Dolphin Power Rankings after Week 2

[CF DolFan]

There are a lot of Power Rankings out there as well as a ton of opinions but the Dolphins are Top Ten in all of the most popular ones. Kind of an odd feeing to be getting repsect on a national level. Seems like old times. Hopefully it lasts.



CBS Sports
Ranking: 8 Previous: 12

NFL.com
Ranking: 8 Previous: 13

The Athletic
Ranking: 6 Previous: 8

Pro Football Talk
Ranking: 6 Previous: 12

Yahoo Sports
Ranking: 6 Previous: 16

Sports Illustrated
Ranking: 6 Previous: 16

Pro Football Network
Ranking: 5 Previous: 12

ESPN
Ranking: 5 Previous: 12

The Ringer
Ranking: 8 Previous: 13

The Sporting News
Ranking: 8 Previous: 13

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

There are 6 teams that are 2-0.  There are 4 teams that are 2-0 with a SOV of .500 (maximum possible for a 2-0 team).  (Bills are .250; Giants are 0).  Sixth best net points.  So yeah, you should get better than top 10 in national polls. 

[Dave Gray]

It's exciting, but this feels like an overreaction to me.

[Dolfanalyst]

It's exciting, but this feels like an overreaction to me.

It might not be an overreaction based on what's happened, but I'll guarantee you the Dolphins are less "stable" at that relatively high position than are other teams.  As soon as the Dolphins look like "old Miami again" (if that happens), they'll shoot down the list far more than some other teams would.  And that stands to reason unfortunately.

[EDGECRUSHER]

It's exciting, but this feels like an overreaction to me.

On the surface, but not with a quick look at the standings. Lots of slow starts this season for what were considered playoff teams and I'll be damned if someone says the 2-0 Giants are better than us. If Stafford's arm injury is as bad as it appears to be, then we are better than the Rams. Bengals are 0-2. It's weird but we should be considered Top 10 right now.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

It's exciting, but this feels like an overreaction to me.

If you win Sunday most polls will put the Fins in top 3.  Lose and fall to 11-15.

[Dave Gray]

Maybe I should clarify.  I don't really know what power rankings are for.

We have played the 5th best football.  We aren't the 5th best team in football.

I don't have a problem with judging what we've done.  But I don't think it's reasonable to think it will hold.

[Dolfanalyst]

Maybe I should clarify.  I don't really know what power rankings are for.

We have played the 5th best football.  We aren't the 5th best team in football.

I don't have a problem with judging what we've done.  But I don't think it's reasonable to think it will hold.

What power rankings hopefully represent is a comparison among teams using the systematic variables associated with the greatest possible variance in winning, while controlling for random variables associated with winning, without overfitting.  But even if they do, the error associated with that this early in the season will be relatively large, owing to small sample size (two games).  You'd have to incorporate some expectation on the basis of last year's performance to give it any stability, and it's in that area where the Dolphins would suffer in comparison to many of the other top teams.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

  I don't really know what power rankings are for.

They don't really have a purpose other than generating ad revenue for the various sites.  Different organizations trying to duplicate the AP NCAA ratings.

[Dolfanalyst]

They don't really have a purpose other than generating ad revenue for the various sites.  Different organizations trying to duplicate the AP NCAA ratings.

Well that's not true at all.  Good power rankings are the stuff of which opening Vegans lines are made.  The rankings themselves aren't used, but the numerical values that place the teams in the order they're in certainly are.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Well that's not true at all.  Good power rankings are the stuff of which opening Vegans lines are made.  The rankings themselves aren't used, but the numerical values that place the teams in the order they're in certainly are.

Vegan lines are made from plants. 

Vegas lines don't give two shits about power ranks or even the relative strength of the teams, only about making sure equal money is flowing on both sides.

[Dolfanalyst]

Vegan lines are made from plants. 

Vegas lines don't give two shits about power ranks or even the relative strength of the teams, only about making sure equal money is flowing on both sides.

How do you think opening Vegas lines are determined?

[Spider-Dan]

To the extent that opening Vegas lines matter - I would argue that they are relatively meaningless, and that the final lines are much better indicator of whatever it may be that betting lines indicate - they only represent what Vegas thinks the betting public believes about the matchup.

I've said this before, but Vegas has literally zero interest in setting lines that are accurate to the outcome.  A bookee that perfectly nailed every single line would be a catastrophic failure and would quickly go out of business; a bookee that was within a half point of every outcome but had wildly disparate numbers of bettors on each side of the line would also be an epic bust.

The only thing Vegas wants is a line that gets an equal number of bettors on each side, and they will post whatever number they think the betting public believes (<--- this part is important) is a 50/50 call.  Even if the house had inside info that a star player was hiding an injury, they wouldn't be able to do anything with that information outside of leaking it to the public.  It is simply not relevant to the house's interests.

[Dolfanalyst]

To the extent that opening Vegas lines matter - I would argue that they are relatively meaningless, and that the final lines are much better indicator of whatever it may be that betting lines indicate - they only represent what Vegas thinks the betting public believes about the matchup.

I've said this before, but Vegas has literally zero interest in setting lines that are accurate to the outcome.  A bookee that perfectly nailed every single line would be a catastrophic failure and would quickly go out of business; a bookee that was within a half point of every outcome but had wildly disparate numbers of bettors on each side of the line would also be an epic bust.

The only thing Vegas wants is a line that gets an equal number of bettors on each side, and they will post whatever number they think the betting public believes (<--- this part is important) is a 50/50 call.  Even if the house had inside info that a star player was hiding an injury, they wouldn't be able to do anything with that information outside of leaking it to the public.  It is simply not relevant to the house's interests.

Vegas has no idea what the betting public believes when it sets an opening line, as no bets have yet come in.  If it wants equal betting on both teams -- and it does want that, from the opening line on -- then its best bet is to set the opening line at the best predicted outcome of the game based on statistical modeling.  And that's what it does.  The last thing Vegas is going to do is leave itself vulnerable to a potential whale bettor (who likely also uses statistical modeling) to take advantage of an opening line that wasn't generated with sound statistical modeling.

At any rate, the upshot is that power ratings are used to determine opening Vegas lines.  They certainly aren't just "click bait" in that realm.

[Spider-Dan]

Vegas has no idea what the betting public believes when it sets an opening line, as no bets have yet come in.

Vegas has thousands of bets for predictions on the teams' ultimate finishes, as well as bets from the week prior showing trends.  If heavy bets were coming in every week on a sorry Cowboys team, Vegas would skew the opening lines towards the Cowboys, regardless of their actual strengths or what any Power Rankings say.

You are conflating the behavior of a gambler (whose goal is an accurate prediction of the outcome) with the behavior of the house (who literally doesn't care about the outcome and only wants balanced betting).

At any rate, the upshot is that power ratings are used to determine opening Vegas lines.

False.  There was an opening line for BUF @ MIA (BUF -4, IIRC) on Monday morning before the Bills had even played, and Power Rankings are updated on Tuesdays.  They have nothing to do with each other.