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Author Topic: Analysts turn Dolphins’ Hill pickup into referendum on Tua. And it’s enough alre  (Read 1947 times)
CF DolFan
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cf_dolfan
« on: March 25, 2022, 03:59:01 pm »

Barry Jackson has a good article on how everyone is spinning our great off season movement (finally BTW) into a negative Tua story. I, like many others, think his accuracy is going to help him thrive with more time, a running game, and a much better receiving core. It will no longer require him to make perfect plays all the time so acting like he needs to play like Aaron Rodgers this year to stay most likely isn't true. I also don't think it's true he needs to play "lights out" to keep perennial back-up Teddy Bridgewater off the field. I mean the guy was traded to the Denver Broncos in exchange for a sixth-round pick and now people are pretending he could be the 5th best starter in the league ... haha. As well, pretending Tua has been horrible isn't true either. In fact he's been the best QB we've had since Marino. Maybe not a pro-bowler just yet but he hasn't been a practice squad guy either.  Considering he's had no running game, few legit receivers most of the time and has to get rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds his win-loss record is pretty decent.


But again, where is this “excuse” narrative come from? Tagovailoa has never blamed his inconsistent play on anybody else. Some Tagovailoa supporters cited the lack of a sturdy offensive line and a substandard running game, and that’s justified. Beyond a handful of elite quarterbacks, who exactly would have thrived with an offensive line that yielded 247 pressures and a running game that averaged 3.5 per carry? Tagovailoa hasn’t been great. But he hasn’t been awful, either.

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article259665025.html#storylink=cpy
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Dolfanalyst
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« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2022, 04:17:17 pm »

The problem with these sorts of analyses is always this implication:

Quote
Beyond a handful of elite quarterbacks, who exactly would have thrived with an offensive line that yielded 247 pressures and a running game that averaged 3.5 per carry?

The problem there is that even when you look at sub-elite QBs, the year-to-year variation in their career performance isn't a function of variation in offensive line and running game play.  And even if it was, one could argue that the better the QB plays, the better those other facets of the offense also play.

There seems to be this bedrock philosophical belief among fans that the relationship between the QB and the other parts of an NFL offense are unidirectional, such that the offensive line and run game provide some sort of supportive foundation for the QB, without which he doesn't thrive.

If there indeed are significant relationships among these parts of offenses, they're far more likely to be bidirectional such that they all affect each other in a reciprocal manner.

Take for example the simple finding that the two strongest predictors of pressure on QBs are 1) time to throw, and 2) scoreboard differential.  The second of those is presumably attributable to the disadvantageous position offensives line are in when the whole world knows their QB has to pass the ball to mount a comeback on the scoreboard.  Well isn't that also a function of QB play?  Certainly QBs who are better at moving the ball and scoring are better at staying out of those situations, thus providing their offensive lines with more advantageous playing conditions.

Thus these relationships are bidirectional.  It isn't:

Offensive line --> QB
Run game --> QB

It's rather:

Offensive line <--> QB
Run game <--> QB
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masterfins
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« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2022, 08:05:05 pm »

I don't think Tua can play bad enough to have people wanting to bring in Bridgewater; BUT this season will be a referendum on whether the Dolphins move on and draft a QB in 2023.  If he's back to being injured and missing games then he'll be gone.  If he's not winning games this season through his arm, then he's gone. And he should be gone if his play is average.  Miami has two 1st round picks in 2023, and they won't have that kind of draft capital again for awhile.  I want to see 40 TD throws from Tua this year!
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EDGECRUSHER
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« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2022, 04:21:19 pm »

I don't think Tua can play bad enough to have people wanting to bring in Bridgewater; BUT this season will be a referendum on whether the Dolphins move on and draft a QB in 2023.  If he's back to being injured and missing games then he'll be gone.  If he's not winning games this season through his arm, then he's gone. And he should be gone if his play is average.  Miami has two 1st round picks in 2023, and they won't have that kind of draft capital again for awhile.  I want to see 40 TD throws from Tua this year!

Miami needs to be a Top 10 offense for me to fully believe Tua is the guy or can get even better. We got a ridiculous amount of weapons now so unless a lot of injuries occur, "not bad" is bad for Tua.
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