Who will be the GOP nominee?

[Dave Gray]

I am all over the place and can't decide.

So many things wouldn't surprise me.
I can see Trump winning, but I also see a world where Trump is unable to grow in popularity.  If you like him, you like him by now.  If you don't, he's not winning you over.  So I think a lot of it will have to do with how many people run against him.

Desantis is an unknown so I think that makes him popular.  But he's not a good speaker and he isn't quick on his feet.  He doesn't have the charisma Trump has.  So, it's a tough lane.  Does he just let Trump attack him and call him names, hoping Trump fades or does he fight back?  I don't even know what's best for him.

And then there's whatever "never Trump" guy rises to the top...and it's a question of how far they go.



Assuming everyone who can run does, I see three lanes:

1) Trump
2) Not Trump, but trying to capture Trump.  So, basically, "I'm Trump without the baggage".
3) Anti-Trump.  "Trump is a threat to Democracy.  Save the Republican party, etc."

There is no #3 yet.  It ain't Haley.  ...she has no lane.  It ain't Pence.  But someone will probably step into this lane.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I try to avoid the political threads but I don't think I am saying anything that would spark an argument so I will say it will likely be DeSantis.

The media and grifters are 100% behind getting Trump nominated again for the sake of ratings and their own careers, but he isn't as sharp as he once was. Whether that is due to time away from the limelight or being surrounded by the worst people in existence(Kushner and Hannity), the end result is the same. His vaccine stance is so unpopular with his own voters he might as well come out for abortion until the moment of birth.

The biggest strike against him is he now has a resume and can't run on promises where DeSantis can. He kept a lot of his promises and in general his voters were happy with his performance as POTUS, but his 2020 was an unmitigated disaster and he couldn't build the wall completely despite having total GOP control for 2 years. He let the government have too much power during Covid and DeSantis was the polar opposite. That is what voters will remember in the primaries. Trump's ego can't let him forget that he was never thanked for the vaccines so he keeps pushing them until he gets it. Of course, his base doesn't want them and Democrats wouldn't praise him if he rescued their babies from a burning building, so he's screwed there. No thanks for Donny coming anytime soon.

Trump can still win but "Ron DeSanctimonious" and "Meatball Ron" are terrible nicknames. If that's the best he's got, he will "gracefully" bow out halfway through the primaries and endorse Ron in exchange for public praise or maybe even some cabinet position. Ron can't win without the hardcore Trump base so he can't go too hard on him during the primaries. He needs Trump to endorse him but not run rallies and steal the spotlight for himself. A tightrope act.

[dolphins4life]

Desantis may not want to run because of how good he is doing in Florida

Here's a question  Were there mail in ballots before 2020?

It's an uphill fight for the GOP anyway because they've lost so many more people to Covid than the Democrats have.

The Democrat strategy since 2020 seems to be playing possum.  You don't see Democrats commenting on social media.

It's odd.  The Electoral College is literally the stupidest invention in history.  It means my vote means nothing.  However, without it, the Republicans would not stand a chance.

Since the first George Bush, the Republicans have one just ONE popular vote and THREE electoral colleges, which should have actually been two.  One, in 2004, was by just one state.

Desantis is popular because of his fight against woke culture.

[Dave Gray]

^ Please stay on topic.

[Dave Gray]

I go back and forth on this over and over again.  There seems to be a unique love affair with Trump.  I don't think that Desantis has that special sauce.  However, I think that the longer than Desantis can stay undefined, people will imprint on him.

And ultimately, I don't think that Trump can win a general election.  Desantis can.  I don't think I have some super-knowledge that the right doesn't have so they must understand this as well.

It probably comes down to money.  I think the establishment and the money will not go to Trump again.  And his rally cry seems to still be about rigged votes from the 2020 election, which I don't think many people care about anymore.

