Now is the time to sit Tua

[Sibster]

Can the Dolphins afford to not have him on the team next year?

Not really but if Ewers plays well, they can easily keep Tua on the bench next year.  His big cap hit will come off the books in 2027.

[Pappy13]

It's official. It only makes sense and I'm glad that McDaniel understands that. The article seems to indicate this is the end of the road for Tua and the Dolphins, but I'm not buying that. If that were the case, wouldn't it make more sense to start Wilson since he's been the backup to Tua all year? No, this is a tryout for Ewers to see if he's gonna be on the team next year or not. I still fully believe Tua will return next year, but he won't be penciled in as the starter for 17 weeks in my opinion. He'll probably start the year, but I think they will be grooming his successor and if they feel the time is right for a change they'll make it next year. Could be that if Ewers play well enough for the next couple of games that Ewers will be the backup next year and Wilson will be gone and it might even be an open QB competition between Ewers and Tua in pre-season, but that's getting ahead of ourselves, we first have to see how Ewers plays.

https://nypost.com/2025/12/17/sports/tua-tagovailoa-benched-as-dolphins-career-suddenly-at-risk/

And make no mistake, if Ewers doesn't play well in the next couple of games, Miami needs to get a replacement for Tua in the draft or in free agency. I don't necessarily mean that replacement has to play in 2026 instead of Tua, but he at least needs to be on the team and competing for the QB position with Tua so that's he's ready to start in 2027. Under no conditions should Tua be on the team in 2027 unless he suddenly turns into Mahomes or Allen.

This might also determine whether or not McDaniel stays in 2026. If Ewers comes in and plays well enough for the Dolphins to win a couple more games, then why not keep McDaniel around for another year and see what happens? If it all goes to shit in 2026, then the new GM gets rid of Tua and McDaniel and starts with a clean slate and enough cap space to rebuild. If Ewers tanks in the next couple of games then maybe it's McDaniel's last year with the Dolphins and the total rebuild starts in 2026. This isn't about Tua, it's about determining the path forward.

[Spider-Dan]

Keep in mind that drafting a QB in 2026 (instead of 2027) means that you are wasting a valuable year of the QB's rookie pay scale with Tua's contract still on the books.

There have been multiple recent examples of rookie QBs coming into the league and having immediate (if not necessarily sustained) success.  So it's not like it's mandatory to have a QB come in and sit for a year.

[Pappy13]

Keep in mind that drafting a QB in 2026 (instead of 2027) means that you are wasting a valuable year of the QB's rookie pay scale with Tua's contract still on the books.

There have been multiple recent examples of rookie QBs coming into the league and having immediate (if not necessarily sustained) success.  So it's not like it's mandatory to have a QB come in and sit for a year.

That's a fair point, but there's also been a couple of examples of rookie QB's needing more than a year to get acclimated to the NFL before they start producing. A lot of teams haven't given rookie QB's enough time to grow into the position and they found more success at their next stop. I'd actually like to give a rookie QB a year of learning the offense and learning the speed of play at the next level before being thrown to the wolves. That might not be necessary if you get a QB through free agency but then they likely aren't on a rookie contract either so not really much to be gained there either.

[Sibster]

The problem is, the QB crop in this draft class isn't that good.   I say focus on fixing your trenches this draft.   You're gonna get a relatively high draft pick for not making the playoffs.  Why not trade down a bit and pick up an extra pick?  That's an extra chunk of O-Line beef right there.   

Fix your trenches and defensive secondary.  Roll next year with Ewers and Tua ready to go if Ewers either sucks or goes down.   Then if the results are the same as this year, get your franchise QB in 2027 and your lines are ready to go.

[Spider-Dan]

That's a fair point, but there's also been a couple of examples of rookie QB's needing more than a year to get acclimated to the NFL before they start producing. A lot of teams haven't given rookie QB's enough time to grow into the position and they found more success at their next stop. I'd actually like to give a rookie QB a year of learning the offense and learning the speed of play at the next level before being thrown to the wolves.

NE and CHI threw their QBs to the wolves and it doesn't seem to have hurt them too much.  If MIA is going to give up on being competitive, then you might as well maximize the upside of such a move (lots of cap space).  It doesn't make sense to give up on being competitive AND keep a bloated cap.

It also seems relevant to mention at this point that rookie QBs that went on to find more success at their next stop did so because their original team gave up on them and/or refused to pay them, which seems like the opposite of the problem that most Dolphin fans are complaining about this season.

[Pappy13]

If MIA is going to give up on being competitive, then you might as well maximize the upside of such a move (lots of cap space).  It doesn't make sense to give up on being competitive AND keep a bloated cap.

I don't follow. How is drafting a Tua replacement giving up on being competitive?

[Pappy13]

The problem is, the QB crop in this draft class isn't that good.

That actually might play into the Dolphins hand though. The Dolphins are not going to get a top draft choice, but there's no reason that you have to draft your QB in the 1st round. There are QB's in the draft that might be good 2nd or 3rd round picks and the Dolphins have those. The key is in picking the right QB which is what a good GM is paid to do. Anyone can pick a QB in the first 5 picks, it takes skill to find a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round. That's what I'm asking of the new GM. Now, he may not get it right on his first try, I realize that but then that's the job that your coach is paid to do to figure out if you picked the right QB or not. If not, try again the following year and keep doing that until you find one. Too often QB's are either expected to start as rookies or they are considered a bust but that's only true if you pick one in the top of round 1. Pick a QB in rounds 2-7 and you can afford to sit him on the bench for a year and see how he progresses. By the end of their rookie season you should at least know if you need to pick another one the following year or not. We've already started that process with Ewers in the last draft. Now is the time to find out if we need to do that again or we think Ewers is a potential Tua replacement.

