Sports as a stock

[Dave Gray]

The other day, the T-Wolves had 15,000 fans at a scrimmage.  I really think the NBA is coming around to another Renaissance.

[MikeO]

The other day, the T-Wolves had 15,000 fans at a scrimmage.  I really think the NBA is coming around to another Renaissance.

It's the one sport where the name on the back of the jersey means more than the name on the front of the jersey. Total star driven league. The NBA has had a little resurgence the past couple years. Lebron going to the Heat creating an "evil villain team" for everyone outside of Miami to root against helped the league.

[Spider-Dan]

So they can expand, put a team here full time and let's find out. They won't because they know in the United States there isn't the fan base to support a soccer team full time on that level and draw that kind of fan for however many home games they play. Could they do it one time, yes. Can they do it for week after week month after month...nope!

But the NFL didn't expand and put a team drawing 80k per year in London.  They play a couple of special games there per year, and those games sell out.  If EPL had one regular-season game in the Meadowlands each year, that would sell out, too.

I'm still waiting for you to address basketball.

[MikeO]

I'm still waiting for you to address basketball.

We are just going in circles at this point. You won't change my mind, I won't change yours. Whats the point of keeping this going.

[Dave Gray]

Basketball has managed their stars really well recently.  Most of the names in the NBA are known for being good dudes.  They are really well dressed, show it off, they are friends with each other, they are supportive of younger guys -- it's all very visible, too. 

This is different than it was, with the negative attention controlling the NBA just a few years ago, with guns in the locker room and stuff.

The NFL, though huge in popularity, is most known for its negative off the field stuff, despite doing a bunch of positive stuff.  Hitting women, drugs and drunk driving, etc.  It's scandals.  It's like the meat-heads have taken over.

[fyo]

1) Joe Montana
2) Michael Jordan
3) Aaron Rodgers
4) LeBron James

I would quite strongly dispute that. The NBA is NOT popular in Europe. No where near the level of the NFL. Michael Jordan is perhaps the exception, but then it doesn't help that football players have helmets on when they play...

[Dave Gray]

I would quite strongly dispute that. The NBA is NOT popular in Europe.

I find this hard to believe.  It's just strange, because NBA players are actively, regularly coming from Europe and getting drafted high and we sent our players there to work out overseas before they're ready to move into the home rotation.  I rarely see an NFL player that came from Europe.

[Spider-Dan]

I would quite strongly dispute that. The NBA is NOT popular in Europe. No where near the level of the NFL.

Dude, what?

https://youtu.be/dxA6qFza5_A?t=42m24s
https://youtu.be/dxA6qFza5_A?t=51m30s

You can't even compare basketball to gridiron football in Europe.

edit: more:

http://guardianlv.com/2014/03/nba-to-become-more-popular-internationally-than-domestically/
http://www.forbes.com/sites/aliciajessop/2012/06/14/the-surge-of-the-nbas-international-viewership-and-popularity/
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2178053-could-basketball-ever-become-the-most-popular-sport-in-the-world

The only way you could believe that Europeans don't like the NBA is if you think they prefer lower-level leagues, which would be like MLS fans disdaining EPL or the other powerhouse European soccer leagues.

[fyo]

The only way you could believe that Europeans don't like the NBA is if you think they prefer lower-level leagues, which would be like MLS fans disdaining EPL or the other powerhouse European soccer leagues.

Basketball is quite popular in Europe. NBA is not.

In general, basketball seems to be more of a "participation sport" in Europe, like soccer is in the US. Popular sport to play, not many watch it.

The only way you could believe that Europeans don't like the NBA is if you think they prefer lower-level leagues, which would be like MLS fans disdaining EPL or the other powerhouse European soccer leagues.

No, it wouldn't. The comparison falls flat on its face for one simple reason: People feel differently about local teams.

There's a reason the Dolphins are more popular in Miami than in North Dakota. With soccer, local viewership in European countries are much higher for top games in their own league than EPL or La Liga or whatever. Total viewership is, of course, higher for the top leagues since they can draw audiences from all over.

However, without getting even remotely accurate historical ratings for sports in Europe (NBA and NFL... and preferably a few local leagues like La Liga) this discussion is just a bunch of bs and despite spending quite a bit of time searching, I wasn't able to dig up any numbers.

The only remotely interesting thing I was able to find was that there is apparently quite a large North / South divide in Europe with regards to basketball. Not played a lot in Northern Europe, much more in Southern Europe. There were some indications that the reverse was the case for football, but none were sufficiently substantiated.

[Phishfan]

An argument over the European popularity is not going to go anywhere I think. The business models are so different. Both leagues have quite a bit of a gap in the number of games played. Anytime you look at 16 games versus 80+ you are going to have more drive to take in the 16 since it is so limited.

[Spider-Dan]

If basketball is popular in Europe but gridiron football is not, I fail to see how that translates to increased future success for the NFL in Europe over the NBA in Europe.

[MyGodWearsAHoodie]

My take

Soccer - strong buy.  Best way to predict the future success of a sport is to look at the kids programs.  Very strong growth.

Football - blue chip but expensive, nervous that it might be "too big to fail" and have complacent out of touch management.    Peewee is on the decline due to safety issues, this could slowly erode fan base. 

Baseball, blue chip, expensive, don't see any rapid grown or decline on the horizon. 

Lacrosse -  put some V.C capital in this one.  Could be the next soccer.  Rapidly growing youth programs.  Biggest problem no international event like world cup to propel it into lime life. 

Basketball -  sell

Boxing - short

Hockey - niche, not going to lose money on this stock but don't except to see huge gains either. 

Figure skating - very cyclical stock buy 6 months before the Olympics when it is at rock bottom, sell the morning of the closing ceremonies, before it crashes again.   

[Dave Gray]

I think you guys selling basketball are crazy.

[MikeO]

POSITIVE news for the NBA today which does make the sport a big-time BUY in this country. ABC just announced starting in January they will air a game in PRIME-TIME every Saturday night.

That's huge for the sport. Exposure on a real network instead of being stuck on cable for 90% of their big games

[masterfins]

POSITIVE news for the NBA today which does make the sport a big-time BUY in this country. ABC just announced starting in January they will air a game in PRIME-TIME every Saturday night.

That's huge for the sport. Exposure on a real network instead of being stuck on cable for 90% of their big games

Yeah, because very few people get cable.