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Author Topic: 2023 Dolphins OL ranked 31st in pass block win rating according to ESPN  (Read 756 times)
Spider-Dan
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« on: January 24, 2024, 04:07:18 pm »

Here you go.

And how did Miami's disappointing, mediocre QB perform with this god-awful line?

1st in Pass Yards (4,624)
2nd in YPA (8.3)
5th in comp % (69.3%)
t-5th in TD Passes (29)
5th in passer rating (101.1)

Yep, Tua is definitely the problem.  The Dolphins need to trade for Kyler Murray or Kirk Cousins or something.
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CF DolFan
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cf_dolfan
« Reply #1 on: January 24, 2024, 06:20:45 pm »

Here you go.

And how did Miami's disappointing, mediocre QB perform with this god-awful line?

1st in Pass Yards (4,624)
2nd in YPA (8.3)
5th in comp % (69.3%)
t-5th in TD Passes (29)
5th in passer rating (101.1)

Yep, Tua is definitely the problem.  The Dolphins need to trade for Kyler Murray or Kirk Cousins or something.
We were 32nd in the league on 3rd and 1 while the 49ers are 1st. Tua wasn't getting a whole lotta help.
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masterfins
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« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2024, 08:44:22 am »

The O-line certainly had issues because of all the injuries, and therefore lots of different player combinations; but they did a decent job and I question these contrived statistical metrics. A great QB overcomes obstacles, Tua just isn't a great QB.  He's a good QB and I'd keep him around, but unless he learns how to come through in big games he'll always just be average.
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CF DolFan
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cf_dolfan
« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2024, 09:48:06 am »

The O-line certainly had issues because of all the injuries, and therefore lots of different player combinations; but they did a decent job and I question these contrived statistical metrics. A great QB overcomes obstacles, Tua just isn't a great QB.  He's a good QB and I'd keep him around, but unless he learns how to come through in big games he'll always just be average.
LOL ... he made the offensive line look decent when they were one of the worst. I'd say that's pretty damn good. We haven't had a decent offensive line since we ran Richie Incognito out of town but we have had a bunch of guys who won't offend others.
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masterfins
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« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2024, 12:04:33 pm »

LOL ... he made the offensive line look decent when they were one of the worst. I'd say that's pretty damn good. We haven't had a decent offensive line since we ran Richie Incognito out of town but we have had a bunch of guys who won't offend others.

Tyreek, Waddle, Mostert and Achane made Tua look good, not Tua making the O-line look good.  Or do you think somehow it was due to Tua, and not the O-line, that had more to do with Mostert having a career year?
« Last Edit: January 25, 2024, 12:07:25 pm by masterfins » Logged
Dave Gray
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« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2024, 12:24:10 pm »

I think that Tua helped the line, for sure.  Well...him and the way that the offense was configured to take advantage of Tua's ability to run quick reads.

Mostert had a great year, too.  I think some of that is run blocking, but it's also the types of looks...we did lots of motions and stuff to help mask the run.
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masterfins
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« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2024, 01:55:23 pm »

^^^ I think Tua was greatly improved this year, I hope he can improve even more next year.
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CF DolFan
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cf_dolfan
« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2024, 03:02:48 pm »

Tyreek, Waddle, Mostert and Achane made Tua look good, not Tua making the O-line look good.  Or do you think somehow it was due to Tua, and not the O-line, that had more to do with Mostert having a career year?

Have you been watching the games? Dolphins runners are fast. They do their best when they string out defenses and cut back to an open hole or we are playing a weak defensive line. It isn't the offensive line opening holes for them to run through. This is easier to run for a bad offensive line. Our offensive line is bad so we do zone blocking. we can't win one on ones. When it's 3rd and 1 they put 8 in the box we can't run because our offensive line can't move anyone. I think it was Omar that said we were near the bottom of the league for yardage between the tackles. 

With that said even with all our passing yards we ranked 31 out of 32 teams for pass blocking. It's amazing to me anyone who has watched the Dolphins can't see that our o-line is still pretty bad. 

 
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Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2024, 07:07:29 pm »

In the 2019 season the correlation between pass block win rate and passer rating, league-wide, was 0.28.  That means 92.2% of the variance in passer rating across the league was unexplained by pass block win rate.

In other words, pass block win rate has little to do with how well NFL teams pass the ball.
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Spider-Dan
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« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2024, 07:10:26 pm »

In the 2019 season the correlation between pass block win rate and passer rating, league-wide, was 0.28.  That means 92.2% of the variance in passer rating across the league was unexplained by pass block win rate.

In other words, pass block win rate has little to do with how well teams pass the ball.
It's somewhat amusing to see your arguments oscillate from "we must account for the statistical correlation between pass block win rate and passer rating" to "the team is losing because pre-planned touchdown celebrations show they aren't serious" and back again.

Did this statistical analysis of pass block win rate vs. passer rating account for how much trash talking the wide receivers were doing?
« Last Edit: January 25, 2024, 07:12:15 pm by Spider-Dan » Logged

Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2024, 07:15:32 pm »

It's somewhat amusing to see your arguments oscillate from "we must account for the statistical correlation between pass block win rate and passer rating" to "the team is losing because pre-planned touchdown celebrations show they aren't serious" and back again.

Did this statistical analysis of pass block win rate vs. passer rating account for how much trash talking the wide receivers were doing?

Yeah, I'm good at more than one thing.  Thanks.
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Spider-Dan
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« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2024, 07:23:59 pm »

To put it another way:

If you're going to pettifog the 31st-ranked pass block win rate because you think its statistical correlation with passer rating is too weak to be meaningful, you shouldn't expect to be taken seriously when you fixate on choreographed touchdown celebrations, a factor you have never even attempted to offer statistical support for.
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Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2024, 07:24:57 pm »

To put it another way:

If you're going to pettifog the 31st-ranked pass block win rate because you think its statistical correlation with passer rating is too weak to be meaningful, you shouldn't expect to be taken seriously when you fixate on choreographed touchdown celebrations, a factor you have never even attempted to offer statistical support for.

This thread is all about your statistical presentation.  Why are you trying to broaden it beyond that?  Couldn't be because the statistic you've chosen is virtually meaningless in relation to the variable you're relating it to, could it?
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Spider-Dan
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« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2024, 08:28:49 pm »

I am pointing out that your dedication to rigorous statistical correlation is, shall we say, highly conditional.

When I point out that the OL pass blocking was absolutely terrible in 2023, you're quickly digging through stats to trivialize that fact.
But when you're insisting that the team is losing because the coach is unserious, you expect everyone else to just take that claim at face value.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2024, 08:31:42 pm by Spider-Dan » Logged

Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #14 on: January 26, 2024, 01:20:33 am »

I am pointing out that your dedication to rigorous statistical correlation is, shall we say, highly conditional.

When I point out that the OL pass blocking was absolutely terrible in 2023, you're quickly digging through stats to trivialize that fact.
But when you're insisting that the team is losing because the coach is unserious, you expect everyone else to just take that claim at face value.

In either case statistical data are used to generate a conclusion consistent with the data.  In this case the conclusion most consistent with the data is that pass block win rate has little to do with how well or poorly teams pass the ball.  In the other case mentioned the conclusion most consistent with the data is a Dolphins culture problem.

It isn't written anywhere that a conclusion generated by statistical data must itself be a number.  Stick a thermometer under your tongue for enough time for a reliable measurement.  If the measurement is 102 degrees for example, the conclusion most consistent with the data is that you have "a fever."  That conclusion isn't itself a number -- it's a qualitative description, just as is "a culture problem."
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