Homicides See Historic Decline In 2023 Despite Perceptions That Crime Is On Rise

[Spider-Dan]

After the pandemic brought historic spikes in murders, the U.S. is poised to finish the year with a historic drop in homicides and drops in other crime categories, a finding that conflicts with public perceptions that crime is on the rise, according to a recent analysis of criminal justice data.

Murders are down 12.8% over last year across more than 175 cities, according to criminal justice data analyzed by firm AH Analytics, with AH Analytics co-founder and data analyst Jeff Asher recently writing on Substack that the data suggests that U.S. murders are on pace to log “one of the fastest rates of decline ever recorded” this year.

Major cities, which some commentators have in recent years portrayed as overrun by crime, have seen significant declines in homicides, including double-digit declines in New York (11.42% as of Dec. 24), Los Angeles (15.45% as of Dec. 23) and Chicago (12.7% as of Dec. 27), per the AH Analytics murder dashboard, drawing from local law enforcement data across the country.

Recently released preliminary third-quarter data from the FBI also shows that seven of eight categories of violent crimes and property crimes were down in cities of all sizes over the first three quarters of 2023—with the exception of car thefts.

While it’s difficult to pinpoint exact causes for crime trends, U.S. Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco told ABC News that she believed increased federal support to law enforcements targeting illegal guns has helped drive murders down, while other law enforcement officials across the country cited increased officer patrols.

The findings come as a recent Gallup poll shows that more than 77% of Americans believe that there is more crime than there was a year ago.

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The economy is "terrible" and crime is "rampant," no matter what the facts on the ground say.  This is the failure (or success, if we're being honest) of the media to accurately inform the public; instead, they accept Fox News talking points as valid journalistic points of inquiry.

[CF DolFan]

All I know is two of my friends who visit NY every Christmas for a few weeks said this was their last year. One used to live in Brooklyn and has family there. They personally have grown disgusted by the filth and crime they saw and were told about. They said it's worse than before Giuliani cleaned it up.

With that said crime almost always goes down following an increase in arrest rates. Since New York doesn't arrest most people I find that hard to believe that overall crime has fallen there very much.

[Spider-Dan]

Since New York doesn't arrest most people I find that hard to believe that overall crime has fallen there very much.

This is exactly what I'm talking about: since you already believe that liberals are soft on crime and won't arrest criminals, you then conclude that NY's crime rate must therefore be high.

The part that doesn't make sense is that all these liberal crime-infested hellscapes were still controlled by Democrats during the Age of Trump.  So why would crime rates have been any different under Trump than they were under Obama or Biden?  The strong and patriotic red states are still arresting as many people as the jails can hold while Biden is in office, and the woke Marxist blue states were still openly permitting crime while Trump was in office, right?  So the crime rate should be about the same no matter who's in the Oval Office.

[bsmooth]

The FBI data shows violent crime trending down, except robbery, which ticked up slightly.

https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend