Who will be the GOP nominee?

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

As of this morning:

Trump 50%
DeSantis 30%
Pence 6%
Haley 6%

This... is not close.
If DeSantis announces his candidacy, Trump is going to humiliate him; as I said before, Scott Walker 2.0.

at this point in polling 8 years ago Jeb Bush was the prohibitive favorite.

[CF DolFan]

As of this morning:

Trump 50%
DeSantis 30%
Pence 6%
Haley 6%

This... is not close.
If DeSantis announces his candidacy, Trump is going to humiliate him; as I said before, Scott Walker 2.0.

I haven't been seeing a 20% difference anywhere. In all the polls I see DeSantis comes out on top 7-12 percent depending on the poll. It's when you add in the other candidates that DeSantis is below Trump because DeSantis' get split while Trump does not and in none of them is Trump double digits higher.

All of this is pretty positive for the gov conseidering he hasn't even annnounced or hinted at a run.

[CF DolFan]

Today from Politico

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/florida-playbook/2023/02/23/poll-shows-edge-for-desantis-in-clash-with-trump-00084113

Lead for DeSantis — One new national poll of Republican primary voters from WPA Intelligence shared with Playbook, put DeSantis ahead of Trump, 40 percent to 31 percent, even when a long line of other Republicans such as former vice president Mike Pence were included. That lead for the GOP governor jumps dramatically to 55 percent to 37 percent in a direct DeSantis-Trump matchup.

[Dave Gray]

I heard Tim Scott is going to run.

He is using the words "return to civility" which seems to be a shot at Trump.  But when asked on Tucker what policy positions he would have different than Trump, he didn't list any and basically said how great Trump was.  In other words, it seemed like he was gonna take lane 3, but instead is getting into the crowded Trump-lite lane with Haley.  So, there's no path there for him.

CF said that these people are running for VP, and while a fair assessment, it doesn't explain Pence.  I don't know how he's polling, but everyone hates Pence.  Trump isn't going to choose him again, the Trumpers tried to kill him, the GOP base doesn't like him.  The moderates don't like him.  I don't see what he's thinking.

[CF DolFan]

It hard to say about Pence. People at this level, as well as celebrities, live in their own bubble and it's hard to try and out guess their perspective. Pence is loved by the Christian Right so maybe he thinks that would help him in another VP role. Hard to imagine he thinks he can win or would even want to work with Trump again.

I honestly feel the more the rest of the GOP gets to know Ron the more they will like him. He's become a rock star here in Florida where we do know him.

Just saw this

Ron DeSantis would win 2024 Republican primary between nine GOP rivals and would beat Trump by 24% in a head-to-head showdown, new poll of GOP voters reveal



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11787659/New-poll-Ron-DeSantis-wins-9-candidate-GOP-primary-field-40-support.html

[Phishfan]

I heard Tim Scott is going to run.

He is using the words "return to civility" which seems to be a shot at Trump.  But when asked on Tucker what policy positions he would have different than Trump, he didn't list any and basically said how great Trump was.  In other words, it seemed like he was gonna take lane 3, but instead is getting into the crowded Trump-lite lane with Haley.  So, there's no path there for him.

CF said that these people are running for VP, and while a fair assessment, it doesn't explain Pence.  I don't know how he's polling, but everyone hates Pence.  Trump isn't going to choose him again, the Trumpers tried to kill him, the GOP base doesn't like him.  The moderates don't like him.  I don't see what he's thinking.

Fuck him then. No swing voter considers anyone that doesn't head on Trump. Republicans better hear this message. I said when Hillary lost the  Democrats went with the next person up strategy and lost.  I suggested Biden would be better for that fight and got laughed at. I also said Obama would be the first serious black candidate and was laughed at because others had been in the primary.

[Spider-Dan]

I think CF would describe himself as a "DeSantis supporter."
CF has consistently stated that he strongly wants DeSantis to avoid taking on Trump directly, for fear of alienating Trump fans.
But why should DeSantis care about alienating Trump fans, who are ostensibly voting for Trump?  This tells you everything you need to know about the true state of today's Republican Party.  If DeSantis can't win the primary without Trump fans then he cannot win the primary, full stop.

