Listen up,
the Blue Jays owned the Red Sox last season. You let in over 100 runs against us last season alone. That is freaking terrible, now your talking smack when were even better
Boston won 95 games last year, Toronto 80. I could care less what Boston did against Toronto, if we're talking last year. Last time I checked the season is determined by over all results. Boston also got schooled by Tampa Bay. And that mattered in the end...why? Talk about how Toronto is going to rule the world in 2006 until you are blue in the face. But if you are going to start off with "we were better than you last year"...um, not really. 95 wins versus 80. Sorry. Scoreboard.
Had Boston won 3 additional games against Toronto and forced New York into the wild card the end result would have been the same. Boston wasn't going to beat the Angels nor the White Sox last year. So, in the end, the results against Toronto alone were six of one and a half a dozen to the other.
Blue Jay fans kill me. For one - you've been MIA for decades. Two, you jump and up and down and cry "we want respect" without being willing to (1) earn it and (2) give it. Toronto has not broken .500 overall for a long time. Boston hasn't won less than 90 games in a long time. Onward.
Real fans, like Raptor, should be pissed. He's been around in the dark days, not jumping on the bandwagon because ESPN is telling Jays "fans" that they have a shot this year. No need to argue this fact, the Jays were one of the lowest attending MLB franchises last year. Fact, not fiction. All the sudden...they are back! Gasp.
Bengie Molina - Greg Zaun
If you had bothered to read any of my other posts, rather than one, you'd see that I agree that Molina is an upgrade over Zaun.
Lyle Overbay - Eric Hinske (Overybay)
Curious - you do know that Overbay is a career .270 hitter that averages 11 errors per year. That's 11 errors. Every year. At FIRST BASE. Maybe this is an upgrade over Hinske offensively ( he certainly has more pop), but this falls head into my "sacrifice defense for power" statement - but not by much. Overbay had, what? 19 home runs in '05? Hinske had 15. Eric had 7 errors, most at 3B versus 11 last year for Overbay at 1B (an easier defensive position). Where is the upgrade there? Eric's OBP is also on par at .333% versus .373% for Overbay. This is not a dramatic upgrade what so ever.
Why: Overbay is not only a far better hitter, but a better defensive player/
Better hitter? Slightly. Better defensively? No.
Aaron Hill - Orlando Hudson (Hudson)
Why: Hudson was my fav player and I have his jersey but everyone should know Aaron Hill is a better hitter and Aaron Hill is pretty good with the glove. He is not a srub he was one of our top prospects... Right now oDaWG but in the future Aaron Hill is the better player.
Hill might turn into a decent player, but if he were better...he would have played in that spot. Again, if you read any other posts you would see that I'm fairly high on Hill. But, again, a prospect is a prospect for a reason. Until he proves to be as reliable as Hudson, it's a question mark.
In regards to your farm system, I promise you this: I know the system inside and out. I cover their AA team.
Troy Glaus - Corey Koskie (Glaus)
One - you mentioned Koskie not staying healthy. Glaus hasn't been able to stay healthy for coming up on four seasons. Two, Glaus is a double digit error machine in the limited time he's seen the field. This, again, dives HEAD FIRST into my statement: sacrifice defense for power. When you have a hitter that bats under .250, with an OBP of .280 or lower and 37 homeruns...it's occasional power at best.Â
Shea Hillenbran, on the other hand, hit .291 with 18 home runs and 80+ RBI's - all while committing 6 errors versus Glaus's ****24***** errors. Glaus had 97 RBIs to Shea's 82. 24 errors at the hot corner translates to a lot of unearned runs.Â
This isn't just last year. In case you need a Glaus education:
1999:Â 19 errors
2000:Â 33 errors
2001:Â 19 errors
2002:Â 20 errors
2003:Â 11 errors and only played in 87 games
2004:Â Â 2 errors and only played in 19 games all season
2005:Â 24 errors
Glaus will provide the occasional fireworks that will put people in the stadium. The Jays would have been far better off going with Shea full time at third rather than giving up Hudson for the occasional pop.Â
Sorry, I call 'em like I see 'em. You don't want Shea? I'll take him over Mike Lowell every day of the week and twice on Sundays.
Russ Adams - Will remain the teams SS.
Shea Hillenbrand - Will remain the teams DH.
Frank Catalnotto - Will remain the teams LF
Vernon Wells - Will remain the teams CF
Alex Rios - Will remain the teams RF
Again - read some other Jays posts. You'll see my more than favorable opinion on Wells and Frank (although aging, your best option as a lead off hitter).
Roy Halladay would of won the CY Young award if he was not hit with a line drive. Not really his fluat... He was going to start the All-Star game.
Wow, I'm becoming a broken record. Read other posts. But, until then I'll repeat myself yet again. There is no bigger Doc fan than me. But the man can't stay healthy. Last year was a fluke, but other years the injury bug has been throwing related and not a line drive off the shin. I'm a card carrying member of the "I love Halladay" club, I think he's the best pitcher in the game. Period.
