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Author Topic: In hindsight, was doing Hard Knocks perhaps a mistake?  (Read 1777 times)
Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #15 on: January 23, 2024, 09:46:23 am »

I love fan articles. "end sarcasm"  Just this morning a Bills friend of mine reached out to discuss the fan fiction of trading Tua to Denver, us getting Justin Fileds etc. Tua led the league in passing, has consistently gotten better each season, and yet silly fans want to act like he's Zach Wilson. He has some weaknesses but history says he will be working on them all off season and at a minimum deserves time to prove he has plateaued to a point we cannot win it all with him.  

If you don't put credence in fan articles, then consider this from a former player, which essentially echoes the fan article:

https://twitter.com/EmmanuelAcho/status/1734716340693524858?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1734716340693524858%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

This stuff is not hard to see.  When your approach to running an NFL team is an outlier, it'll be clearly evident to anyone who examines the issue.
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CF DolFan
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« Reply #16 on: January 23, 2024, 10:00:35 am »

If you don't put credence in fan articles, then consider this from a former player, which essentially echoes the fan article:

https://twitter.com/EmmanuelAcho/status/1734716340693524858?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1734716340693524858%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

This stuff is not hard to see.  When your approach to running an NFL team is an outlier, it'll be clearly evident to anyone who examines the issue.
Doesn't mean much to me either. People had this "opinion" before. They disappeared while we were winning, like you did, but couldn't wait to find something to stick their negative opinions to. We lost to KC in the playoffs in subzero weather with an amplified amount of injuries. Life could be much worse.
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Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #17 on: January 23, 2024, 10:10:16 am »

Doesn't mean much to me either. People had this "opinion" before. They disappeared while we were winning, like you did, but couldn't wait to find something to stick their negative opinions to. We lost to KC in the playoffs in subzero weather with an amplified amount of injuries. Life could be much worse.

I don't think you have any idea how I function on the basis of my pattern of posting alone.  There could be many explanations for that.  Your preferred explanation is nothing more than a Rorschach response about yourself.
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Spider-Dan
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« Reply #18 on: January 23, 2024, 12:41:26 pm »

If you object to the characterization of your posting patterns, then stop disappearing after wins and magically resurfacing after losses.  Pretty simple.

This is the third? fourth? time you've cited the same Emmanuel Acho post.  You seem to be presenting him as an insightful commentator; do you agree with the multiple and varied opinions he has offered on, say, Tua, or should we only listen to Acho on the rare occasions where he's dumping on the Dolphins?
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Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #19 on: January 23, 2024, 02:56:57 pm »

If you object to the characterization of your posting patterns, then stop disappearing after wins and magically resurfacing after losses.  Pretty simple.

This is the third? fourth? time you've cited the same Emmanuel Acho post.  You seem to be presenting him as an insightful commentator; do you agree with the multiple and varied opinions he has offered on, say, Tua, or should we only listen to Acho on the rare occasions where he's dumping on the Dolphins?

The video above consisted of multiple and varied opinions.  Acho praised McDaniel fairly heavily for his technical brilliance at the same time he questioned the effect of his coaching style on the team culture.
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Dave Gray
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« Reply #20 on: January 24, 2024, 09:01:45 am »

I don't understand the criticism of team culture.  It seems that our culture is great.  The team is happy to play for each other and we met or over-achieved what was predicted.  We were the victims of our own early success.

We did lose the Titans game, which was a weird collapse.  But short of that, we didn't lose any games we were favored and we won a few where we weren't.  On top of that, we were incredibly injured this year, which was just bad luck.  And it's just likely that these teams that finished ahead of us were just better teams.  And that's OK.  Build on it.
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Pappy13
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« Reply #21 on: January 24, 2024, 10:43:42 am »

