The midterms

[Dave Gray]

The population of Florida hasn’t gotten more conservative, but the Florida GOP has successfully enacted more and more voter suppression methods to disenfranchise poor and minority voters.

I don't know.  There seems to be a conservative trend here.  We have a shift in South Florida with a strong Cuban population that reliably are voting Republican.

[Dave Gray]

I thought they were a swing state.

I mean...it's been close by overall numbers statewide, but we don't elect Democrats.  It comes close and you have to spend a lot of money to compete here.

We haven't had a Democrat in our governor's mansion since 1998.
For President, it's always within a few percentage points, but it seems to be breaking more Republican since 2016.

For Senate, there are 2 Republicans now.  There likely will be two Republicans again.  We haven't had 2 Democrats since 1998 and even then, it was for a very short amount of time before Bob Graham retired.  We haven't had a Democrat at all in the senate for 10 years.

Republicans hold a 76 to 42 majority in the House here.  It's been a GOP majority since 1996.

There was a big political shift after 1994 and ever since then, everything has broken towards the Republicans except for a few squeaker statewide elections for President.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I don't know.  There seems to be a conservative trend here.  We have a shift in South Florida with a strong Cuban population that reliably are voting Republican.

Lots of people migrating there from blue states. Basically, Republican voters who don't want to live there anymore so of course they're bringing their Republican votes with them. I know of several old co-workers here in NY who moved down there, it's more common for the NYC folk to bail.

Downside for you guys is that your housing market got very expensive.

[Dave Gray]

Downside for you guys is that your housing market got very expensive.

Yeah, and that might have something to do with it.  In order to move here from somewhere else, you pretty much have to be wealthy.  The people I know (and there are several) that are leaving FL are those that are just able to make their money stretch further in other places.

Just based on raw demographics -- those with cash in hand to buy houses are likelier to vote Republican.

But it isn't just one reason -- old people, wealthy people, Cuban people -- these are demographics that lean Republican and they're big in this state.

[dolphins4life]

None of what you said is connected. Did you use to walk to school or pack your lunch?

Yes, it is connected.

Handling of the pandemic is a political issue, and how a government handles the pandemic affects their voters.

Florida was a huge hotspot.

If the healthcare system was overworked, it could mean that those healthcare workers, the families of the victims, the families of those healthcare workers, and people who were denied access to healthcare would be angry at DeSantis and vote Democrat.

If the vaccines were safe and effective, and most Republican voters did not get them, it could mean that the Republican party lost voters to the virus, which affects the results of the election.

If the Republicans lost more people to the virus, that affects the election.

Since it appears that this is not happening, does that mean it was all a sham?

Dave said that when he went to the hospital awhile ago, it was overrun by Covid patients.

If this is true, wouldn't that make people upset at the government's handling of the pandemic?

[Spider-Dan]

If the healthcare system was overworked, it could mean that those healthcare workers, the families of the victims, the families of those healthcare workers, and people who were denied access to healthcare would be angry at DeSantis and vote Democrat.

First of all, that isn't how voters necessarily think.  For example, they could blame their local elected Democratic officials.

But more to the point:

If the Republicans win control of Congress, does that prove that pandemic was a hoax?  Does it prove the vaccines were more deadly than the virus?

The facts of the COVID pandemic are not affected one bit by how angry the voters are, nor by whom they choose to blame.

Again, the fact that voters chose to re-elect Bush in 2004 did not "prove" that Iraq had WMDs.

[dolphins4life]

First of all, that isn't how voters necessarily think.  For example, they could blame their local elected Democratic officials.

But more to the point:
The facts of the COVID pandemic are not affected one bit by how angry the voters are, nor by whom they choose to blame.

Again, the fact that voters chose to re-elect Bush in 2004 did not "prove" that Iraq had WMDs.

But the NUMBER of VOTERS IS affected by the virus.  The facts of the pandemic DO affect the number of voters.  Surely you must understand this?

Whether or not Iraq had WMDs has nothing to do with the number of voters.

[Phishfan]

Yes, it is connected.

Handling of the pandemic is a political issue, and how a government handles the pandemic affects their voters.

Florida was a huge hotspot.

If the healthcare system was overworked, it could mean that those healthcare workers, the families of the victims, the families of those healthcare workers, and people who were denied access to healthcare would be angry at DeSantis and vote Democrat.

If the vaccines were safe and effective, and most Republican voters did not get them, it could mean that the Republican party lost voters to the virus, which affects the results of the election.

If the Republicans lost more people to the virus, that affects the election.

Since it appears that this is not happening, does that mean it was all a sham?

Dave said that when he went to the hospital awhile ago, it was overrun by Covid patients.

If this is true, wouldn't that make people upset at the government's handling of the pandemic?

I'm not going to finish reading past just a few words. You asked if the pandemic was a hoax. It was not.  There is a scientific definition of what a pandemic is. Now you switched direction and are talking about the handling of the pandemic which is a political topic. Your first question was stupid.

[CF DolFan]

Yeah, and that might have something to do with it.  In order to move here from somewhere else, you pretty much have to be wealthy.  The people I know (and there are several) that are leaving FL are those that are just able to make their money stretch further in other places.

Just based on raw demographics -- those with cash in hand to buy houses are likelier to vote Republican.

But it isn't just one reason -- old people, wealthy people, Cuban people -- these are demographics that lean Republican and they're big in this state.