For those who would say DeSantis is trying to preserve Trump fans' support in the general election: no matter how DeSantis were to beat Trump, if Trump loses the primary, he will definitely, 100%, without question try to turn his supporters against DeSantis in the general.  If you don't believe this, you are delusional.  Trump will be holding weekly rallies screaming that Corrupt Ron and the Deep State Swamp rigged the primary against him, all the way to Election Day.

The fact that DeSantis has not realized this and is refusing to bow out of the primary is a significant mark against his intelligence.

[CF DolFan]

I think CF would describe himself as a "DeSantis supporter."
CF has consistently stated that he strongly wants DeSantis to avoid taking on Trump directly, for fear of alienating Trump fans.
But why should DeSantis care about alienating Trump fans, who are ostensibly voting for Trump?  This tells you everything you need to know about the true state of today's Republican Party.  If DeSantis can't win the primary without Trump fans then he cannot win the primary, full stop.

For those who would say DeSantis is trying to preserve Trump fans' support in the general election: no matter how DeSantis were to beat Trump, if Trump loses the primary, he will definitely, 100%, without question try to turn his supporters against DeSantis in the general.  If you don't believe this, you are delusional.  Trump will be holding weekly rallies screaming that Corrupt Ron and the Deep State Swamp rigged the primary against him, all the way to Election Day.

The fact that DeSantis has not realized this and is refusing to bow out of the primary is a significant mark against his intelligence.

LOL ... I don't think it's a secret I'm a big DeSantis supporter.   There are some Trump supporters who would support Deantis in the election. My inlaws are huge Trump fans and want him back but they would support DeSantis if he wins. While I think some people are Trump or no one I really believe most would support the GOP nominee over Biden. In fact I would say most of the Trump supporters want Trump first and then DeSantis to win.

[Dave Gray]

he will definitely, 100%, without question try to turn his supporters against DeSantis in the general.  If you don't believe this, you are delusional. 

I would love if this were true, but this seems like something from the liberal wish list.

I wouldn't put it past Trump to do this, but the truth is that he would be in a considerably stronger position in his legal fights if the justice department were controlled by one of his own.  The pressure on Desantis from his supporters to lay off of Trump would be huge.

Trump would be incredibly stupid to lose to Desantis and then attack him and make him lose.

[Spider-Dan]

I wouldn't put it past Trump to do this, but the truth is that he would be in a considerably stronger position in his legal fights if the justice department were controlled by one of his own.

Trump is staring down criminal indictments in NY and GA.  DOJ can't help there.

Trump would be incredibly stupid to lose to Desantis and then attack him and make him lose.

Why yes, it would be incredibly stupid for Trump to put petty personal spitefulness and his own selfish ego over his long-term best interests.
I don't think that's the counterpoint you imply it is.

---

In other news, Jeb Bush has thrown his support behind DeSantis.  Perhaps Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney should also endorse Li'l Ronnie!  That will surely clinch the nomination.

[DenverFinFan]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-trump-desantis-top-2024-republican-preference.amp

Yesterday from fox, still a sizable lead for Mango Mussolini

[Phishfan]

Fuck Fox News and anyone that supports them. The head of the company admitted they spread false information. They have lost all credit as a News organization (I've shared for years it is commentary).

[dolphins4life]

DeSantis has taken the pandemic FAR less seriously than Trump.

Florida has the eighth-highest Covid rate per-capita in the USA

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109004/coronavirus-covid19-cases-rate-us-americans-by-state/

Yet, Trump has been bashed for his handling of the pandemic.

DeSantis has been widely praised for his handling of it. 

[Sunstroke]

Fuck Fox News and anyone that supports them. The head of the company admitted they spread false information. They have lost all credit as a News organization (I've shared for years it is commentary). 

I hear ya...and agree completely, but c'mon...this really can't come as any surprise to you at this point.

[DenverFinFan]

Fuck Fox News and anyone that supports them. The head of the company admitted they spread false information. They have lost all credit as a News organization (I've shared for years it is commentary).

For sure it’s nothing but a propaganda outlet but i the poll is still valid for republican nomination purposes.

A lot can happen but Trump has a sizable cult and it’s going to be a challenge for anyone to break his hold.