I do think a team takes on characteristics of it's head coach especially if he's a decent head coach. But it doesn't end there, teams also take on the characteristics of it's top players as well, so you need your stars to step up and pull their weight as well. I love McDaniels style, but there needs to be some top players that require accountability and to an extent I think Miami has some of that, but they need more, but some of that comes with having a bit of success. Miami has just recently started to have a bit of success, now we need to build on that. Success doesn't happen in a year, it happens over multiple years, with continued success. I mean sure you see some teams that have success after not haveing any for a while, but those are not the teams you want to emulate, no you want to emulate those teams that are consistently good. Several years in a row of making the playoffs. That way making the playoffs isn't the goal, that's to be expected. Success in the playoffs is how you want to be measured, but the first step to that is making the playoffs every year. We've done that the last couple of years and I'm happy about that. Sure, I'm in a hurry to take the next step of having success in the playoffs now, but I'll temper that with the fact that getting to the playoffs is starting to become a habit. You have to walk before you can run. At least we are walking now, wasn't long ago that we were crawling. Let's not take a step back trying to take another step forward. You have to give head coaches that have tasted a little bit of success time to see if they can develop to even better head coaches. McDaniels is still learning and the team is still learning with him. Give McDaniels time to develop and also time to develop the team.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2024, 10:47:09 am by Pappy13 » Logged

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Dave Gray
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« Reply #22 on: January 24, 2024, 01:02:26 pm »

One other thing: Someone has to lose.

Our big losses were Chiefs, Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Eagles.  ....two of these are in the Championship game and the others were right there at the door.  Maybe they're just better teams than we are and it's close but we didn't get it done.
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Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #23 on: January 25, 2024, 11:17:49 am »

I don't understand the criticism of team culture.  It seems that our culture is great.  The team is happy to play for each other and we met or over-achieved what was predicted.  We were the victims of our own early success.

We did lose the Titans game, which was a weird collapse.  But short of that, we didn't lose any games we were favored and we won a few where we weren't.  On top of that, we were incredibly injured this year, which was just bad luck.  And it's just likely that these teams that finished ahead of us were just better teams.  And that's OK.  Build on it.

The average number of points the Dolphins lost by to the teams they played with winning records on the season (including the win against Dallas) -- OVER AND ABOVE THE CLOSING POINT SPREAD -- was 13.6.

When the Dolphins played a winning team in 2024, they lost by nearly two touchdowns more than expected, on average.

In my opinion that's strongly indicative of a culture in which the team is overwhelmed and overpowered by the good teams it faces.  Label that culture whatever you'd like -- "soft" or what have you -- but it certainly isn't good.

And before that's blamed on injuries, consider that the expected margins in those games considered the injuries that were present for both teams before those games.
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CF DolFan
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« Reply #24 on: January 25, 2024, 11:30:06 am »

The average number of points the Dolphins lost by to the teams they played with winning records on the season (including the win against Dallas) -- OVER AND ABOVE THE CLOSING POINT SPREAD -- was 13.6.

When the Dolphins played a winning team in 2024, they lost by nearly two touchdowns more than expected, on average.

In my opinion that's strongly indicative of a culture in which the team is overwhelmed and overpowered by the good teams it faces.  Label that culture whatever you'd like -- "soft" or what have you -- but it certainly isn't good.

And before that's blamed on injuries, consider that the expected margins in those games considered the injuries that were present for both teams before those games.
What you call culture is what many of us label as a weak ass offensive line that failed miserably against good physical teams. We were basically last in the league on third down &1 yard to go which means we can't run when they know we are going to run. They were also one of the worst at pass blocking but thanks to Tua and Mike they came off much better than they actually were. Culture had nothing to do with it. Our O-line is just as untalented as it was before Mike came here but he is doing his best to make some lemonade.
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Dave Gray
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« Reply #25 on: January 25, 2024, 12:00:56 pm »

The average number of points the Dolphins lost by to the teams they played with winning records on the season (including the win against Dallas) -- OVER AND ABOVE THE CLOSING POINT SPREAD -- was 13.6.

When the Dolphins played a winning team in 2024, they lost by nearly two touchdowns more than expected, on average.

In my opinion that's strongly indicative of a culture in which the team is overwhelmed and overpowered by the good teams it faces.  Label that culture whatever you'd like -- "soft" or what have you -- but it certainly isn't good.