A.J Burnett gives us a legit 2nd starter, we also lost Ted Lilly for a large portion of the season and he never got into a groove.
If Burnett stays healthy, which he's not been able to do, he gives you a viable second option. Burnett, on a stronger staff, would be a three pitcher and he's better served there. Lilly, outside of being a Red Sox killer, is useless. He's injury prone and a career 4.67 ERA guy with a lifetime 44-45 record. If Toronto had to play Boston 80 times a year, he'd come in handy. They don't, and he isn't.
B.J. Ryan is a huge improvement over Miguel Batista, our other parts of our bullpen were solid last year but Miguel was terrible as the closer. We now have an All-Star closer.
I won't argue too hard that Batista was a horror show for a closer, but it was also his first year in the role. In Batista you had a guy that could start, go long relief or close. He's an innings eater and valuable, I'll go back to my stance that the Jays should not have given him up (along with Hudson) to obtain Glaus. That was a mistake. BJ Ryan's signing did not have to coincide with running Batista out of town. He would have been a much better 4 or 5 starter than anyone else on the staff.
BY Ryan had a strong season last year. One year. Toronto showered this guy with more money than what's his name in New York...you know, the guy that has earned his paycheck? I'm not saying that Ryan isn't talented, I'm not saying that he's not a flame thrower. What I am saying is that in his first season as a closer he burned out his arm, had a couple trips to the DL, and has never pitched on a big stag in a pressure situation. Why? Because Balimore wasn't in any big game situations.Â
This team will contend.
Read my other posts. Yes, they will contend. We live in a day and age when a 60 million dollar payroll Chicago White Sox bulldozed their way to an amazing year and title. Anything can happen. However, until they start playing - all one can do is go by past experiences and history. Last year the Blue Jays won 80 games, finished 2 games under .500 and 15 games out of first place. The wild card will come down to 93-95 wins in '06. The moves Toronto made do not equate to an additional 15 wins.Â
If that is "talking smack" versus an educated opinion, sue me.
I'll do a little homework for you. Here is a post before the Jays made the mistake of dealing away some players that they shouldn't have - and my forecast for '06. How's this for smack talk for you?
If the season should start today, the following is my breakdown of the Toronto Blue Jays and my forecast of the upcoming season.
I generally do this for all teams for my show and do it closer to spring training, but Toronto has already made most of their moves - and they are interesting ones. So here we go:
Starting pitching forecast:
1) Roy Halladay
230 innings pitched, 21 wins versus 7 losses. ERA 2.80 with 210 strike outs.
2) AJ Burnett
200 innings pitched, 16 wins versus 11 losses. ERA 3.75 with 200 strike outs.
3) Gustavo Chacin
220 innings pitched, 19 wins versus 6 losses. ERA 3.20 ERA with 170 strike outs.
4) Josh Towers
190 innings pitched, 13 wins and 13 losses. ERA 4.10 and 120 strike outs.
5) Ted Lilly
150 innings pitched, 10 wins versus 15 losses. ERA 4.50 with 100 strike outs.
Bullpen:
Vinnie Chulk should provide a lot of quality innings in middle relief and is a power pitcher. He'll approach 100 innings.
Jason Frasor could step into the set up roll, he's another flame thrower and could easily set up in the 7th and 8th. He's another innings eater with a low ERA.
Justin Speier is one of my favorites out of this bullpen. He's crafty and knows how to get people out.
Scott Schoeneweis was used as a specialist and this will change this year. He's got a great 2 seam and curve and showed a lot of promise in his first year with the Jays last year. Very valuable lefty out of the pen.
BJ Ryan should dominate. Watch for Ryan to knock on 50 saves this season and have an ERA under 3.00 to boot. Ryan can also pitch two innings on occasion.
Keys:
I'm not sold on Zaun, but he's improving. Zaun should provide decent defense behind the plate and hit around .270 with 18 home runs and 50 RBI's.
Russ Adams is going to be a player for the Jays at SS. He's very smooth and a good base runner. Last year was only his second full year in the bigs, expect Adams to knock on .300 this year and swipe 30 bags. I think you'll see Adams leading off in some games and hit in front of Wells.
Orlando Hudson should be locked up long term. He had a down year last year and errors were up, I expect that all to change. Hudson should also knock on .300 this year with increased power.
Shea Hillenbrand's play this year will be vital, I think that they'll hit Shea after Wells. 18 home runs is okay, Shea is a potential 30 home run guy.
Frank Catalanotto is getting a little long in the tooth, and his offense production is down - but he's a very good defensive outfielder.
I love Alex Rios, another player coming into only his third MLB season. Watch for big things from this slick fielding OF.
Vernon Wells makes it all come together. I'm expecting a huge season from Wells. I'm talking .310 / 38 / 140.
Toronto had a lot of young players last season getting their feet wet. The combo of those players gaining experience and solid moves by the front office leads me to believe that the Jays are a 88-92 win club in 2006. 92 wins might just be enough to take the East.
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<<edited for the dreaded comma splice>>
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