Playoff Thread 2022

[Dave Gray]

This means we would have to finish the season with the same record in our final four games as the chargers.  Not likely

Why not likely?

The Chargers are a .500 team.  They aren't good.  What makes you think they're going 5-0 to end the year?  They're -37 in pt. differential and -5 TDs.


The odds-machines have Miami currently at an 87% chance of making the playoffs.  ...sure, anything can happen and you have to play the games, but unless we completely fall apart, we've got this.
Chargers have a 34% chance of getting in.

[dolphins4life]

Why not likely?

The Chargers are a .500 team.  They aren't good.  What makes you think they're going 5-0 to end the year?  They're -37 in pt. differential and -5 TDs.


The odds-machines have Miami currently at an 87% chance of making the playoffs.  ...sure, anything can happen and you have to play the games, but unless we completely fall apart, we've got this.
Chargers have a 34% chance of getting in.

Please see my other posts.  Miami has just been lucky this season.  They are not as talented as the Chargers.

I don't what you guys have been watching this season.

It's an uphill fight for Miami

It would have been interesting to put a body camera on X this year to see all the shit he's been getting away with

[Pappy13]

All three of those teams are horrible

And the Chargers have been an average team all year. So that means automatic wins in all 3 games? Please. Chargers will be lucky to finish 9-8 even if they do beat the Dolphins this week.

[dolphins4life]

And the Chargers have been an average team all year. So that means automatic wins in all 3 games? Please. Chargers will be lucky to finish 9-8 even if they do beat the Dolphins this week.

It means it's highly likely they will win all three games.

Anyway you slice it, losing on Sunday is going to severely cripple Miami's playoffs due to the simple fact that of the three teams fighting for the last spot, they have the toughest schedule by far.

Edit:  And the fact that MIAMI IS NOT A GOOD TEAM!!.  They needed the refs help to defeat the 2nd worst team in the entire NFL. 

[Pappy13]

It means it's highly likely they will win all three games.

Anyway you slice it, losing on Sunday is going to severely cripple Miami's playoffs due to the simple fact that of the three teams fighting for the last spot, they have the toughest schedule by far.

First off there are about 9 teams fighting for 7 playoff spots not 3 fighting for 1 spot so that alone blows your whole theory out of the water.

Even if you were to consider that 4 teams are going to win playoff spots by being the best in their division, you are seemingly already saying that if Miami doesn't beat San Diego they can't finish first in the AFC east which just isn't true.

Even if you put the 4 current division leaders into the playoffs that still leaves 5 teams fighting for 3 playoff spots and Miami has at least as good of record as any of them and yet for some reason you think if they lose to the Chargers they have less chances than other teams because of their schedule. So lets look at the remaining schedules of all the teams that are not currently leading their division.

Dolphins (8-4): @Chargers, @Bills, Packers, @Pats, Jets
Bengals (8-4): Browns, @Bucs, @Pats, Bills, Ravens
Jets (7-5): @Bills, Lions, Jaguars, @Seahawks, @Dolphins
Patriots(6-6): @Cardinals, @Raiders, Bengals, Dolphins, @Bills.
Chargers(6-6): Dolphins, Titans, @Colts, Rams, @Broncos.

Chargers probably have the easiest schedule, but there's a reason they are 6-6. The Bengal's schedule is arguably harder than the Dolphins schedule. Same with the Jets who have 3 TOUGH road games all against potential playoff teams. The Patriots isn't too bad considering their tougher opponents are at home except for the Bills.

I just don't think you are really looking at this objectively. The Dolphins and the Bengals are in the driver's seat for 1 of the last 3 playoff spots even if Miami loses to the Chargers and still have a decent shot at winning the division.