And before that's blamed on injuries, consider that the expected margins in those games considered the injuries that were present for both teams before those games.

This is a fair hypothesis, but it's not one I'm ready to make just yet.  I think we had some deeper personnel issues and we were able to rise above it pretty well.  I'd like to roll with what we are doing for more time before I attribute that to a longer cultural problem.
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Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #26 on: January 25, 2024, 12:55:21 pm »

What you call culture is what many of us label as a weak ass offensive line that failed miserably against good physical teams. We were basically last in the league on third down &1 yard to go which means we can't run when they know we are going to run. They were also one of the worst at pass blocking but thanks to Tua and Mike they came off much better than they actually were. Culture had nothing to do with it. Our O-line is just as untalented as it was before Mike came here but he is doing his best to make some lemonade.

The closing point spread is generated by what's expected from the two teams on the basis of their past performance, along with what's expected in their game against each other.  An offensive line that performed well enough against poorer teams to have the Dolphins' expected margin of defeat against better teams be on average 13.6 fewer points than was actually seen in those games against better teams would certainly indicate a culture problem.  The offensive line -- just like the rest of the team -- is performing far worse than expected against better teams.
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Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #27 on: January 25, 2024, 12:57:44 pm »

This is a fair hypothesis, but it's not one I'm ready to make just yet.  I think we had some deeper personnel issues and we were able to rise above it pretty well.  I'd like to roll with what we are doing for more time before I attribute that to a longer cultural problem.

Consider as well that the Dolphins were the 8th-best offense in the league in EPA per play in weeks 14 through 19 -- their late-season push and the wildcard -- in the first halves of those games, yet 29th-best in the league offensively in the second halves of those games.  So unless they underwent a magical transformation in their skill and ability at the halves of those games, they have a culture problem consisting of the inability to match or overcome teams that are bearing down on them in the second halves of games, during both teams' late-season push for the playoffs.  Their opponent goes into the locker room and becomes galvanized and redoubles their efforts, whereas the Dolphins are incapable of doing so themselves and are subsequently manhandled.  That's a culture problem.
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masterfins
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« Reply #28 on: January 25, 2024, 02:05:17 pm »

Consider as well that the Dolphins were the 8th-best offense in the league in EPA per play in weeks 14 through 19 -- their late-season push and the wildcard -- in the first halves of those games, yet 29th-best in the league offensively in the second halves of those games.  So unless they underwent a magical transformation in their skill and ability at the halves of those games, they have a culture problem consisting of the inability to match or overcome teams that are bearing down on them in the second halves of games, during both teams' late-season push for the playoffs.  Their opponent goes into the locker room and becomes galvanized and redoubles their efforts, whereas the Dolphins are incapable of doing so themselves and are subsequently manhandled.  That's a culture problem.

It's almost like they go into a play not to lose, or just keep it close mentality; but when they needed to turn it on there was nothing there.  If I went back and looked at my Shame of the Game picks I'd bet I chose McDaniel or Tua for the losses.  Poor play calling and poor execution.  I wouldn't say it's a "culture" problem per se, they just need an OC to step in and call the plays.
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CF DolFan
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« Reply #29 on: January 25, 2024, 02:44:50 pm »

The closing point spread is generated by what's expected from the two teams on the basis of their past performance, along with what's expected in their game against each other.  An offensive line that performed well enough against poorer teams to have the Dolphins' expected margin of defeat against better teams be on average 13.6 fewer points than was actually seen in those games against better teams would certainly indicate a culture problem.  The offensive line -- just like the rest of the team -- is performing far worse than expected against better teams.
I've heard this mentioned on gambling shows more than once. Sportsbooks like to have as close to an even amount of action on each side of a bet. This means that regardless of who wins, they will make a profit on the commission they charge, which is the cut the sportsbook takes of every bet before it is paid out. It really doesn't have much to do with past performances as much as public opinion of expectations. This is why professional gamblers win and the average person doesn't. Professional gamblers are paying attention to injuries, weather, and other variables while most people are betting their feelings based on how well they did last week.
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