Who will be the GOP nominee?

[CF DolFan]

If the people you are talking to think Trump has lost popularity among the GOP, they are fringe outliers who are out-of-touch.

I love how you know so much more about Republicans than I do. How would you like if I started schooling you on the homeless and drug dealing in San Fran? hahaha

Was just listening to a national conservative broadcast and they were discussing how many people who have voted for Trump twice are reaching burnout with always having to defend him etc. and that he's already lost the independent soccer moms.

So your friends don't care about Trump's attempting to overthrow the election, his inciting a riot intent on killing his VP, or his violation the espionage act.  But they are switching to DeSantos because DeSantos is more extreme in his persecution of LBGT community than Trump.  

Yep. That's exactly what I said. LMAO .... go ahead and add that DeSantis is the Grand Wizard and orchestrated a clan meeting at WDW this past weekend.

[Spider-Dan]

I love how you know so much more about Republicans than I do.

How many Republicans do you know... 30?  50?  200?
I am neither offering nor concerned with the opinion of Republicans in Sanford, Florida.  I am talking about what Republicans all over the nation tell anyone who asks them about Donald Trump.

Consider that you and your neighbors, all Florida residents, may have both a higher opinion of DeSantis and a lower opinion of Trump than the rest of the Republicans in this country.

Was just listening to a national conservative broadcast and they were discussing how many people who have voted for Trump twice are reaching burnout with always having to defend him etc. and that he's already lost the independent soccer moms.

Being "tired of defending Trump" implies that one acknowledges that Trump has done bad things of significance.  But Trump defenders have never done that: it's always just locker room talk, or he's a salty sailor, or he was obviously joking, or it's another witch hunt.  So if y'all really believe all those things are true, why are you "reaching burnout" stating simple truths?

It's almost like you're getting tired of having to spin his obvious moral bankruptcy to justify your continued support of him.  Sounds rough!

[CF DolFan]

It's almost like you're getting tired of having to spin his obvious moral bankruptcy to justify your continued support of him.  Sounds rough!

Not your. I was tired of Trump a while ago. It's taken others longer to get there but I do se it happening regardless of the polls. Few polls have ever been true when Trump was involved.  Knowing Trump's charges are political isn't a defense of Trump as much as the system. He was investigated for 8 months and these charges filed while Hunter Biden has been under investigation for several years and crickets. In fact ... they are getting close to running out of time to be able to file charges on Hunter which would surely be a coincidence.


I will say it is interesting they charged Trump in Miami where his favorability is about 50/50. This should make for a decent jury pool.

[Spider-Dan]

Not your. I was tired of Trump a while ago.

But not so tired of him that you've actually stopped defending him:

It doesn't look good for him but it wouldn't be the first time things were fabricated against him.

The plain and simple reality is that after Trump wins the GOP primary, you'll be back to defending him as you have been for the last 7 years.  This is the true absurdity of the GOP primary: substantive criticism of Trump is forbidden by the GOP electorate, so you and yours are forced to resort to weak arguments about his controversial style instead of, say, his attempt to overthrow our system of government.

This is why you can't beat him.

[Spider-Dan]

I split off the Hunter Biden discussion as it has nothing to do with the GOP primary.

[CF DolFan]

Not big on polls but figured some of you would like these from CNN. Bottom line is Trump support is falling while DeSantis is staying steady. Unfortunately for both of them 23/21% percent of the GOP would not vote for either of them. LOL. I had a weird vision in where both Trump and Kennedy Jr run as independents and really screw up this election. hahaha



- 47% of Republicans and Republican-leaning registered voters say Trump is their first choice down from 53%

- Support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis held steady at 26% in the latest poll  with former Vice President Mike Pence at 9%, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley at 5%, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott at 4%, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 3% and the remaining candidates at 1% or less.

- In addition to the decline in support for Trump’s candidacy, his favorability rating among Republican-aligned voters has dipped, from 77% in May to 67% now, while the share who say they would not support him for the nomination under any circumstances has climbed, from 16% in May to 23% now. At the same time, there has been a similar increase in the share saying they would not back DeSantis under any circumstances (up 6 points to 21%).


https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/20/politics/cnn-poll-trump-indictment-republicans-2024/index.html

[Dave Gray]

I saw that Trump's polling dropped like 8% within the GOP, but I didn't see where it went.  It didn't look like anyone really grabbed the lot of the 8%.

