Who will be the GOP nominee?

[Spider-Dan]

I get that Trump said it but it really isn't being thrown around by the average GOP person.

I'm not quoting the "average GOP person."  I'm quoting the overwhelming frontrunner in the GOP presidential primary, whom you voted for twice.

LOL ... I stood next to him at Bike Week and looked him in his eyes. I'm 6' as well.

I doubt you, a six-foot-tall man, were wearing 3-inch heels when you "looked him in his eyes," which is the point.  If he is wearing heels (or lifts) to be the same height as you, he ain't 6' tall.

Although I must admit that I am quite amused to hear you criticizing these fanatical Trump supporters who will follow him blindly, I have to wonder... why bother?  Trump has done far, far worse than "sell out to the swamp" - for example, he bragged on tape about sexually assaulting women - and you pulled the lever for him twice anyway.  Seems a little late to grow a conscience, especially when you'll be pulling the lever for Trump again in November 2024 if he wins the primary.

[Spider-Dan]

Somewhat tangentially related, here are the toplines from a recent CBS News/YouGov poll of GOP primary likely voters:



1) Nothing in this result is surprising; GOP primary voters are who we thought they were.
2) This drives yet another nail into the coffin of those who think not-Trump can win this.

[Dave Gray]

If that poll is correctly measuring the electorate, you'd think that Desantis would be polling better.  His entire platform is against wokeness.  It's all he ever talks about.

[Spider-Dan]

It's not like Trump is pro-woke; DeSantis has to pound the table just to keep pace.

The bigger problem is the number 3 answer.  Why would someone who believes Trump won in 2020 vote for DeSantis?

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

It's not like Trump is pro-woke; DeSantis has to pound the table just to keep pace.

The bigger problem is the number 3 answer.  Why would someone who believes Trump won in 2020 vote for DeSantis?

DeSantis has never acknowledged that Biden won in 2020 and appointed an election denier to be Sec. State. 

I would say he hits all four boxes. 

[Spider-Dan]

I'm not saying that Tiny D (as many call him) is bucking orthodoxy on any of those four items; I'm saying Trump meets them better.

Furthermore, if DeSantis agrees that Trump actually won in 2020, his own argument for being the 2024 nominee evaporates into thin air.

[Dave Gray]

Of all of the things I've ever been angry about politically, Jan 6th (and the behavior that led up to it and the behavior of those around it and related to it) is the top.

I remember coming on here and saying it.  I was and am so fucking mad when I think about it.  I cannot fathom that an American President can do what he did and have any amount of support from anyone, even those (especially those) in his own party.  It's so far outside of what I consider to be acceptable and it is completely disqualifying.  It's what dictators do.  It's the antithesis of democracy.

You guys know how I feel so I'm not trying to relitigate that point.

But I mention it because it makes it hard to see Trump's political run objectively.  I try to divorce myself from those feelings and talk about policy differences and strategy vs. Desantis and who will endorse him and what states are in play, etc.  ...all that normal stuff that you weigh when looking at a candidate's run for office.  But I always fall back to thinking that Trump is essentially a terrorist who tried to overthrow democracy via violent coup.  I bounce back and forth about being mad at those that directly were involved, but also how much of a fragile system our democracy is.  I just assumed we would never let that happen, but it did, and we have.  A guy tried to overthrow the government, it didn't work, and now he's in the conversation to be president.  It's completely wild to me.

So, that's why I just can't count Desantis out.

Even though he seems be politically imploding, there has to be a Trump alternative for people who consider themselves on the right (be it fiscally, religious, or even the anti-woke types) but still think that you shouldn't be able to overthrow the democracy when you lose.

[Spider-Dan]

Even though he seems be politically imploding, there has to be a Trump alternative for people who consider themselves on the right (be it fiscally, religious, or even the anti-woke types) but still think that you shouldn't be able to overthrow the democracy when you lose.

Ron DeSantis himself does not believe Trump tried to overthrow democracy, and sees nothing wrong with Trump's actions on that day.  So on the particular topic of the Jan 6 insurrection, I'm not sure that DeSantis represents a meaningful distinction from Trump.

