Maine roundtables the AL East pitching (starters):

[MaineDolFan]

Unlike the round table that breaks down which team has edges, I'm going to focus on strengths for all three squads that could content for the AL East title.  I am going to forecast starters on the assumption of health.  My projections will be the same that I use every year; mostly based on past performances.

It's too easy to assume a pitcher won't bounce back.  In today's age of medical science, let's make assumptions that all injuries will be fine this year.  Otherwise there is virtually no point to exploring this topic what so ever.

Let's start with the aces:

Curt Schilling, Boston Red Sox
A big portion of Schilling's problem last year was being off his feet, literally, until pitchers and catcher reported.  He was overweight and hadn't thrown since October of the year before.  This offseason Schilling has dropped 20 pounds, has run a half marathon with his wife, and is throwing simulated games every four days in Arizona.  His fastball is consistently in the 94, 95 MPH range.  A lifetime 3.40 ERA guy, look for Schilling's ERA to be around his career average.  He won 8 games last year on a bad ankle, look for his wins to be in the 16 to 17 range this year.

Randy Johnson, New York Yankees
Something wasn't right with the big lefty last year.  Johnson isn't the guy that will buckle under pressure, although playing in New York had to have something to do with it last year.  Even through his struggles, the big guy notched 17 wins and a mid range 3.79 ERA.  At least he'll repeat that, I'm looking for more in the range of 20 wins, with a slightly higher ERA.

Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays
My pre-season pick for the Cy Young in '06, Halladay is a monster.  Had he not taken that line drive off his leg, Halladay was looking at 25 wins last year and an ERA under 2.00.  Those are stupid good numbers.  I think Halladay will approach that this year.  He'll be close to the league lead in K's, wins and ERA.

#2's

Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox
Like Randy Johnson last year, there is something about the first year a pitcher has to play in NY or BOS that rattles even the coolest head.  Beckett should have success this year, but his reactions to the crowd when things aren't working will have a lot to do with things.  Beckett's K total last year of 166 should go up, as should his win total from last year's 15 (although not be a lot).  Look for Beckett's ERA to stay about the same, shouldn't top out more than 3.50.

Carl Pavano, New York Yankees
I know a lot of people expect Mussina to be at this slot, but I think Pavano is a better fit here.  Last year, like Johnson, Pavano battled high expectations and injuries.  Pavano has great stuff and as long as he can keep his ERA under 4.00, he should be in line for 15 wins.

A.J. Burnett, Toronto Blue Jays
Burnett will need to keep his head clear.  He has great stuff, knocked on 200 K's last year and a good ERA.  He's a completely different pitcher on the road versus at home.  Toronto can be a tough place to pitch and facing NY and BOS 19 times each is a little different than the Mets and the Phillies.  Burnett should be good for double digit wins, he won't need to claw for runs as he did last year in Florida.

#3's

Matt Clement, Boston Red Sox
I truly believe that Matt Clement is an ace in the making.  He was showing that last year prior to taking a line drive off his face.  He's worked all year on his delivery, which helps protect him on his follow through.  As a former pitcher myself, I know how unnerving it can be to throw a pitch and know that you have no way to deflect a ball hit back at you.  Clements wins should improve slightly from the 13 he notched last year, the biggest improvement you'll see this year will be his ERA and K total.

Aaron Small, New York Yankees
The Yankees would be crazy not to slot Small here.  10-0 last year and he seemed to get stronger as the season went on.  Small only threw 79 innings last year, coming into the rotation late, but I'm not concerned with his durability.  I really liked what I saw out of the crafty righty last year.  If Small falters early, bump everyone up one slot and toss Chacon into the five slot.  Nothing venturted, nothing gained.  In the least, Small gets the Yankees the 10 wins he did last year. 

Gustavo Chacin, Toronto Blue Jays
I LOVE this kid.  I think Chacin has the ability to knock on 20 wins this season.  He had some control problems last year as a rookie, but in his first year he saw it all and still walked away with 13 wins and a respectable 3.79 ERA.  Look for Chacin's ERA to go down, K's to go up, and for him to get at least 17 wins this season.

#4's

Tim Wakefield, Boston Red Sox
It's important to note that moving Wake from #3 to #4 should vastly help his numbers from last year.  He is what he is, a low 4.00's ERA guy that will get you anywhere from 12-15 wins a season.  He's also an innings eater.  I like Wake in this slot as he matches up well with most anyone's #2's and generally is an overmatch for most teams at the #4.  Look for Wake to win 12, ERA around 4.20.

Mike Mussina, New York Yankees
For the same reasons to move Wake to four is the same for Moose.  Moose can't compete with teams at the #1 position anymore, his ERA has taken steps up each season.  These are trends, not flukes.  At the four slot he'll catch a lot of teams at their 3, 4, and 5's and I like Moose against most teams in this position.  If the Yankees lower the pressure on Moose and drop him down there is no reason he can't go 3.90 ERA and 13 wins this year.

Ted Lilly, Toronto Blue Jays
This is where the Jays start to fall apart a little in their rotation.  Lilly is a antacid popping guy to watch.  His ERA is always in the 5's and he always posts double digit losses.  And then, right when you don't expect it, he'll toss a one hitter on the road against a quality team.  The vital thing with Lilly is to have a short leash and yank him when he struggles.  Lilly is what he is, and will continue to be:  double digit loss guy with a high ERA.

#5's

David Wells, Boston Red Sox
Boomer has been talking to Boston lately and is leaning towards agreeing to stay.  It's a win-win all around if he does.  He'll never go for being the #5 guy, but this is where I slot him.  At 5 he'd prosper and catch a lot of teams at 1 and 2.  Wells will notch another 14 to 15 wins and is a valuable lefty.

Chien-Ming Wang, New York Yankees
I'm excited about this kid, he's a gamer.  Healthy, Wang could easily be the best #5 in the entire league.  If Moose or Small falters, look for Wang to get into the 4 or 3 slot.  I expect Wang to easily notch 10-12 wins and a high 3.90ish ERA. 

Dustin McGowan, Toronto Blue Jays
Chacin overshadowed another rookie on the Jays squad last year.  The safe thing to do is start Towers in this position.  I wouldn't.  Towers won't improve and you have a potential #2 in the young flame throwing McGowan.  I think McGowan could be good for 8 wins.  That will be a success with an ERA under 4.00.  I really would like to see the 'Jays give the kid a shot.

Intangibles:

Boston has Jon Papelbon, Jon Lester and Bronson Arroyo in the wings; you'll see all in starting roles in '06.  Watch out for Lester, he's going to turn some heads.

New York has some nice breathing room with Chacon, Wright and maybe Lieter as well.

Toronto's depth lacks in the starter role, the bench is a little slim and the talent lacks.  Look for the Jays to make some moves as the season goes on, they should be able to net a nice veteran to bolster the depth.

Overall, if healthy, some of the best pitching in the bigs could come out of the AL EAST.