Should Tua stay or should he go?

[Sibster]

Are you talking about Malik Willis...or Sam Darnold?

Sam Darnold just won a Super Bowl

[Spider-Dan]

That's the point.

Darnold has been in the league for EIGHT years, and after his first 4 years he was clearly terrible.  But by your logic:

He's been in the league four years.   At that point, there's no more "development curve", you either have it or you don't.   And he clearly doesn't.

So why does this logic apply to Malik Willis after four years, but not Sam Darnold after four years?

[CF DolFan]

I think Willis will want too much money. After his successful GB stint, there will be several teams looking to sign him and will gladly overpay him to get a QB. I don't think we are in position to get into a bidding war with someone who is a long shot. I will say this though, Coach Hafley and Sully has seen him more than anyone else in recent years. He ran the scout team against Hafley and then as a back-up so if they do, then they have full confidence in him.

[Pappy13]

Now that people are talking about Willis' asking price to be around $30M, I'd rather they bring back Tua than bring in Willis. The only way I can see the Dolphins bringing in Willis or another high priced FA QB is if Tua is traded and someone is willing to pick up the majority of his contract. If that happens, then perhaps Willis or another high priced QB would work, but barring that just draft a rookie or get a bottom of the barrel QB off the scrap heap to compete with Ewers next year.

[Pappy13]

I think I'd have to consider a team taking Tua for a 1st round draft choice, if they are going to pick up his entire contract. That would remove $99M off the books for the cost of a 1st round draft choice. That seems reasonable to me. It would suck to lose that 1st round draft choice, but the rebuild gets a lot easier without Tua's contract. 1st round draft choices are hit and miss, that $99M is a sure thing. It would essentially mean that 2026 wouldn't necessarily be a wasted year, the rebuild would start in 2026, rather than really starting in 2027. I think that's worth a 1st round pick.

What do you think?

One team considered taking Tua Tagovailoa in trade with a Miami first round pick

[masterfins]

If another team was going to take Tua and the guaranteed $54 million he is owed, for their 1st round draft pick I would do it.  Like Pappy said draft picks can be a hit or miss.  The Jets need a QB he could go there; not to mention with the cold weather and that field in NJ he wouldn't hurt the Dolphins.

[Downunder Dolphan]

I think I'd have to consider a team taking Tua for a 1st round draft choice, if they are going to pick up his entire contract. That would remove $99M off the books for the cost of a 1st round draft choice. That seems reasonable to me. It would suck to lose that 1st round draft choice, but the rebuild gets a lot easier without Tua's contract. 1st round draft choices are hit and miss, that $99M is a sure thing. It would essentially mean that 2026 wouldn't necessarily be a wasted year, the rebuild would start in 2026, rather than really starting in 2027. I think that's worth a 1st round pick.

What do you think?

One team considered taking Tua Tagovailoa in trade with a Miami first round pick

That looks like a pie-in-the-sky clickbait story at best. Has any real media run this?

I think it's a mute point anyway. If another team is going to have to carry $99M on their books the next two years, they will either want more than our current first round pick, or more likely next years first round pick with the expectation we will fully bottom out and it could easily be a top 5 pick (possible #1). Would you want to throw away the first pick in the draft when we're rebuilding from scratch?

[Spider-Dan]

I think I'd have to consider a team taking Tua for a 1st round draft choice, if they are going to pick up his entire contract. That would remove $99M off the books for the cost of a 1st round draft choice.

No, it would not; MIA is still on the hook for the prorated signing bonus.  The new team would only take on his (guaranteed) annual salary for the remaining years.

It would suck to lose that 1st round draft choice, but the rebuild gets a lot easier without Tua's contract. 1st round draft choices are hit and miss, that $99M is a sure thing. It would essentially mean that 2026 wouldn't necessarily be a wasted year, the rebuild would start in 2026, rather than really starting in 2027.

First off, you have to start with the assumption that the GM will make impactful selections with first-round picks, because if that doesn't happen, none of the rest of this stuff matters; you cannot be successful if you are whiffing on first-round picks.

Second, first-round picks are able to contribute at a discounted rate for up to 5 years, making them much more valuable than one down year in 2026.  That first-round pick can be a foundational player that contributes for years to come... especially if the team is bad in 2026 and it's an early pick.

And third, the entire idea of "cap hell" being an insurmountable barrier to competitive play is overblown.  We saw this in DEN, where the Broncos cut Russell Wilson after 2023 and ate his huge contract, yet still made the playoffs in 2024, then clinched the #1 seed in 2025 with Russell Wilson as the team's highest paid player.

[Downunder Dolphan]

And third, the entire idea of "cap hell" being an insurmountable barrier to competitive play is overblown.  We saw this in DEN, where the Broncos cut Russell Wilson after 2023 and ate his huge contract, yet still made the playoffs in 2024, then clinched the #1 seed in 2025 with Russell Wilson as the team's highest paid player.

Possible point of difference - was Denver already carrying around $74M of dead cap money before they cut Wilson? We are, so if they weren't, our situation is understandably much worse... we're heading into the legal tampering period with just $1M of cap space on the books, so it's not exactly like we're flush with space to play with right now before any decision on Tua is made.

Also, if they chose to keep Wilson on the books (without playing him) would have they saved over $40M in cap space? That's the situation we have with Tua - it's going to be an additional cap hit of over $40M to cut him before the end of the 2026 season.