The backroom deal mentioned above is possible, but not for a cabinet position -- presidents don't go on to become some other job working under another president.  Zero chance of Trump working under anyone else.  But a deal to keep the Feds off of his back is likely.

I want to pick the field, not because I have someone in mind, but just because I think that so much can and will happen to either Trump or Desantis in the coming years, including deciding not to run.   But I just can't put my head there.

On account of electability, I think Desantis is the likeliest outcome.

[EDGECRUSHER]

I go back and forth on this over and over again.  There seems to be a unique love affair with Trump.  I don't think that Desantis has that special sauce.  However, I think that the longer than Desantis can stay undefined, people will imprint on him.

The love affair with Trump was because everyone was so sick of "real politicians". So much so that a billionaire celebrity born into wealth was more relatable to the common man than anyone else running. Another part  is people "growing up politically" with certain politicians. A lot of people became more politically aware when Obama was elected President, hence their admiration for him. Same as Trump, a lot of people who didn't usually vote or gave up with politics came back for him and that creates a "first love" level of devotion.

And ultimately, I don't think that Trump can win a general election.  Desantis can.  I don't think I have some super-knowledge that the right doesn't have so they must understand this as well.

It probably comes down to money.  I think the establishment and the money will not go to Trump again.  And his rally cry seems to still be about rigged votes from the 2020 election, which I don't think many people care about anymore.

No GOP can win a general election until they realize that mail in voting is here to stay, like it or not. So, until they embrace that and go door to door collecting ballots where it's legal, it just won't matter. I feel that DeSantis realizes this since he won by so much in Florida in part due to mail in restrictions and won't let it take him by surprise in 2024. I don't feel like Trump learned that lesson yet and would lose a general.

People still care about election integrity and 2020, but they are sick of Trump's whining about it. After all, basically his whole base thought some shenanigans were going to happen during that election and he didn't do anything about it, so whining about it just exposes how dumb he was to let it happen. DeSantis actually did something about election integrity, which is why he won by so much in November. No ballot harvesting. Another issue where he crushes Trump head to head.

The backroom deal mentioned above is possible, but not for a cabinet position -- presidents don't go on to become some other job working under another president.  Zero chance of Trump working under anyone else.  But a deal to keep the Feds off of his back is likely.

I want to pick the field, not because I have someone in mind, but just because I think that so much can and will happen to either Trump or Desantis in the coming years, including deciding not to run.   But I just can't put my head there.

On account of electability, I think Desantis is the likeliest outcome.

You're probably right about the cabinet position thing, but I feel like Trump is addicted to being heard and he would want something in return to admit defeat to Ron. Don't know what that is right now, maybe just some public promises about FBI reform or whatnot. He dosen't have to worry about the Feds, they don't have anything on Trump and any legal action makes him stronger. Nothing unites the base like going against the FBI.

There really is no other option depsite what the media will try to say, it's Ron or Don. The rest are just there to use campaign donations as money laundering. Nikki Haley or Mike Pompeo have as much of a shot at winning as Adolf Hitler does as Prime Minister of Israel. In terms of Mike Pence, he is polling behind Euthanizing Puppies.

[Dave Gray]

There really is no other option depsite what the media will try to say, it's Ron or Don. The rest are just there to use campaign donations as money laundering. Nikki Haley or Mike Pompeo have as much of a shot at winning as Adolf Hitler does as Prime Minister of Israel. In terms of Mike Pence, he is polling behind Euthanizing Puppies.

Where I disagree with this is that the people you're naming are trying to be Trump-lite.  That's already Desantis.  The spot is taken.

There is room for a never Trumper.  I don't know who that will be.  Maybe someone like Larry Hogan.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Where I disagree with this is that the people you're naming are trying to be Trump-lite.  That's already Desantis.  The spot is taken.

There is room for a never Trumper.  I don't know who that will be.  Maybe someone like Larry Hogan.

I would combine #3 to include both "never Trumpers" and the folks ended their support for Trump ~1/6/21. 

