2006 Record prediction

[bsfins]

Finally some realism....I still agree with the 8-8 to 9-7...

I kind of see it this way...
Let's be honest,Zach is great going from sideline,to sideline a tackling machine.He's also getting slower,and the wear and tear on his body is starting show.He hasn't played a full 16 games since 2002.

Channing Crowder,Played well,he'll be our future MLB.He's a sideline,to sideline tackling machine.No sacks,or int's...

Donnie Spragan,and Sedrick Hodge are average....Good depth But not playmakers

Jason Taylor,when we drop him into coverage,he's just an average Lb.He's most effective rushing the passer.

The Rest of out D-line isn't getting any younger...

The secondary is scarey....(scarey as in not good)
Will Poole coming off an injury
Will Allen has never lived up to expectations,not known for being a ball hog..
Travis Daniels is improving
Renaldo Hill...?? ?? ?? Who knows...

We don't have a Playmaking Saftey...Tavares Tillman,played well near the end of the season...

The offense...
Culpepper will not have seen live action in almost a year,he's going to have to shake some rust off...Need time to build chemistry...

L.J. Shelton is not a MAJOR upgrade,3rd team in 3 years...

We really lack that 1 or 2 dominant o-lineman
Stockard Mcdougal was a bust for us last year.
Vernon Carey Is improving,but isn't that dominant guy on the right side.
Mckinney sucks...
Wade Smith is coming off the broken arm,question mark on how he'll do...
Rex Hadnot improving,but not a great pass blocker.good runblocker
Jeno James I really don't know about,he's just good enough to start.
Damian Mcintosh struggles in passing situations,a penalty magnet.

Depth at WR,is a concern...Lack of flat out speed... If something happens to Chris Chambers early, and we lose him for more than a game...Booker,Campbell,and Welker...none of them is a #1 WR...

I have high hopes for Teyo johnson,Randy Mcmicheal spent too much time pass blocking.

Hopefully we'll see more 2 RB sets with the addition of Fred Beasley

I just feel...even on paper..there are way too many question marks.I feel the lack of playmakers will cost us...Just the way i see it...I just don't see the 11-5,12-4, type of season..with alot of luck 10-6 at Best..

[raptorsfan29]

11-5, why? because some people are forgetting that we have Nick Saban as a coach and not Wanny. We have a much better coaching staff then we had with Wanny.

Nick Knows what he wants and how he goes along doing it. he's a hard ass coach better then the lovey dovey coach we had. Nick also knows how to get the best out of players.

Did anyone expect Gus to be a capable QB in miami? no. Did anyone expect us to
have a winning record? no.  So my reasons for putting us at 11-5 is because Nick Saban knows how to coach. and because of the additions we had, but mostly because of nick saban

[bsfins]

11-5, why? because some people are forgetting that we have Nick Saban as a coach and not Wanny. We have a much better coaching staff then we had with Wanny.

Nick Knows what he wants and how he goes along doing it. he's a hard ass coach better then the lovey dovey coach we had. Nick also knows how to get the best out of players.

Did anyone expect Gus to be a capable QB in miami? no. Did anyone expect us to
have a winning record? no. So my reasons for putting us at 11-5 is because Nick Saban knows how to coach. and because of the additions we had, but mostly because of nick saban

All the coaching in the world won't help if you don't have players/Talent...Nick Saban can't control injuries,he can't throw the ball,catch the ball,pick up a blitz,sack the Qb,Intercept a pass.....

[lovehate]

Dave's formula is stupid.

Thank you Brian.  Mad props.  That formula is beyond stupid.  10-6.  Tommy should get a job with the bcs!

[Dave Gray]

I'm curious as to why my formula is stupid, when it's just weighing probabilities.  The fact that I'm altering for home field makes no difference on the outcome, since we have the same number of home and away games.

It's the same thing that all of you are doing.  I'd hardly call it a formula, anyway, since it's just my arbitrary predictions on how likely we are to win games.

Most of your predictions are done much the same way, I bet.  You figure that we'll lose one to either the Bills or Jets....that's the same as setting all of the games to .75.

[fyo]

You figure that we'll lose one to either the Bills or Jets....that's the same as setting all of the games to .75.

Remind me not to get you to do my taxes ;-)

[MaineDolFan]

Really?  Predictions before the draft?  (Insert Jerry MqGuire here)..."I lost my best player the night BEFORE THE DRAFT!"

AHEM.

[mcduff81]

per Dave's method

10.398 - 5.602

[DanDaMan13]

This is what I think the Dolphins will do in the 2006 NFL season:

Sept. 7-    @ Pittsburgh- L
Sept. 17-   Buffalo-       W
Sept. 24-   Tennessee- W
Oct. 1-       @ Houston- W
Oct. 8-       @ N. E.      - L
Oct. 15-     @ NY Jets  - W
Oct. 22-     Green Bay-  W
WEEK 8-  BYE
Nov. 5-      @ Chicago-  L
Nov. 12-   Kansas City- W
Nov. 19-   Minnesota-   W
Nov. 23-    @ Detroit-   W
Dec. 3-     Jacksonville- L
Dec. 10-   N. E.-           W
Dec. 17-   @ Buffalo-   L
Dec. 25-   NY Jets-      W
Dec. 31-  @ Indy-       L

I'll say 10-6 at best with a possible Division Championship with an early exit in the playoffs, as usual. I have to be real about this, seeing the Dolphins go 8-8 & 9-7 most of the time.  Right now, this 13-3 & 12-4 is probably a little unrealistic. Because do you realize that with the 16 game expansion back in '78 that the Dolphins best season is the '84 season when they went 14-2?? Check out below:

