Dolphin Power Rankings after Week 2

[Spider-Dan]

I haven't seen anything that indicates any of these organizations are paying their bills with Vegas winnings.
Frankly, that seems unnecessary when there is an ample supply of credulous gamblers willing to pay subscriptions for near-coin-flip-quality "insight."

P.S. To clarify: I don't dispute that casinos are able to pay their bills off the vig.  I am disputing that these collections of upjumped shamen are able to provide any sort of meaningfully accurate predictions on the outcome of NFL games.

[Dolfanalyst]

I haven't seen anything that indicates any of these organizations are paying their bills with Vegas winnings.
Frankly, that seems unnecessary when there is an ample supply of credulous gamblers willing to pay subscriptions for near-coin-flip-quality "insight."

P.S. To clarify: I don't dispute that casinos are able to pay their bills off the vig.  I am disputing that these collections of upjumped shamen are able to provide any sort of meaningfully accurate predictions on the outcome of NFL games.

Real tough to beat Vegas because not only are they using statistical models, but also in effect crowdsourcing as in the effect of betting on the movement of the line.  That's a tremendous amount of data and probably unparalleled.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Real tough to beat Vegas because not only are they using statistical models, but also in effect crowdsourcing as in the effect of betting on the movement of the line.  That's a tremendous amount of data and probably unparalleled.

You can't beat Vegas because of the vig.

Vegas knows just as much about sports as mutual fund managers know about stocks, 90% lose to a monkey throwing a dart.

[Spider-Dan]

You can't beat Vegas because of the vig.

Vegas knows just as much about sports as mutual fund managers know about stocks, 90% lose to a monkey throwing a dart.

100% this.

[Dolfanalyst]

You can't beat Vegas because of the vig.

Vegas knows just as much about sports as mutual fund managers know about stocks, 90% lose to a monkey throwing a dart.

In that sense it's important to clarify what's meant by "knows."  Vegas might not know a thing about how football is played in the manner of an NFL coach or scout for example, but it certainly does "know" how to use data (statistical models and in effect crowdsourcing) to generate probably the most accurate predicted outcomes of games on the planet.  If you doubt that, go ahead and bet the next 100 consecutive NFL games against the spread, using whatever you "know" as well to make those bets, and see how you do.  All it would take is about a 2.5% better performance than Vegas to overcome the vigorish and make you a winner overall.

[Spider-Dan]

That is not "beating Vegas."  That is beating the other people who are betting.  You are keeping Vegas in business whether you win or lose!  The vig means Vegas beat YOU the moment you placed your bet.  You're just trying to make up for it by taking money from some other sucker.

Again: Vegas does not need to be "accurate" on their predictions  (and importantly: they aren't accurate on their predictions) because they don't care.  The only thing they care about is equal bets on both sides.

[Dolfanalyst]

That is not "beating Vegas."  That is beating the other people who are betting.  You are keeping Vegas in business whether you win or lose!  The vig means Vegas beat YOU the moment you placed your bet.  You're just trying to make up for it by taking money from some other sucker.

Again: Vegas does not need to be "accurate" on their predictions  (and importantly: they aren't accurate on their predictions) because they don't care.  The only thing they care about is equal bets on both sides.

The original statement was this:

"You can't beat Vegas because of the vig."

If a mere ~2.5% margin prevents you from bettering Vegas's lines over the long haul, then obviously Vegas is utilizing a tremendous amount of "intelligence" in generating lines.  Otherwise you could simply use your own intelligence and win at let's say a 60% rate and overcome the vig easily.

So the statement that "you can't beat Vegas because of the vig" doesn't represent anywhere near the entirety of the situation.  It's a piece of the puzzle, certainly, but it's nowhere near the biggest one.  The biggest one is the statistical modeling and in effect crowdsourcing Vegas uses to generate lines.  That's what allows it to charge you a mere ~2.5% to bet and still come out ahead over the long haul, as opposed to experiencing this sort of thing far more often:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs07/news/story?id=3232876

[Dave Gray]

I think the public can't beat the vig.  An individual can.

[Spider-Dan]

The original statement was this:

"You can't beat Vegas because of the vig."

If a mere ~2.5% margin prevents you from bettering Vegas's lines over the long haul, then obviously Vegas is utilizing a tremendous amount of "intelligence" in generating lines.  Otherwise you could simply use your own intelligence and win at let's say a 60% rate and overcome the vig easily.

You don't get it.

It doesn't matter how much you win.  You aren't beating Vegas; you're beating the people on the other side of the bet. THEY are the ones who are paying you, and you're BOTH paying Vegas!

This talk about "beating Vegas" by making enough money to offset the vig is like talking about "beating the IRS" by making enough money to offset income tax.  It doesn't make sense.

[Dolfanalyst]

You don't get it.

It doesn't matter how much you win.  You aren't beating Vegas; you're beating the people on the other side of the bet. THEY are the ones who are paying you, and you're BOTH paying Vegas!

This talk about "beating Vegas" by making enough money to offset the vig is like talking about "beating the IRS" by making enough money to offset income tax.  It doesn't make sense.

Certainly it matters how much people win.  If Vegas generates a line that enables roughly 53% or more money to be paid out in one direction, the vig is overcome and Vegas loses.

Again this is what happened here:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs07/news/story?id=3232876

It's precisely in the expertise utilized in generating lines and using in effect crowdsourcing to subsequently adjust lines that such scenarios are minimized and Vegas is able to function almost always in the manner you're describing.

The point is merely that Vegas uses a great deal of data and expertise in that venture.  And that data and expertise are precisely what makes you and me and others pay the light bill out there.  And yes that happens via the vig, but what makes a mere ~2.5% margin (the vig) function in that manner is Vegas's expertise in running this show.  It's not like they're idiots out there.

[Dave Gray]

Ok, I’m gonna lock this one up since the convo has veered so much off course from dolphins power rankings.  I like the debate though..maybe we can expand on a separate Vegas thread.