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Author Topic: Miami Dolphins 2022 Lucky or unlucky?  (Read 464 times)
Pappy13
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« on: November 17, 2022, 04:45:37 pm »

I found this article to be interesting. I would agree with just about everything for the Dolphins especially the defense. Didn't really read the rest of it about the other teams.

Lucky/Unluck NFL teams in 2022

Lucky: Miami Dolphins (7-3)

What has gone right: One-score games, hidden special teams

Dolphins fans are rightfully over the moon. Tua Tagovailoa has been the league's best quarterback on a snap-by-snap basis this season. Mike McDaniel looks to be the right head-coaching hire after years of disappointing decisions. The defense has struggled, but Miami has won every game Tagovailoa has completed so far in 2022. If anything, given that the Dolphins lost the three games Tagovailoa mostly or entirely missed because of a concussion, Fins supporters might feel like they've been unlucky.

While the Dolphins are a legitimate playoff team and contender in the AFC East, I would argue they've had fortuitous timing for stretches. They are 5-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer, including comeback victories in consecutive weeks over the Ravens and Bills. In the wins over the Bills and Steelers, they had to come up with a red zone stop to win. The Lions and Bears had fourth-quarter drives to try to take the lead, only to come up short.

Josh Boyer's defense deserves credit for coming up with those stops, but it's curious how it has struggled so often for long stretches of games and then sealed up shop at exactly the right time. On the whole, the Dolphins rank 26th in defensive EPA per play allowed. When they're leading by seven points or fewer in the fourth quarter, though, they have the league's eighth-best defense.

What's weird about those red zone stops is that Miami otherwise has been abysmal inside its own 20-yard line. It has allowed teams to convert for touchdowns on 68.8% of their red zone possessions, the fourth-worst mark in the league. The Dolphins only have three "stuffs" for zero points in 32 red zone trips this season: a stop at the 1-yard line against the Ravens, from the 2-yard line against the Bills and an interception of Kenny Pickett in the Steelers win. They needed all three stops to win those games.

Miami also has benefited from sloppy play on special teams. While it has fielded the league's worst special teams by DVOA through 10 weeks, it has gotten help from a source I wouldn't typically consider: subpar opposing punting. While opposing kickers have been above-average on field goals and extra points, punters facing the Dolphins are only averaging 41.9 yards per punt. That's nearly two yards per punt below the second-worst mark, and it's more than five yards below the league average.

What it means: The Dolphins probably can't count on pulling out quite as many close games over the rest of the season. Four of their next six games after the bye are on the road, including a three-game road trip against the 49ers, Chargers and Bills.

With that being said, the defense is likely to improve in the red zone and produce more as a pass rush after adding Bradley Chubb at the trade deadline. The Dolphins should be a more balanced team from here on out, which could be scary given how effective their offense has been with Tagovailoa on the field.
« Last Edit: November 17, 2022, 04:49:51 pm by Pappy13 » Logged

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EDGECRUSHER
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« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2022, 04:54:36 pm »

I see some truth to this, but you can ride "luck" very far in any given season. Buffalo has in the past.

Of course, considering our injuries, I don't think we fall under the lucky category.
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Pappy13
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« Reply #2 on: November 17, 2022, 05:06:15 pm »

Of course, considering our injuries, I don't think we fall under the lucky category.
You make a good point here, I don't think we've been lucky with injuries. Not necessarily unlucky, but definitely not lucky. I guess he did touch on it with Tua, but that's all he mentioned and there's been more to the injuries than just Tua.
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