[dolphins4life]

Now that we can finally all agree Miami is not very good, we know it will take a miracle to make the playoffs

[dolphins4life]

I assume Miami will lose next week

[dolphins4life]

It’s pretty simple from here on out.  After losing to buffalo, they need to win 2 out of three

[dolphins4life]

I've tweaked with the machine

The only realistic chance Miami has of making the playoffs is by defeating the Patriots in week 17 and the Jets in Week 18

Anything else is virtually impossible

[dolphins4life]

If Miami loses next week, and the Patriots and Jets win, Miami falls out of the picture

[dolphins4life]

We want:

The Titans to beat the Chargers

The Lions to beat the Jets

The Raiders to beat the Patriots

[Pappy13]

I've tweaked with the machine

The only realistic chance Miami has of making the playoffs is by defeating the Patriots in week 17 and the Jets in Week 18

Anything else is virtually impossible

Wrong...unless the following link is wrong. It comes down to tie breakers and the NFL Playoff machine doesn't show the tie breaking process for the last wild card spot should Miami lose to NE but beat the Jets and either the Bills or the Packers and end up in a 3 way tie with NE and Jets. It has NE getting the last wild card, but if Miami, NE and Jets are all tied at 10-7 and Miami splits with both NE and the Jets not sure what the proper tie breaker is. According to the below link it's Miami that wins the spot but the NFL playoff machine has NE, but it doesn't say how it came up with that, I suspect it's wrong, one of them is. For NE to even finish at 10-7 they would have to beat the Raiders, Miami and either the Bills or the Bengals which would be pretty impressive. For the Jets to finish 10-7 they would have to beat the Lions, Jags and Seattle which is iffy as well. Even if Miami did finish tied with both NE and the Jets, they would only not make the playoffs if the Chargers finish tied with them or better and that's not guaranteed either. Anyway you slice it, Miami has at least a decent chance to make the playoffs if they beat the Jets and 1 other team to finish 10-7, doesn't have to be NE.

If Miami beats the Jets and they win any of their other 3 games against the Bills, Patriots and Packers they will make the playoffs according to the below link. The Jets game is key. If they win that game, then they only need 1 other win. There's a small possibility that Miami could win JUST the Jets game and make the playoffs, but then the Jets, Patriots and Chargers all have to lose a lot of games.

Miami Dolphins Playoff Odds

If Miami wins all 4 they could win the AFCE.

[EDGECRUSHER]

We want:

The Titans to beat the Chargers

The Lions to beat the Jets

The Raiders to beat the Patriots

Mike White is out so it's Zach Wilson against the Lions now. So, either he has a major statement game or sucks as usual. Lions have won 5 of 6 with their only defeat being 3 points to Buffalo, so they SHOULD win this one.

[dolphins4life]

Wrong...unless the following link is wrong. It comes down to tie breakers and the NFL Playoff machine doesn't show the tie breaking process for the last wild card spot should Miami lose to NE but beat the Jets and either the Bills or the Packers and end up in a 3 way tie with NE and Jets. It has NE getting the last wild card, but if Miami, NE and Jets are all tied at 10-7 and Miami splits with both NE and the Jets not sure what the proper tie breaker is. According to the below link it's Miami that wins the spot but the NFL playoff machine has NE, but it doesn't say how it came up with that, I suspect it's wrong, one of them is. For NE to even finish at 10-7 they would have to beat the Raiders, Miami and either the Bills or the Bengals which would be pretty impressive. For the Jets to finish 10-7 they would have to beat the Lions, Jags and Seattle which is iffy as well. Even if Miami did finish tied with both NE and the Jets, they would only not make the playoffs if the Chargers finish tied with them or better and that's not guaranteed either. Anyway you slice it, Miami has at least a decent chance to make the playoffs if they beat the Jets and 1 other team to finish 10-7, doesn't have to be NE.

If Miami beats the Jets and they win any of their other 3 games against the Bills, Patriots and Packers they will make the playoffs according to the below link. The Jets game is key. If they win that game, then they only need 1 other win. There's a small possibility that Miami could win JUST the Jets game and make the playoffs, but then the Jets, Patriots and Chargers all have to lose a lot of games.

Miami Dolphins Playoff Odds

If Miami wins all 4 they could win the AFCE.

They could also get the number one seed.

In reality, this is a bubble team with an uphill fight.

Tomorrow's game will be a miracle if they win.

Can they win two out of their last three?

[dolphins4life]

I simulated the Chargers winning out.

Then, I simulated wins for the Jets and Patriots in every game except the ones against Miami.

Chargers are 11-6

Jets and Patriots are 10-6

I simulated a win for Miami against Green Bay

In this scenario,

Miami cannot make the playoffs unless they beat both NE and NYJ

If Miami beats the Packers and Jets, the Patriots would have to  lose two games to the Raiders, Bengals, and Bills for Miami to make it.  Not likely.

Anyway you slice it, it boils down to one thing.  Win the last two games.