1978- 11- 5 - Division Champs- early exit from playoffs
1979- 10- 6- Division Champs- Lost Div. Playoffs @ Pittsburgh
1980- 8-8
1981- 11-4-1- Division Champs- Lost Div. Playoffs @ San Diego 
1982- 7-2- (strike season)- Division Champs- Lost Super Bowl to Redskins 
1983- 12-4- Division Champs- Lost Div. Playoffs- (Seattle) 
1984- 14-2- Division Champs- Lost Super Bowl to SF 49ers 
1985- 12-4- Division Champs- Lost AFC Championship to New England 
1986- 8-8
1987- 8-7 (strike year)
1988- 6-10
1989- 8-8
1990- 12-4 (2nd Place)- 7-1 in Division (weak), then played Cleveland (3-13), Phoenix Cardinals (5-11), Pittsburgh & Seattle (both 9-7, which is borderline "average"), & a
10-6 Eagles team. Escaped out of the Wild-Card Playoff game 17-16 thanks to, naturally "another Marino comeback", then got our butts handed to us in the Div. Round- 44-34 by Buffalo!!
1991- 8-8
1992- 11-5- Division Champs (tiebreaker)- This was our last real shot with Marino as this year we actually got a bye week in the playoffs. Beat san Diego 31-0 in the Div. Playoffs, actually "HOSTED" the AFC Championship, & once again, got our butts handed to us, 29-10 by Buffalo!!!
1993- 9-7
1994- 10-6- Division Champs (another tiebreaker)- won WC Playoffs, Lost Div. Playoffs @ San Diego.
1995- 9-7 Lost WC Playoffs @ (once again) Stinking Buffalo!!!
1996- 8-8
1997- 9-7 Lost WC Playoffs @ New England
1998- 10-6 Won WC (Buffalo-FINALLY!!), Lost Div. Playoffs @ Denver 38-3 
1999- 9-7 (after an 8-2 start) Won WC Playoffs, Lost Div. Playoffs @Jacksonville 62-7 in the biggest Playoff upset in NFL history. Marino then retires.
2000- 11-5- Division Champs- Won WC Playoff, Lost Div. Playoff
2001- 11-5- (2nd Place)- Lost WC Playoffs to Baltimore Ravens
2002- 9-7 - (no Playoffs)
2003- 10-6- (no Playoffs)
2004- 4-12- (no playoffs)
2005- 9-7- (no Playoffs)

This 4 year absense from the playoffs looks surprisingly like that period from 1986-1991,  (4 straight years & 5 out of 6 years with no playoff appearances.) Also, when you do the math, the last 4 years win/loss totals (2002-2005), add up to be 32-32, which equals out to 4 straight 8-8 seasons!!! I love the Dolphins dearly, but i get so tired of all the mediocrity and the December/Playoff slumps!!! I would love to see them come out and dominate one entire season and win a modern day Super Bowl Championship. If the NFL played 8 game seasons instead of 16, the Dolphins would be some real Butt-kickers!!! The first half of the year they're usually 6-2 or 5-3 most of the time. Then comes the dreaded slump- it's like as long as they can win 8 or 9 games any more, they're satisfied and just give up!! As long as they can keep their average up, they're happy!! But, I hate it!! Love the Dolphins but hate the end results EVERY YEAR!!!!!!

[crazy_scar_man]

7-9

[lovehate]

Dave's formula is stupid because all he's doing is just putting a number to his subjective view of whether we are going to win.  And he shouldn't need a formula to count to 16!  When faced with a 16 game schedule, how could there be any easier way to predict a record than by looking at each game, and guessing who's going to win by factoring in all the normal football stuff from stats to intangibles.  And do that for each game and then count it all up. 

[fyo]

lovehate,

Dave's formula is stupid....could there be any easier way to predict a record than by looking at each game, and guessing who's going to win...do that for each game and then count it all up

Then what do you do if there are several games that you truly consider 50/50 games? If you count them all victories or all defeats, you are being unrealistic. If you count every other as a win, you are using Dave's "formula", even if you don't think you are.

[Dave Gray]

lovehate,

Then what do you do if there are several games that you truly consider 50/50 games? If you count them all victories or all defeats, you are being unrealistic. If you count every other as a win, you are using Dave's "formula", even if you don't think you are.

Exactly.  The fact that I'm actually putting a .5 next to two games, rather than putting a W (1) or an L (0) next to one of each, the end result it the same.

[Denver_Bronco]

5-11. A solid 5-11 though...

[Denver_Bronco]

Sep 7   @Pittsburgh        L - this is a given
Sep 17   Buffalo              L - Buffalo is just a better team             
Sep 24   Tennessee         L - Youngs first action 16/18 4 td's 122 yd rushing           
Oct 1   @Houston             W - Only cause Houston misses GW fG       
Oct 8   @New England      L - Ummmm, NE owns you         
Oct 15   @N.Y. Jets            L - Ummmm, Jets own you   
Oct 22   Green Bay             L- Bert picks the Dolphin game to be only game w/o INT     
Week 8   BYE                     Only Miami can lose on a bye week       
Nov 12   Kansas City          L - Larry Johnson 300 yds rushing vs. decrepit D       
Nov 19   Minnesota             W - This is your free one
Nov 23   @Detroit               W- Even you are better then Detroit, barely         
Dec 3   Jacksonville              L - Jacksonville too physical     
Dec 10   New England         L - Ummmm, its New England
Dec 17   @Buffalo                 W - Buffalo gives you a gift and plays third stringers         
Dec 25   N.Y. Jets                W - Herm Edwards starts Brooks Bolinger