The Dolphins Make Me Cry.com - Forums

We've kinda talked about this before, but Colin had a segment on it after the World Cup.  The final women's game got a big rating, bigger than World Series and NHL finals and stuff.  He pointed to a few things, but one of them was just the realization that soccer is coming up.

He said that if sports were a stock, that 10 years ago, soccer was the sport to buy.

Then he compared the NFL to Apple.  Yes, it's on top, but there's nowhere to go but down and it's expensive.
He said the NHL was niche.  It's the North of the country with no diversity.  The All-Star game is all white people, the stands are all white people.

I thought years ago that the UFC was a good buy.  It has grown in that time, but leveled out.

What would you buy now?  What would you sell?

Buy: NFL and MLB (NFL is obvious and it isn't going down anytime soon that baby is a cash cow that will keep growing, TV ratings for MLB aren't great but the live attendance numbers have had a slow climb year after year and more teams are making more money at the gates than ever.)

Sell:  Soccer (all time high can only go down from here, best players play overseas not in America, no professional woman's league, the mens professional league in this country is really minor league soccer and not the best of the best,  total niche sport that people only care about every 4 years.)  I would also sell NASCAR (TV Ratings and live attendance have been on a steady decline for a few years now, that sport peaked and is on a downward spiral)

I go the other way.

I sell the NFL.  It's really high right now, plus with concussion stuff, I think the product will start losing elite talent to other sports.
I buy the NBA because I think it's stable and it's going to get a bunch of new money from that TV deal.
I think MLB might be a good buy, because it's in a slump, but it's been around so long that it might have a re-surgence.  Also, there's a lot that the sport can do to improve.
I don't touch hockey one way or another.  I think it's fine and will not grow or shrink too much.

Hockey like Soccer is a niche sport, can't buy it ever, it will never be huge in the United States. NBA is a bad buy in my opinion, that sport is a big hot mess top to bottom.

But the one I want to challenge you on is the NFL. It has had steady growth for 20 years now, its profits dwarf the other sports, it's regular season TV ratings are monster its playoff ratings are off the charts. There is nothing, nothing to show it will change. The concussion thing is a blip on the radar. Those lawsuits have come and gone, more might come but it had zero effect on the sports popularity. They NFL league office can print money its so popular and that won't change anytime soon. Getting back in LA is also a big boom for the league. The NFL has a rocket ship on its back and isn't coming down anytime soon.

I think that the NFL is at risk because people will move their talents to other sports.  Youth programs will suffer and in the long run, it will hurt interest in the league.  Don't get me wrong, I love the NFL, but I think it'll have a downturn.  Everything you said is true about it NOW, but I don't think there's room to grow and make money on the stock.

I'd still buy soccer. Sure, it may be at an all-time high for popularity, but that's an all-time high "now." It doesn't mean that it won't get even more popular. Success breeds popularity, and the more success the US teams have against the world, the more its stock will grow. Another reason is the Us vs Them mentality. With MLB, NFL, NBA and NHL, we are battling against ourselves. United States citizens against United States citizens. Only soccer provides a unifying aspect and appeals to our nationalistic tendencies.

I'd sell MLB, because I think it is a penny stock that won't ever grow that much. The reason I feel this way is because it doesn't contain enough "constant action" to make it an appealing sport for the casual viewer to watch. Do I enjoy baseball? Yessir, I do...because I was raised watching and playing baseball. As kids, we didn't have nearly the amount of options for viewing or playing as kids today do, and I think that is causing an attritional effect in baseball.

I'd hold NBA and NFL, because I believe both are popular sports that should retain their popularity, for the converse reason noted in my MLB-sell strategy. Both are easy to watch for casual viewers.

Saying that you should buy the NFL is like saying you should buy Microsoft or Comcast or Nike; it's tough to imagine them increasing their marketshare, so you're really just storing money there.

