Would you keep Josh Boyer?

[Dave Gray]

Everyone wants heads to roll after the season is over, but I wonder if Boyer has earned a place here.

The injuries that we dealt with on defense this year were like nothing I've ever seen + the Jones quiet-quitting situation.  Also, X isn't what he was.  None of that is on Boyer.

Our D held it down against Buffalo, not to mention shutting down the Jets completely when we needed it.  We didn't get the turnovers like we did last year, which I think was the difference.  But some of that is luck.

I am not in love with Boyer, but I am hesitant to just start canning guys and hiring new guys.  If I were in charge, I think I'd hang on to him.

[Sunstroke]

There is something to be said about consistency with your coaching staff...

[EDGECRUSHER]

I would replace him, but I understand the people who wouldn't. Like you said, never before have I seen so many injuries and X was hurt the whole year, probably because he couldn't take 1-2 games off to heal. Then again, what adjustments were made during the season to try to turn it around?

If there is a good candidate to replace him who won't need to switch out half the personnel to run his scheme, then hire him. If not, might as well stick with him again and hope we stay healthy. In a purely positive and almost child like innocent way, it's not wrong to say that next year we will see the return of great players and Pro Bowlers, just from injury alone. If we went 9-8 without them, what will we do with them?

[CF DolFan]

I wouldn't replace him. At a certain point injuries do become an issue. That aside ... over the last few games they really seemed to have figured it out. Hard for me to justify getting rid of him just because.

[Spider-Dan]

The defense felt very strong in second halves this year.  One thing that was really impressive was how confident I felt whenever the opponent went for it on 4th.  I wasn't scared at all.  In fact, on both sides of the ball I felt very confident on 4th down attempts, which is quite a change as a Dolphins fan.

[Dolfanalyst]

The culprit on defense was Bradley Chubb.  They paid a king's ransom to get a player at a very important position and he underperformed tremendously.

Mid-season this team was at a juncture in which the combination of their aerial assault offensively combined with an improved pass rush could've made them downright lethal.  Neither thing materialized from then on, however.

[EDGECRUSHER]

The culprit on defense was Bradley Chubb.  They paid a king's ransom to get a player at a very important position and he underperformed tremendously.

Mid-season this team was at a juncture in which the combination of their aerial assault offensively combined with an improved pass rush could've made them downright lethal.  Neither thing materialized from then on, however.

Was the problem a new defensive scheme or he got paid and is basically calling it a day now?

[Spider-Dan]

The culprit on defense was Bradley Chubb.  They paid a king's ransom to get a player at a very important position and he underperformed tremendously.

Chubb joined the Dolphins right before the game on Week 9.
Team sacks per week:

Week 1: 2
Week 2: 0
Week 3: 4
Week 4: 1
Week 5: 2
Week 6: 3
Week 7: 2
Week 8: 1
Average team sacks per game pre-trade: 1.875

Week 9: 2
Week 10: 3
bye
Week 12: 5
Week 13: 4
Week 14: 4
Week 15: 2
Week 16: 2
Week 17: 3
Week 18: 0
Wild Card: 7
Average team sacks per game post-trade: 3.2

In order to accurately evaluate the impact of a player, one must look at more than just his statline.
Chubb has had a significant impact on the pass rush.  The Dolphins have gained almost a sack and a half per game since he arrived; that projects to 22 more team sacks over a season.

[Dolfanalyst]

Chubb joined the Dolphins right before the game on Week 9.
Team sacks per week:

Week 1: 2
Week 2: 0
Week 3: 4
Week 4: 1
Week 5: 2
Week 6: 3
Week 7: 2
Week 8: 1
Average team sacks per game pre-trade: 1.875

Week 9: 2
Week 10: 3
bye
Week 12: 5
Week 13: 4
Week 14: 4
Week 15: 2
Week 16: 2
Week 17: 3
Week 18: 0
Wild Card: 7
Average team sacks per game post-trade: 3.2

In order to accurately evaluate the impact of a player, one must look at more than just his statline.
Chubb has had a significant impact on the pass rush.  The Dolphins have gained almost a sack and a half per game since he arrived; that projects to 22 more team sacks over a season.

I like the work and the idea, but a t-test for those distributions produces a p-value of 0.09, so we can't rule out random variation sufficiently.  If it continues through next season and we compare that entire season with this one, then we'd very likely reach statistical significance.

[Spider-Dan]

So what is the robust statistical analysis you used to determine that Chubb "underperformed tremendously"?
Surely it cannot be the case that 10 games is somehow Not Enough to determine that Chubb had an impact on team sacks, but Is Enough to determine that he did not live up to his contract.

[Downunder Dolphan]

The defense felt very strong in second halves this year.  One thing that was really impressive was how confident I felt whenever the opponent went for it on 4th.  I wasn't scared at all.  In fact, on both sides of the ball I felt very confident on 4th down attempts, which is quite a change as a Dolphins fan.

Add in the amount of time the defense were put on the field in some games due to our offense not spending time there, and overall I'm more than satisfied with Boyer remaining as DC.

[CF DolFan]

Spider is correct. While he didn't set the world on fire in stats it isn't a coincidence that everyone else  got better once he got here.

[EDGECRUSHER]

Spider is correct. While he didn't set the world onfire in stats it isn't a coincidence that everyone else  got better once he got here.

I agree. Whether he was double teamed and opened up room for other guys or he was a leader on the field, we got better when he arrived. Coincidence? Certainly possible, but unlikely.

[Dolfanalyst]

So what is the robust statistical analysis you used to determine that Chubb "underperformed tremendously"?
Surely it cannot be the case that 10 games is somehow Not Enough to determine that Chubb had an impact on team sacks, but Is Enough to determine that he did not live up to his contract.

There was no statistical analysis.  It was my personal perception that the team's pass defense didn't improve significantly after his arrival.  With some further checking I found that prior to Chubb's arrival the Dolphins were at the 38th percentile in the league in EPA per pass dropback surrendered.  After his arrival that dropped to the 17th percentile.  Whether the fault for that lies in the Dolphins' front office or within Chubb or both, the 1st-round pick and the contract didn't "perform" as intended.

[CF DolFan]

There was no statistical analysis.  It was my personal perception that the team's pass defense didn't improve significantly after his arrival.  With some further checking I found that prior to Chubb's arrival the Dolphins were at the 38th percentile in the league in EPA per pass dropback surrendered.  After his arrival that dropped to the 17th percentile.  Whether the fault for that lies in the Dolphins' front office or within Chubb or both, the 1st-round pick and the contract didn't "perform" as intended.

So if I'm understanding this correctly you're saying we could have picked a rookie the bottom of round #1 that would have made the defense more than 21% better? I would easily have to disagree with that assumtion.