There is no place in the Republican Party for those who disapprove of Trump's actions on Jan 6.  There is no remotely viable GOP presidential candidate who has publicly called for accountability for Trump regarding his attempt to prevent the transition of power.

[Dave Gray]

Ron DeSantis himself does not believe Trump tried to overthrow democracy, and sees nothing wrong with Trump's actions on that day.  So on the particular topic of the Jan 6 insurrection, I'm not sure that DeSantis represents a meaningful distinction from Trump.

I can't believe I'm defending Desantis, but yes, there's a difference.

Desantis might be downplaying or denying that Trump tried to overthrow the government.  That's a shitty position.  He probably doesn't believe it or he's biding his time or he feels that it's a politically valuable position.  Downplaying someone trying to overthrow the government is definitely bad.

But it's not trying to overthrow the government yourself.

Not attacking someone for their crime isn't the same as committing the crime yourself.

[Dave Gray]

Also, I don't want to make this about Desantis, really.  He's just the #2 right now, but it could be anyone.

I mean...you could want no government assistance, anti Union, big military, prayer in school, anti regulations, pro gun, not think trans is a thing, against teaching civil rights struggle in school, against gay rights, etc. etc. ....all of the things that the GOP has been about on or off for the last 20 years.  Pick any or all of them.  ...you can be that and still think that Trump is a dangerous dictator-type who lost an election and tried to be president anyway and absolutely cannot vote for him because of that.

There must be a lot of those people who I am 100% ideologically against on issues, but we can agree that we should still vote and the loser not just install his own government through brute force anyway.  Those people will have a candidate on the ballot that isn't Trump.

[Spider-Dan]

You're saying you're angry about Jan 6, but saying that necessarily means you are not the target audience for the GOP presidential primary.  It's no different than saying you're upset about the GOP's attacks on trans people or their attempts to outlaw abortion.

I would also point out that DeSantis' endorsement of the stolen election lie means that if DeSantis is in office, you should expect the same dirty tricks from him as we saw from Trump in late 2020 and early 2021... just not executed in such a clumsy and buffoonish fashion.  The position of the Republican Party at this point is that Democratic rule is fundamentally illegitimate, so - just as Republicans learned from Watergate that you should never impeach your own, and just brazen it out instead - the GOP has learned from their mistakes in 2020 and will have processes in place for GOP state legislatures to "adjust" the outcomes so that Jan 6-style violence is not necessary.  It's the difference between invading the Capitol, and Bush v. Gore.

Ultimately, you are just splitting hairs in this primary.  The "reasonable conservative" who is angry about Jan 6 is not voting for the Trump sycophant who agrees that the 2020 election was stolen.  (If you believe the election was actually stolen, Jan 6 would be a rational and warranted response!)

[Dave Gray]

I'm not looking for a reasonable conservative.  That isn't even my bar.  I'm looking for someone who didn't already actively attempt a violent coup of the government in an illegal takeover.

It's a low bar.

[Spider-Dan]

But we aren't talking about candidates in this context; we're talking about voters.  And you aren't voting for any of these guys.

And that's the point: a voter like you, who is angry about Jan 6, would not consider voting for any of these guys, because one cannot be angry about Jan 6 and continue to vote for the Republican Party. Don't believe me? Ask any GOP primary voter how angry they are about Jan 6.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

But we aren't talking about candidates in this context; we're talking about voters.  And you aren't voting for any of these guys.

And that's the point: a voter like you, who is angry about Jan 6, would not consider voting for any of these guys, because one cannot be angry about Jan 6 and continue to vote for the Republican Party. Don't believe me? Ask any GOP primary voter how angry they are about Jan 6.

*I* will voting in the 2024 Republican presidential primary.  Just like I voted in the 2020 Republican presidential primary and the 2022 Republican governor primary.  Won't be voting Republican in the general.

[Phishfan]

*I* will voting in the 2024 Republican presidential primary.  Just like I voted in the 2020 Republican presidential primary and the 2022 Republican governor primary.  Won't be voting Republican in the general.

Sometimes I wish I could vote in the primary but I can't.