I'm always telling my sister that whatever happens can happen super fast.  Even if it seems like Trump is untouchable, if he were to fall, it could happen within a matter of days.  It's like a house of cards.

[Spider-Dan]

That poll should be terrifying and humiliating for any DeSantis supporter.

It says that while 26% of Republicans have DeSantis as their first choice, 21% would not support him for the nomination under any circumstances.  And while the first number hasn't moved since May, the second number increased by over 1/3.

That's... a terrible trend for Tiny D.  If June goes the same way, DeSantis will have more voters who directly oppose him than he will have supporters!

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Polling data from June 24, 2015:

Jeb Bush 14%
Donald Trump 11%

A little early to call the race. 

[Sunstroke]

I still have a hard time believing that "any" republican actually believes that their candidate could be anyone but Donald Trump. Trump continues to tightly grip the GOP by the balls (and "when you're a star, they let you do it").  And as long as GOP politicians know that if Trump says "GOP politician X is a socialist...or a communist...or - gasp - a liberal), take your pick, that GOP politician will never win a major national election again...and that sort of career suicide just doesn't compute  ("Danger Senator Robinson, Danger!").

Until the moment comes that Trump's crimes don't allow him to run for President, there are no other candidates for the GOP. Period.

[CF DolFan]

That poll should be terrifying and humiliating for any DeSantis supporter.

It says that while 26% of Republicans have DeSantis as their first choice, 21% would not support him for the nomination under any circumstances.  And while the first number hasn't moved since May, the second number increased by over 1/3.

That's... a terrible trend for Tiny D.  If June goes the same way, DeSantis will have more voters who directly oppose him than he will have supporters!

LMAO … as much as you’d like that to be “humiliating” to me, a DeSantis supporter, I’ve said for while now that’s what will kill the GOP. There is a section of voters who will not vote for Trump and and there is a section that will only vote for Trump. This poll pretty much supports that theory.  The only hope I have is that we still have a ways to go but right now Biden is going to win again regardless of who the GOP puts up.

[Spider-Dan]

There is a section of voters who will not vote for Trump and and there is a section that will only vote for Trump. This poll pretty much supports that theory.

If it's any comfort, I think they're lying.  Once they are faced with the prospect of 4 more years of Joe Biden forcing their kids to be trans as he outlaws guns and the Bible, they will go to the polls and vote for Trump once again.

The major advantage that the right has over the left is that the right understands how to make their politicians bend to their will.  The left stupidly believes that voting for third-parties in the general election is the way to scare Democratic candidates, while the right correctly realizes that the way to scare Republicans is by voting for the most extreme candidates possible in the primary while consistently voting R in the general.

This is why the GOP primary is as it is: Republican primary voters have shown that they are happy to tank their chances in the general as long as they enforce strict discipline in the primaries.  The possibility of Trump being in prison doesn't reduce his ability to win the GOP primary at all because GOP primary voters don't care about fielding an "electable" candidate.  And this is why these primary attempts to run as Trump But Without The Baggage are hopeless: there is no constituency for that kind of candidate in the Republican Party.  Republican primary voters simply do not care about electability.

note: There is an exception here, in that while I think DeSantis/Haley/Ramaswamy/whatever voters will ultimately vote for Trump in the general, Trump's cultists may not vote for anyone else, and would happily for for Trump if he ran third-party.

[Phishfan]

Trump wins the general and we all pay the price. Fuck my life.

[CF DolFan]

If Trump doesn't win the primary there's little doubt he won't run as Independent. He's too much of a narcissist to give up. At a minimum he will want credit for not getting the GOP person elected because he was cheated.

It's no secret his family isn't a part of this election and it seems few who were supporting him before. Most people would have already opted out. He certainly isn't in a position to make enemies of whoever is going to be in office in 2024. 

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

Desantos etc.  Could get the MAGA wing in the general election but doing so would guarantee Biden all of the independents and moderates.  "The first thing I will do on Jan 20, 2025 is  issue pardons to President Trump and all persons changed in the protest on Jan 6."

Republicans have done absolutely nothing since Nov 3, 2020 to appeal to moderate/independents and plenty to drive them away.