I don't see the downturn coming. In fact I think the big boom has yet to come. When they spread this game international and expand to LA and Europe and put teams there, I think with the increasing popularity of "daily fantasy games" and how sports leagues are going to begin buying into those companies.....what sport would be the most popular there, the NFL and benefit more there, there isn't one! I think with the streaming of shows and streaming of games and such ready to take off in this country, more playoff games, more TV packages (possibly a 9am Sunday Europe game weekly coming soon)....the NFL is on the brink for huge financial growth. More than any other sport on planet earth.

As long as there are poor kids in this country (and lord knows we have enough of them) there will be talent going to the NFL! Maybe the kids from the wealthy neighborhoods shy away from football moving forward, but there are enough poor kids who can and will use it as a way to make a living and get out of their crappy situations they were born in to keep the sport healthy for years to come.

1) Boxing is a Penny Stock. That is worthless. MLB's growth at the gate and in revenue in recent years shows this is a sport and business that is growing. It's not growing fast but when looking at NASCAR and GOLF that is losing fans and revenue, MLB is moving in the right direction.

2) Soccer was at an all time high in 1999 as well, and nothing came of it. The success it had in 1999 was as much or more than what happened 2 nights ago. Soccer is like figure skating, every 4 years people get into it for a couple weeks then they forget about it the night after it ends and it's not on the national radar in this country for 4 more years or so.

I'd still buy soccer.  It's HUGE HUGE HUGE all over the world and has lots of room to grow here.  Also, Hispanic populations in the US continue to grow and it's popular there.



I agree with this, but my fear is that the poor kids playing will grow up to be the poor people watching it and there won't be money to throw at it.  Wealthier people will put their kids in soccer and lacrosse or whatever and the interest will be there when they grow up.  Sports have a grassroots effect -- you love what you know.

I sell Golf, Tennis, Nascar, Boxing, Horse-Racing.

Oh, but I do buy College Football in the short term.  The playoffs are going to blow it up in popularity.  That's going to expand and take the sports world by storm.

MikeO, I'm not sure why you think the NFL will rapidly expand outside of America.  This conversation is like a bunch of Canadians sitting around talking about how hockey is so dominant and is just about to explode onto the world scene.  The World League of Football has come and gone with a whimper, as has NFL Europe.  Football is America's hockey; no one else cares about it.  We can't even get football into the Olympics.

And speaking of failed Olympic sports... baseball has also passed its peak.  While it still enjoys popularity in Latin America, Japan, and Korea, the rest of the world has pretty definitively spoken: baseball is not welcome.  Again, this is why MLB had to set up the World Baseball Classic after being kicked out of the Olympics.

I think everyone in this thread has been shortchanging the sport with the most potential: basketball.  America loves it, the rest of the world loves it, it's firmly entrenched in the Olympics and has many international leagues all around the world.  Basketball is the only sport that can begin to approach the international appeal of soccer, and it's very popular in the U.S., too.

I'd buy soccer in a second.  To say you wouldn't buy it just because it's not big in the U.S. is idiotic, it's the worlds most played sport.  I'd buy NHL stock, its cheap now, and is finally starting to get some TV time, HD TV's are certainly growing the viewership.  I'd dump NBA stock, the talent level is plummeting in that sport.

Buy:  NBA, MLS/Soccer

Hold but don't buy more: NFL, MLB

Sell or avoid: NHL, UFC, NASCAR,

Because it is and the NFL is doing everything in its power to make sure it happens with all of their actions. The NFL Has the midas touch and they are expanding overseas. They will put a Super Bowl in London and they will put at least 1 team in Europe possibly more. It's a matter of WHEN and not if at this point. And this will be a financial boom for the sport.

Rich kids have been playing lacrosse and soccer for decades and those are 2 sports in this country that nobody cares about. Soccer is a joke in this country, always has been always will be.

It's been the worlds most played sports for decades and that hasn't changed its status in the USA. No professional woman's league in the USA and the mens league is minor league soccer as the best of the best players play overseas. And that ain't changing anytime soon. And neither one of those things will change ever!

Soccer in the US has any number of problems. There are many and easy to point to (much harder to fix), but let's try to be objective and look at how the sport is doing. (Oh, and the lack of a women's league is a non-issue -- men's soccer is the most popular sport in the world, while basically no one cares about women's soccer.)