One thing we can all agree on though - Grier royally fucked us with this contract (even more than both Tyreek's and Ramsey's, which is really saying something)

[Spider-Dan]

Possible point of difference - was Denver already carrying around $74M of dead cap money before they cut Wilson?

If that's the case then it has nothing to do with the QB contract: Tua could still be playing at his 2023 level and that dead cap would be the same.

One thing we can all agree on though - Grier royally fucked us with this contract (even more than both Tyreek's and Ramsey's, which is really saying something)

The only thing that would have been worse would be if he had listened to all the fans hollering to ride out Tua's 5th year option.  Imagine how much worse off the team would be if Tua had signed his new contract in summer 2025.

In hindsight, the best options would have been to either re-sign Tua at a huge discount in summer 2023 at the same time as Hurts/Herbert/Burrow, or to trade him (and Tyreek, TBH) in summer 2024 at their peak value.

[Pappy13]

No, it would not; MIA is still on the hook for the prorated signing bonus.  The new team would only take on his (guaranteed) annual salary for the remaining years.

Ok, it's around $70M off the books. That's still a lot of money.

First off, you have to start with the assumption that the GM will make impactful selections with first-round picks, because if that doesn't happen, none of the rest of this stuff matters

Agreed, as I said losing that 1st round pick really hurts.

Second, first-round picks are able to contribute at a discounted rate for up to 5 years, making them much more valuable than one down year in 2026. That first-round pick can be a foundational player that contributes for years to come... especially if the team is bad in 2026 and it's an early pick.

Hmmmm...they didn't mention if they were talking about 2026 pick or 2027 pick. I guess that would make a difference. I was basing my decision based on the 2026 1st round pick, not a potential 2027 pick. It's still not saving you $70M unless maybe it's the #1 pick in the draft.

And third, the entire idea of "cap hell" being an insurmountable barrier to competitive play is overblown.  We saw this in DEN, where the Broncos cut Russell Wilson after 2023 and ate his huge contract, yet still made the playoffs in 2024, then clinched the #1 seed in 2025 with Russell Wilson as the team's highest paid player.

Agreed. The situation isn't insurmountable, I'm just asking the question which do you prefer. That 1st round pick or removing that $70M albatross from your cap. It's not a slam dunk, but I would have to consider it especially if it's our 2026 pick and not 2027 1st round pick. Consider with that $70M gone you could easily go ofter Malik. Would you rather have Malik than our 2026 pick? I would definitely have to consider that.

[Spider-Dan]

I was basing my decision based on the 2026 1st round pick, not a potential 2027 pick. It's still not saving you $70M unless maybe it's the #1 pick in the draft.

The context of the $70M is one bad season; a bad season that, it bears mentioning, would precisely align your need for a new franchise QB with a greater chance of an early pick to select said QB.

So I'm not sure why the Dolphins would be motivated to give up a first-round pick and trade Tua just so they can... improve their record in 2026 as they plan to draft a QB in 2027.
That doesn't make sense.

Now, if your intent is to compete for the playoffs in 2026, then... I guess?  But the other offseason moves don't make sense in that context.  So if you're going to tear the team down to the studs, giving up a pick that your GM should be turning into a promising core player is at odds with that goal.

[Downunder Dolphan]

The only thing that would have been worse would be if he had listened to all the fans hollering to ride out Tua's 5th year option.  Imagine how much worse off the team would be if Tua had signed his new contract in summer 2025.

Wrong. At least in my case.

I was saying we should make him play out his 5th year, and if we weren't certain (and we shouldn't have been after 2024) then franchise tag him for a year.

The Ravens did exactly that with Jackson, and it hurt neither as he signed a fat deal after he proved himself.

Tua wouldn't have been happy about it, but then it would have saved us a lot... by my calculation, about $99M of guaranteed money which is the hole we find ourselves in right now. 

[Sibster]

I think I'd have to consider a team taking Tua for a 1st round draft choice, if they are going to pick up his entire contract. That would remove $99M off the books for the cost of a 1st round draft choice. That seems reasonable to me. It would suck to lose that 1st round draft choice, but the rebuild gets a lot easier without Tua's contract. 1st round draft choices are hit and miss, that $99M is a sure thing. It would essentially mean that 2026 wouldn't necessarily be a wasted year, the rebuild would start in 2026, rather than really starting in 2027. I think that's worth a 1st round pick.

What do you think?

One team considered taking Tua Tagovailoa in trade with a Miami first round pick

Are you kidding me?   Giving a team a first round pick to take our garbage away?   

[Downunder Dolphan]

Are you kidding me?   Giving a team a first round pick to take our garbage away?  

Yeah, this is how ridiculous this whole situation has got.

Our best option is keeping Tua on our list but saying he's PUP, locking him out of the building for 12 months, and refer him to a fat farm and psychologist to get his body and head right for when we do cut him before the 2027 season.

It saves us over $40M that we would additionally have to wear from cutting him now, and ironically it does him a huge favor by giving him motivation to get himself physically and mentally ready without the risk of further concussions if he is serious about an NFL comeback. That's $40M plus we can use to address some of the many holes in this teams list, and I'll put up with the crap about it being a "potential distraction" stirred up by the media if it's still the best situation for us.