How to "Count Your Outs" in Texas Hold 'Em Poker.

[jtex316]

In the same category as Tommy's "How To Count Cards at BlackJack" thread, this thread is an instructional guide on how to "Count Your Outs" when playing Texas Hold 'Em.

Count your "outs"?  What the hell is an "out"?

"Outs" are the remaining cards in the deck that can potentially win you the hand, if you're the underdog in the hand (or if you think you're the underdog in the hand).

For Example, let's say Johnny is holding two Aces - An Ace of Diamonds and an Ace of Hearts. You are holding a Jack of Spades and a 10 of Spades. 

So, it's Ad Ah vs. Js 10s (the lowercase letters stands for the suit of the card, from here on out, so s=Spades, h=Hearts, c=Clubs, d=Diamonds).

The Flop comes a Ac, Qs, 9s.  So, Johnny now has 3 Aces, but you have a straight draw (any King or 8), or a flush draw (any Spade).  You also have a straight-flush draw, and you make a straight flush with either the King of spades or the eight of spades.

So, how many "outs" do you have left to turn your hand from not winning, to the winning hand??  Can you guess??

The answer is 16.  There are 16 different cards that can come out on the next card that will make your hand the winning hand, at that point in time (because remember there is still one card to go). 

You can draw any King for a straight (4 cards); any 8 for a straight (4 cards), and all but 1 spade for a flush (8 cards).   The Ace of Spades here is NO GOOD, because while you make a flush with it, Johhny makes FOUR ACES, which beats a flush. 

Ok so I now am aware of the exact number of cards left in the deck that can help me.  How do I turn that into a percentage, so I can see what my chances are?

The way to know what the percentage will be on the hand is simple. 

Take your number of outs (in this case it's 16), multiply it by 2, and add 2.

So, the formula will be 16 x 2 + 2, which = 34, or 34%

That was too complicated.  Can you give me a simpler example?

Fine.  Player 1 is holding Kd Kh.  Player 2 is holding Jd Jh.  The flop is 2c, 5h, 10d.  The turn is 7s.  Can you calculate your outs, and then your percentage of player 2 winning the hand on the last card?

First, he has 2 outs.  The only two cards player 2 can win the hand with are the two remaining Jacks in the deck.  That's it, nothing else, no other card will win it for him. 

So, 2 x 2 + 2 = 6%*.  Basically, player 2 is screwed, barring a miracle

* Note - When you multiply the outs by 2, and the total is 10 or less, it is more accurate to add 1 instead of 2 at the end, but a 1% variance of deciding what you're gonna do will never change your decision, so it's not really that important.

What if I need TWO cards in a row to help my hand become the winning hand?

If you need TWO consecutive cards to help your hand, ask yourself this question - what the hell are you doing in the hand anyways?

These situations are total longshots - never any greater then 10%, and that's really high for that kind of situation.  If you need two consecutive cards to win the hand after the flop, you're really looking at anywhere from a 2 or 3% chance to win, to a 1 in 1,000 chance to win.  Let's say you're all-in with 7, 7, and your opponent has A, K.  The flop comes A, A, K.  Your exact odds of catching the last two 7's in a row are exactly 989 to 1.  It can happen, and has happened, but you can easily bet the farm that it won't happen, ever.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hope this guide helps you the next time you play Texas Hold 'Em!

[Denver_Bronco]

Its very easy to know your outs considering you are playing with just 1 deck. If you can't do the simple math you shouldn't be playing the game or you should be playing with me so i can take your "dead money"....

[jtex316]

Its very easy to know your outs considering you are playing with just 1 deck. If you can't do the simple math you shouldn't be playing the game or you should be playing with me so i can take your "dead money"....

Dude, you'll be surprised at the sheer volume of people who do not understand simple math who play poker.  Casinos call these people "Fiscal Quarter Increases"

[Dave Gray]

I have a question Joe.  I think your math might be missing something.

You say that you have 16 Outs, but I don't think it's that many.  I believe it's only 14....because in your method you're counting the Ks and 8s twice.

The cards to get you out of the hand are:

2s, 3s, 4s, 5s, 6s, 7s, 8s, 8h, 8d, 8c, Ks, Kh, Kd, Kc

14, not 16.

[jtex316]

That's correct.  14 instead of 16.

Didn't think anyone would actually be anal enough to pick that up, but you get the point.  is a 4% difference really gonna matter?  No, you're gonna call if it's 30 or 34 percent.

14 outs, however, is still a shit-load of outs to have in Hold 'Em.  It's hard to fold.  Usually, you're looking at 5 or 6 outs.  Once in a while, you'll be almost dead even going to the last card - this usually happens when someone is holding something like a pair or 2's or 3's.

[jtex316]

Let me add something really quick to this:

When should I use this method of counting outs and converting it into a percentage?

You're not going to need to know this when the cards are turned over, in "all-in" situations.  You're gonna have to know this when facing a bet from the other player, or when betting yourself. 

So, not only are you going to have to make an educated guess as to what your opponent is holding, you're going to have to "guess-calculate" your percentage / odds right there.  So you don't know what your opponent is holding, so it's not exact math, but it's a hell of a lot better then gambling blindly.  You can completely miscalculate (and it happens all the time), because you think your opponent has you totally beat, when they could very well be losing, or "drawing dead" themselves - meaning they can catch zero cards to win the hand. 

But that's a whole other topic. 

There's a saying in Poker - "When the cards are flipped up, the poker is over".  Meaning there ain't a damn thing you can do about it after the cards are turned, but it's still good to get a general idea of the cards left that can help you.