Attendance figures at MLS games have trended up since 2009, with a total increase of about 25% over those 6 years. Total attendance is through the roof mainly due to expansion, up almost 200% since the early 2000s. Total number of clubs is now at 21 with at least one more team on the way, pretty much double the number in the early 2000s.

Those are all extremely strong indicators and that they haven't suffered significantly during the economic downturn is impressive.

However, national interest in the form of huge TV ratings hasn't followed, although hard data is surprisingly hard to find. There were some statements earlier this year that indicated 2015 might be different. Ratings on ESPN were up 28% over 2014, although skewed by a couple of huge games. Ratings on Fox Sports were up 54% over the 2014 ratings on NBCSN, which previously had those slots. And 2014 wasn't a bad year (NBCSN's highest in the 3 years it had the rights). Univision, which broadcasts Friday night games, has also seen good numbers in 2015.

These increases in ratings should be considered in the context of the overall product delivered this year, which has taken a real beating in the press and from fans. The games covered early in the season (which is what the numbers above refer to) heavily featured the new expansion teams, with very little exposure for the top 4 teams. The number of goals per televised game was down and the commentating on Univision in particular has received an enormous amount of criticism.

Bottom line is that soccer is positioned quite well right now, but that large percentage increases are easy to obtain when the number of viewers is measured in the hundreds of thousands. The league has taken a number of solid steps to improve the overall package (expanding to important markets, locking down time slots, etc), but there is still a lot of work to be done tightening up the product and ensuring a consistent broadcast quality.

The NFL had an entire LEAGUE in Europe less than a decade ago.  They contracted it because it was bleeding money.

You really should add a tag line to all of your posts that says "The Gospel according to MikeO".

It doesn't matter whether it ever increases in U.S. popularity, which it has been doing and I believe it will continue to do, what matters is it's a world wide money maker.  To follow your logic it would be like someone in Paris (not Paris, Texas) saying the NFL is a terrible investment because it will never be big in France.

It was minor league football. Garbage players. Can't compare the two

I'm giving my opinion. You are giving yours. Is yours the gospel? When did I ever say mine was? I am voicing my opinion, that's what we all do around here. Of course since I believe my opinion is right I will back mine up and attack an opinion that disagrees with mine. That's not saying mine is gospel, that's just defending my stance. What millions of people do every day on all message boards. Don't be a Sensitive Susie!


Sure it matters, the United States is a giant in the world of sports. What is big in the USA is big worldwide. The NBA and NFL are big here so other countries want the NBA and NFL. There isn't a sport that is big elsewhere that dominates the American sports landscape. Soccer is the pimple on the ass of the American sports culture and its impossible for the sport to be a "good buy" going forward when this country don't give two craps about it. The United States doesn't care about soccer, it has been proven. Every 4 years or so people get into it for a couple weeks (like they do with figure skating at the Olympics), other than that nobody cares. Who is watching an MLS game over an NFL, NBA, or MLB game? Only the ever so small minority die-hard lunatic fringe soccer fan. The MASSES are watching everything else.  The sport will never increases in popularity in this country to where its a Top 6 sport in this country therefore its a bad buy. It's a niche sport with no audience inside the United States.  Since the sport is already very very popular in Europe and South America, how much growth is there? Probably none. While the NFL is huge here and #1 in America, it is now expanding to Europe at a fast rate and will soon be a power and force across the pond!

America loves football.  America also loves college football, which is basically the "minor league" for the NFL.  Canadians also have a football "minor league" that has been successful for decades.  You're basically saying that Europeans love the NFL but don't really care about the sport itself, which makes no sense.  (As a point of contrast, other countries can't get enough of "minor league" basketball, and pay our washed up NBA players millions of dollars to play over there.)

The reason why "minor league" football was unsuccessful in Europe is because Europe does not like gridiron football.  If the English Premier League held two games a year in America, I'm sure those games would be very well attended, but that wouldn't mean that soccer is about to explode here, either.