One of the guys on my projects told me about his uncle who lived in the Bronx. He said his uncle had a 3 bedroom 1100 sq ft house that he's been in this guys whole life ... about 40 years so it was paid off. He said there was nothing nice about it and actually said it was kind of run down. Anyway, the uncle sold it in 2021 for 1.2 million dollars and moved to Florida where he purchased a 325,000 home for cash. That's a great retirement plan if you ask me.

[Dave Gray]

One of the guys on my projects told me about his uncle who lived in the Bronx. He said his uncle had a 3 bedroom 1100 sq ft house that he's been in this guys whole life ... about 40 years so it was paid off. He said there was nothing nice about it and actually said it was kind of run down. Anyway, the uncle sold it in 2021 for 1.2 million dollars and moved to Florida where he purchased a 325,000 home for cash. That's a great retirement plan if you ask me.

Yeah, no doubt.

My old girlfriend's parents did something similar, all within the state.  They had a small house in Delray and moved up by you in Lake Mary...this was probably 20 years ago now.  But they got a comparable/nicer house for way less money.

Lots of people shifted to the middle of the state, around Port St. Lucie/Vero.  Those build up and it goes to the next area.

What we're dealing with now, around me, just isn't sustainable.  Ain't no houses for 325,000. 

[CF DolFan]

Yeah, no doubt.

My old girlfriend's parents did something similar, all within the state.  They had a small house in Delray and moved up by you in Lake Mary...this was probably 20 years ago now.  But they got a comparable/nicer house for way less money.

Lots of people shifted to the middle of the state, around Port St. Lucie/Vero.  Those build up and it goes to the next area.

What we're dealing with now, around me, just isn't sustainable.  Ain't no houses for 325,000. 

I know. One of my inspectors moved up here from Miami. He and his wife are renting out their 1300 sq ft home for $2,400 while they are renting a 2000 square ft home in Kissimmee for $1,750 a month. they left their families to move up here as a test run and have decided to stay.

It's so crazy although it has slowed down. I lived in an HOA in Lake Mary up until July 2021 and we sold for 366,000 which was the top of the market in our neighborhood as we had updated everything inside and outside including roof, windows, and paint. That same house today is appraising on Zillow for 465,00 just over a year later. The house I bought, while higher in value, is appraising on Zillow over 150k more than we originally paid.

[Spider-Dan]

But the NUMBER of VOTERS IS affected by the virus.  The facts of the pandemic DO affect the number of voters.  Surely you must understand this?

Do you expect that the total number of Florida voters in 2022 will be more or less than in 2018?  I don't understand what this is supposed to "prove."

Once again: voter preferences do not and cannot "prove" whether COVID was a hoax, or whether the vaccines are "more deadly" than the virus.  This is akin to taking a vote on whether the earth is flat.  Democracy has its limits.

[Spider-Dan]

Yeah, no doubt.

My old girlfriend's parents did something similar, all within the state.  They had a small house in Delray and moved up by you in Lake Mary...this was probably 20 years ago now.  But they got a comparable/nicer house for way less money.

Lots of people shifted to the middle of the state, around Port St. Lucie/Vero.  Those build up and it goes to the next area.

What we're dealing with now, around me, just isn't sustainable.  Ain't no houses for 325,000.

I see a different phenomenon: people want to live in (usually expensive) neighborhoods with well-funded schools when they have kids, but once the kids are gone, it's time to move to a state with low taxes.

It's all self-interest.

[dolphins4life]

Do you expect that the total number of Florida voters in 2022 will be more or less than in 2018?  I don't understand what this is supposed to "prove."

Once again: voter preferences do not and cannot "prove" whether COVID was a hoax, or whether the vaccines are "more deadly" than the virus.  This is akin to taking a vote on whether the earth is flat.  Democracy has its limits.

Democrats took the virus seriously and followed precautions.

Republicans did not

Therefore, if the virus was deadly, the Republican party should have lost a lot more people, and thus a lot more voters, than the Democratic party.

The results of the midterms should reflect this.

This does not appear to be the case.

Sidebar:  Not to mention that if things were as bad as they said there were in Florida with Covid, DeSantis would not be favored.  Trump lost the election in 2020, mainly because of his perceived mishandling of the pandemic.

Double sidebar:  Does anybody else understand that point I'm trying to make and do you agree or disagree with it?

[Spider-Dan]

Therefore, if the virus was deadly, the Republican party should have lost a lot more people, and thus a lot more voters, than the Democratic party.

The results of the midterms should reflect this.

Your premise is incorrect, for several reasons:

1) Even if COVID had killed zero people, it would be ridiculous to expect literally the same results in 2018 as in 2022.  Voters sometimes change their minds!
2) Even if more Republicans were killed by COVID than Democrats, that loss could be offset by new (younger) Republican voters in FL that didn't die, which is why I asked if you think there will be more voters in 2022 than in 2018.  If you lost 50,000 Republicans to COVID but there are 150,000 more voters in 2022, those new voters matter.
3) Even if we set aside both of the above, it is entirely possible that Floridians can blame COVID deaths on "Democrat mayors" or "Anthony Fauci" and re-elect Republicans anyway!  This should be very easy for you, in particular,  to understand:

Does it prove the vaccines were more deadly than the virus?

If voters like you can question whether the deaths were caused by the virus, or caused by the vaccine, how can we take any lesson at all from the election results?

Are we supposed to be taking a vote on... what the deaths were really caused by?
As I said, it's like voting on the shape of the planet.