This is what you do with every OTHER position other than QB. Why not QB?

[Spider-Dan]

I don't follow. How is drafting a Tua replacement giving up on being competitive?

Drafting a prospect QB with the explicit intention to sit him, when you believe no other QB on your roster is viable, is "giving up on being competitive."

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/tLp8hDOCS6E

[masterfins]

I'm glad Ewers is getting a shot, but I hope he won't be judged on just these three games.  Rookies with entire seasons don't always impress their 1st year, heck look at how many opportunities Tua has been given.  Miami does have a shot at finishing 3-0; Cincinnati has been eliminated and are leaving the cold so maybe they just come down and enjoy the weather.  Tampa is not a great team, but they are battling to win their division.  New England will most likely not be playing for anything, but it will be a cold weather game.  Furthermore, New England is not as good as their record suggests, they have been playing easy teams just like Miami, only they have gone out and executed.

[Pappy13]

Drafting a prospect QB with the explicit intention to sit him....

In that scenario, Tua would stay for 2026.

...when you believe no other QB on your roster is viable, is "giving up on being competitive."

That's not the scenario I described. Tua is a completely viable QB, the problem is that his contract is not. If he was making 25 million for the next 2 years you wouldn't *need* to replace him. QB play is not the only problem the Dolphins have, but the QB's contract is absolutely preventing the Dolphins from addressing the rest of the roster the way it needs to be addressed. That's the problem and the only solution is to get rid of that contract but you can't realistically do that until 2027. There's only 2 real options here, cut Tua and take the 99 million cap hit over the next 2 years which completely prevents your team from addressing any of the problems for at least a year or keep Tua for 2026. If you keep him and he's the best QB on the roster you play him (I'm assuming he's not going to get significantly worse in one year). If he's not the best QB on the roster you play whomever is. That's not giving up on being competitive (If it were that means you think Miami gave up on being competitive this year), that's making the best of the situation that you find yourself in.

[Spider-Dan]

Tua is a completely viable QB, the problem is that his contract is not. If he was making 25 million for the next 2 years you wouldn't *need* to replace him.

This is crazy talk.  It is absolutely insane to bench a QB because he's making too much money.  That's like saying if Tua restructures his contract, suddenly he's the starting QB again!

Any (aspiring to be) competitive team with a QB that is not on his rookie deal will have roughly the same amount of cap tied up in their QB as MIA does.  Despite all the screaming from fans about FIFTY TWO MILLION DOLLARS, the problem is not his contract... it's his play.  If he were playing exactly as he is now at half the price, the team would not be meaningfully better off.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

This is crazy talk.  It is absolutely insane to bench a QB because he's making too much money.  That's like saying if Tua restructures his contract, suddenly he's the starting QB again!

Any (aspiring to be) competitive team with a QB that is not on his rookie deal will have roughly the same amount of cap tied up in their QB as MIA does.  Despite all the screaming from fans about FIFTY TWO MILLION DOLLARS, the problem is not his contract... it's his play.  If he were playing exactly as he is now at half the price, the team would not be meaningfully better off.

Benching him and keeping him on the books for the remainder of his contract would be insane. 

Replacing him because of his price tag makes perfect sense. 

Keeping him if he is willing to take a wage cut also makes sense. 

He is a good but not elite QB.  He is good enough to be part of a Superbowl winning team in which the stars of the team are 2 guys on defense and the tight end or running back is the star of the offense. 

He is not good enough to carry the team.  But the Dolphins are paying like he can carry the team.  If he was being paid what he is worth the Dolphins could afford a much better team around him. 

So to an extant claim "Tau is not the problem, it is the other players on the team" is true.  But Tau is the problem because the Dolphins can't afford to build the rest of the team with his contract. 

If he was a Mariano type player that can win even with a weak supporting cast than pay him like that.  But he is more of a Jim McMahon type player so you need enough money left over to afford the Refrigerator

So yes, if he is cut or traded the next team might have better success with him, if he comes at a lower price tag and the they give him a supporting cast. 

Grier really screwed you guys over.  Not just with Tua but with several over bloated contracts. 
   

[Dolfanalyst]

With Tua playing at this level:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

...the Dolphins would need one of the most stifling defenses in history to compete for a Super Bowl.  Assembling and maintinaing such a defense is obviously highly unlikely.

People talk about what a QB "needs around him" to win, and that's all well and good.  But you have to consider as well how likely it is to assemble and maintain such surroundings.

Ryan Tannehill had a couple good years in Tennessee when the stars aligned around him.  But if it's difficult to maintain the stars in such an alignment because of injuries, free agency, trades, retirements, coaching changes, etc., it speaks to the QB's inadequate ability.

The Chiefs won a Super Bowl in 2020 with a mediocre defense.  That's because, in sharp contrast with Tua this year, this is where Patrick Mahomes and the pass offense were functioning:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/season/2020/seasontype/2