NFL Europe was a joke every which way. It was basically a bunch of show games, just with bad teams. Sports in Europe (and Asia and South America) are different than in the US. The whole tradition of a single entity owning the LEAGUE with teams just being franchises doesn't exist anywhere else as far as I know. That sort of "top down" approach has proven very hard to export to countries that are used to open, free market sports where anyone can start a team (or invest in one) and fans have a completely different attachment to they club the root for.

Football is growing in Europe, from the ground up. More and more kids are playing and the sport is rapidly gaining in popularity. Note that this is LOCAL development in a style similar to how soccer is organized in Europe. Without going through the yearly reports of the European Federation of American Football, a quick google search showed that the number of players in Germany increase 10% year-over-year from 2012 to 2013. This is expected to increase another 50% no later than 2020. That's a huge (and long term unsustainable) growth in a dominant European country.

Europe/London is gonna sell out 3 NFL games this year. In the coming year that is gonna jump to 5 or 6 games the NFL will play over there each year and from the numbers odds are those will sell out easily as well. So putting a team over there within the next 5-10 years that is a  full time "home team" your saying couldn't sell out 8 games? It will sell out 8 games  or sell enough tickets for those 8 games to make it a financial success easily!! You are way off on this one Spider. It's a process. The sport is growing over there at a rapid pace the NFL isn't rushing into this, they are handling it perfectly.

NFL Europe was a joke, bring the real deal over there and those fans are eating it up. Give those fans their own team and it will be a huge boom!

MLS sells out far more than 8 games in America.  Does that mean that soccer is poised to take over America?

8 games tells you nothing about where gridiron football, as a sport, is headed in Europe.  If Europe can't sustain a football league (and they clearly cannot), they don't really like football.

You keep insisting that NFL Europe was a low-quality product and that this is the reason football failed in Europe.  But Europe will never have an NFL-quality gridiron league, just as America will never have an EPL-quality soccer league.  Having 8 games a year in London is not remotely the same thing as a sport taking hold in a continent.  And once again: minor league basketball does perfectly well in Europe.

By the metrics of success you are using for gridiron football in Europe, soccer has already taken over in America.

Oh my god, really Spider. Nobody said the NFL was taking over Europe. I just said they can expand with 1 or 2 teams there and be successful. Hence in turn, making the NFL product overall more popular and bring in more revenue. Making it it a good buy in "stock terms" as a whole the NFL would increase and become bigger.

MLS sucks in America and isn't in Europe. Soccer is dead in America, has no ratings on TV, a small fan base, and makes very little money as a company. If you can't see the difference between the two then I don't know what to say.

NFL=Getting bigger, making tons more money, potential growth is through the sky
Soccer=Has nothing going on in America and is maxed out its popularity in Europe/South America, making it a bad buy and can only go down.

Again, the NFL just shuttered their (pathetic) European league less than 10 years ago and (pathetic) American soccer draws millions in attendance every year, yet to you this somehow means that football is growing in Europe but soccer is dead in America.


Ahem....

So there is that.

By any metric you want to use, if NFL is "doing great" in Europe then soccer is already dominant in the States.  If Europe cannot successfully support a minor league for gridiron football, then Europe does not like football.  And as evidence (for the fourth time), I cite BASKETBALL, which has successful minor leagues ALL OVER THE WORLD.

Imagine that the following 4 people take a trip together:

1) Joe Montana
2) Michael Jordan
3) Aaron Rodgers
4) LeBron James

Outside of North America, there is no country on the planet in which the football players would be more recognized or popular than the basketball players.

The NFL can be very popular, pack arenas and be financially successful in Europe (not saying its the #1 sport over there, it never will be!! I'm just saying it would be a financial boom and very popular over there increasing the NFL's popularity globally overall and making them more money overall as a league. It would be a dominate force over there, wouldn't make them #1 but it would be front page news there in that part of the world when the NFL expands there) The NFL goes to Europe and they pack over 80,000 in an stadium. MLS in the USA are lucky to get 19,000 for games, and that's on a good day. You can't see the difference? You can't see how one is a success the other is an utter failure.

