interconference division, and twice against your own division winner)

Of course, you could mean "division leaders this season," but then there's no way to know that the Dolphins DON'T have 9 straight games against division leaders until they actually start playing the games.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

^^^ However, you could play 9 straight games against teams that won a playoff game last year.

[masterfins]

I'm kinda in the same boat. Not that I think the schedule is a cakewalk, but it certainly isn't a terrible one for us with unfair travel, bye weeks or 9 straight games against division leaders. If we want to be contenders, then we win 12 games this year. No "but the thing with that is" excuses. As long as we don't lose the whole defense for the year due to ACL issues, we have to produce and if we don't, then we suck. No silver lining coming this season.

Cakewalk???  I just saw today that Miami has the 3rd toughest ranked schedule behind KC and NE, followed by LV and Buffalo.

[masterfins]

Miami will either win 7 games or 13 games, it all depends on Tua.