Liz Chenney and Adam Kinzinger occupy the same lane as Larry Hogan and Mitt Romney. 

[EDGECRUSHER]

Where I disagree with this is that the people you're naming are trying to be Trump-lite.  That's already Desantis.  The spot is taken.

There is room for a never Trumper.  I don't know who that will be.  Maybe someone like Larry Hogan.

I think there will be NeverTrumpers on the ballot but they have no shot. Their influence is propped up by the media, the GOP base is no longer the party of endless wars. That's why Mitch McConnell is so unpopular(not to mention the #1 reason we need term limits but that is off topic). Liz Cheney got stomped in her own primary, she has no chance in a general election.

For the record, I like Ron but I'm not a disciple. I just think he has a better shot at the nomination than Trump due to his demeanor and current popularity. People tolerated Trump's humor and ego when things were going well. No one wants to hear nicknames and self absorption during a recession. Humor is not a valuable tool when people can't feed their kids due to inflation.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Liz Cheney got stomped in her own primary, she has no chance in a general election.

Disagree.  Liz Cheney could win a general election, her problem is the primary.  Her *ONLY* chance would be if nobody opposes Biden on the democratic side and she could pick up a few early victories buoyed by Democrats in states with open primaries, but that is unlikely. 

[EDGECRUSHER]

Disagree.  Liz Cheney could win a general election, her problem is the primary.  Her *ONLY* chance would be if nobody opposes Biden on the democratic side and she could pick up a few early victories buoyed by Democrats in states with open primaries, but that is unlikely. 

How could she win a general election if her own party hates her? Whatever Democrats like her now wouldn't vote for her in a general, they would vote for Biden or another person if Biden wasn't running. She would be looking at a Reagan/Mondale type of beating.

[Spider-Dan]

None of the candidates in the GOP can possibly beat Trump.  They are all terrified of him and tripping over their own feet to praise him, while he lobs bomb after bomb in their direction.

If taking the high road and refusing to engage Trump was a viable tactic in a GOP primary, Jeb Bush would have been the nominee in 2016.  It seems like no one in the GOP has learned that very obvious lesson, and they are all determined to repeat the experience.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

How could she win a general election if her own party hates her? Whatever Democrats like her now wouldn't vote for her in a general, they would vote for Biden or another person if Biden wasn't running. She would be looking at a Reagan/Mondale type of beating.

The extremists in her own party hate her, but a run of the mill republican would choose her over Biden.  But yeah, democrats are going to vote for Biden over her. 

[EDGECRUSHER]

The extremists in her own party hate her, but a run of the mill republican would choose her over Biden.  But yeah, democrats are going to vote for Biden over her. 

I think you misunderstand the GOP base because you are from the other side. No one in the GOP likes her except the NeverTrumpers. Just being a Republican in a Presidential election means she will still get tens of millions of votes, but she would probably lose 40 states in total.

[EDGECRUSHER]

None of the candidates in the GOP can possibly beat Trump.  They are all terrified of him and tripping over their own feet to praise him, while he lobs bomb after bomb in their direction.

If taking the high road and refusing to engage Trump was a viable tactic in a GOP primary, Jeb Bush would have been the nominee in 2016.  It seems like no one in the GOP has learned that very obvious lesson, and they are all determined to repeat the experience.

DeSantis is doing fine right now by basically ignoring Trump and letting him act a fool. Trump is still an incredibly popular person within his own base, but it is waining. Attacking Trump and using media talking points is a death sentence in a primary, which is why no one else stands a chance aside from "Meatball Ron". Like with all bullies, Trump can be defeated by respectfully pointing out the wrong things he did, that way if they win the nomination they won't lose his base since he never attacked him personally.

Jeb had the misfortune of being a legacy politician and people were just tired of it. The establishment wanted him as the nominee and everyone knew it, which is why he was attacked the most. It will be a very long time before you get a guy like Jeb as the nominee again.