Soccer is nothing in this country. Since the 70's all the soccer sicko fans keep saying how Soccer is going to explode in America, how its on the verge of this boom and such. It never happens! It's so popular they say...yet nothing ever comes of it. In 1999 when the ladies won the world cup....here it is, this is gonna kick-start the boom that's all we heard, nope. In 2015...same verbiage after the world cup, nothing will come of it.

The NFL is going to be holding Super Bowls in Europe, will be putting a team or two FULL TIME there soon. Those are things that are in the works. When a major soccer league comes to America and is having games on in Primetime on a NETWORK (not cable, a network) and is drawing decent ratings and has more than 20,000 people in a stadium on a consistent basis...wake me up.

We are going in circles at this point. This has become boring. Believe what you want Spider.

You don't think an English Premier League game could fill a large stadium in America?  We got 90,000+ attendance for World Cup games here back in 1994.

My point is that you are using wildly different standards for football and soccer.  A European soccer fan would look at gridiron football there and say EXACTLY the same things you would say about soccer here if MLS had recently went under.

So they can expand, put a team here full time and let's find out. They won't because they know in the United States there isn't the fan base to support a soccer team full time on that level and draw that kind of fan for however many home games they play. Could they do it one time, yes. Can they do it for week after week month after month...nope!

World Cup is a BAD comparison. That is like the Olympics because fans from all over the globe travel to it as an "event" that takes place every 4 years.  Can't count that. Need a league with regular teams to put 90,000 fans in a stadium for a regular season game or their championship game for it to be the equivalent

The other day, the T-Wolves had 15,000 fans at a scrimmage.  I really think the NBA is coming around to another Renaissance.

It's the one sport where the name on the back of the jersey means more than the name on the front of the jersey. Total star driven league. The NBA has had a little resurgence the past couple years. Lebron going to the Heat creating an "evil villain team" for everyone outside of Miami to root against helped the league.

But the NFL didn't expand and put a team drawing 80k per year in London.  They play a couple of special games there per year, and those games sell out.  If EPL had one regular-season game in the Meadowlands each year, that would sell out, too.

I'm still waiting for you to address basketball.

We are just going in circles at this point. You won't change my mind, I won't change yours. Whats the point of keeping this going.

Basketball has managed their stars really well recently.  Most of the names in the NBA are known for being good dudes.  They are really well dressed, show it off, they are friends with each other, they are supportive of younger guys -- it's all very visible, too. 

This is different than it was, with the negative attention controlling the NBA just a few years ago, with guns in the locker room and stuff.

The NFL, though huge in popularity, is most known for its negative off the field stuff, despite doing a bunch of positive stuff.  Hitting women, drugs and drunk driving, etc.  It's scandals.  It's like the meat-heads have taken over.

I would quite strongly dispute that. The NBA is NOT popular in Europe. No where near the level of the NFL. Michael Jordan is perhaps the exception, but then it doesn't help that football players have helmets on when they play...

I find this hard to believe.  It's just strange, because NBA players are actively, regularly coming from Europe and getting drafted high and we sent our players there to work out overseas before they're ready to move into the home rotation.  I rarely see an NFL player that came from Europe.

Dude, what?

https://youtu.be/dxA6qFza5_A?t=42m24s
https://youtu.be/dxA6qFza5_A?t=51m30s

You can't even compare basketball to gridiron football in Europe.

edit: more:

http://guardianlv.com/2014/03/nba-to-become-more-popular-internationally-than-domestically/
http://www.forbes.com/sites/aliciajessop/2012/06/14/the-surge-of-the-nbas-international-viewership-and-popularity/
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2178053-could-basketball-ever-become-the-most-popular-sport-in-the-world

The only way you could believe that Europeans don't like the NBA is if you think they prefer lower-level leagues, which would be like MLS fans disdaining EPL or the other powerhouse European soccer leagues.

Basketball is quite popular in Europe. NBA is not.

In general, basketball seems to be more of a "participation sport" in Europe, like soccer is in the US. Popular sport to play, not many watch it.


No, it wouldn't. The comparison falls flat on its face for one simple reason: People feel differently about local teams.

There's a reason the Dolphins are more popular in Miami than in North Dakota. With soccer, local viewership in European countries are much higher for top games in their own league than EPL or La Liga or whatever. Total viewership is, of course, higher for the top leagues since they can draw audiences from all over.

However, without getting even remotely accurate historical ratings for sports in Europe (NBA and NFL... and preferably a few local leagues like La Liga) this discussion is just a bunch of bs and despite spending quite a bit of time searching, I wasn't able to dig up any numbers.

The only remotely interesting thing I was able to find was that there is apparently quite a large North / South divide in Europe with regards to basketball. Not played a lot in Northern Europe, much more in Southern Europe. There were some indications that the reverse was the case for football, but none were sufficiently substantiated.

An argument over the European popularity is not going to go anywhere I think. The business models are so different. Both leagues have quite a bit of a gap in the number of games played. Anytime you look at 16 games versus 80+ you are going to have more drive to take in the 16 since it is so limited.

If basketball is popular in Europe but gridiron football is not, I fail to see how that translates to increased future success for the NFL in Europe over the NBA in Europe.

My take

Soccer - strong buy.  Best way to predict the future success of a sport is to look at the kids programs.  Very strong growth.

Football - blue chip but expensive, nervous that it might be "too big to fail" and have complacent out of touch management.    Peewee is on the decline due to safety issues, this could slowly erode fan base. 

Baseball, blue chip, expensive, don't see any rapid grown or decline on the horizon. 

Lacrosse -  put some V.C capital in this one.  Could be the next soccer.  Rapidly growing youth programs.  Biggest problem no international event like world cup to propel it into lime life. 

Basketball -  sell

Boxing - short

Hockey - niche, not going to lose money on this stock but don't except to see huge gains either. 

Figure skating - very cyclical stock buy 6 months before the Olympics when it is at rock bottom, sell the morning of the closing ceremonies, before it crashes again.   

I think you guys selling basketball are crazy.

POSITIVE news for the NBA today which does make the sport a big-time BUY in this country. ABC just announced starting in January they will air a game in PRIME-TIME every Saturday night.

That's huge for the sport. Exposure on a real network instead of being stuck on cable for 90% of their big games

Yeah, because very few people get cable.   ::)

I believe there are more cord-cutters than you think.

You clearly aren't informed. Because cable subscriptions are decreasing at a rapid rate and it went down 12% in January alone of this year and the decline has continued every month of this year and the downward trend is snowballing at a rapid rate. Why do you think all of these giant cable mergers are taking place, because the cable companies don't give a crap about the cable TV, they need the broadband lines to stay profitable and survive due to streaming.  Most people just get the local channels (aka the networks) from their providers just to get local news and such for a few bucks a month then stream everything else. Cable TV is a dying industry. And if you don't know the difference between a cable rating and a network rating then you truly are clueless! Not to mention the advertising dollar difference advertisers pay for promoting their product on cable vs a network.

Mike you are greatly overstating things.

Last year the cable industry lost 0.12% in a year not 12% in one month. 

The cable industry lost about half as many subscribers and Verizon FiOS and AT&T U-verse gained.  So it isn't as much that people are giving up TV as much switching methods of receiving TV. 

Also most cable cutters are replacing it with some sort of other service...netflix, hulu etc.  Someone who is really into sports is cutting ESPN out of their lives. 

On the other hand someone who only watches HBO and the local news might decided they can get HBONow for less.  They didn't watch basketball before and they won't now. 

Yes, cable is in decline, but anybody who wants to watch basketball does and people who don't want to watch it aren't going to start because it is on a major network.

Two reasons I keep DirecTV:

Sports and children's programming.  The latter is quickly becoming an invalid reason, as 95% of everything my child wants to watch is available on Netflix or Amazon Prime. 

As soon as IN MARKET teams allow streaming into a package such as MLB.com, I'm out.  And...it'll never happen, because they are in bed with the providers.  Living here, if I were a fan of all out of market teams, I would be golden; I could simply stream.  But there are no (legal) ways around it if I want to watch the Sox, Bruins and (to a lesser extent), Celtics.

Maine you picked the wrong sports to like local and out of area.  If you were a Patriots, Marlins, Heat, Panthers fan, you could stream all but football and watch football on CBS.